2013 Roundup of Mobility, Smartphone and Tablet Forecasts & Market Estimates

For many companies, getting their mobility strategies off the ground and successful is the highest priority project they have in 2013.  The urgency to get their sales and consulting teams equipped with smart phone and tablet-based applications is accelerating.

Pilot projects have shown mobility applications can shorten sales cycles and serve as a better sales training and management platform.

Serving the sales force with these technologies is paying off across a wide spectrum of industries.  It’s also changing corporate cultures, making them more responsive as well.

With these rapid advances going on and the prediction in December, 2012 by Mary Meeker that the installed base of smartphones and tablets will exceed the total PC installed base by the 2^nd quarter of this year, market researchers are releasing forecasts more frequently than ever.  I’ve summarized the key forecasts below:

• Google’s Android operating system is dominating mobile operating systems shipments according to both Gartner and IDC and will continue to lead the market through 2016. The following graphic shows Gartner’s analysis of 57.9% of all mobile devices globally running the Android operating system in 2012.    Source: Gartner: Bring your Own Device (BYOD): Mobility Trends and Securing the Transition. Lawrence Pingree, Research Director

• IDC reported late last year that a record 136M Android units shipped in the 3^rd quarter, giving the mobile operating system a 75% market share, up from 57.5% the previous quarter.  The following tables provide insights into IDC’s market share study. Source: Android Marks Fourth Anniversary Since Launch with 75.0% Market Share in Third Quarter, According to IDC.  IDC Research.  November 1, 2012

• Android shipments had accelerated to a 66.9% CAGR from 2010 through the 3^rd quarter of 2012 based on the data IDC provided below:

• IDC also predicts Android will continue to be the dominant smartphone mobile operating system through 2016, attaining 63.8% market share  and a CAGR of 16.3% from 2012 to 2016.   Windows Phone will have the highest overall CAGR, growing from 2.6% share to 11.4% in 2016.  The following table provides an analysis of IDC’s forecast. Source: Worldwide Mobile Phone Growth Expected to Drop to 1.4% in 2012 Despite Continued Growth Of Smartphones, According to IDC on 04 Dec 2012.

• By 2016, premium smartphones will account for one in three phones sold globally, and approximately 40% of revenue.  Basic and utility phones will generate 40% of sales and 11% of revenues within the forecast period.  The following graphic shows distribution of worldwide unit and revenue forecasts for 2016. Source: Gartner Webinar: PC, Tablet and Mobile Phone Forecast, Worldwide, 3Q12 Update:  A Fresh Approach to Forecasting Ranjit Atwal, Carolina Milanesi 18 September 2012

•  Gartner is forecasting premium smartphone production will grow from 601M units in 2013 to 965M in 2106, attaining a 12.56% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in the forecast period. Source: Forecast Analysis: Mobile Phones, Tablets and Consumer Electronics, Worldwide, 2012-2016, 4Q12 Update Published: 8 January 2013 Analyst(s): Michele Reitz, Amy Teng

• During Q4, 2012 Gartner increased its annual forecast for media tablets by 149.5M units due to the success of the Apple iPad Mini and Google Nexus 7.  There continues to be rapid growth of white-box or utility and basic tablets as well, given the low costs of production attained using components from Chinese chip producers Allwinner and Rockchip.  The highest-priced white box tablet is priced today at approximately $175 based on the low cost of these components.  Presented below is the media table forecast for utility or basic media tablets. Source: Forecast Analysis: Mobile Phones, Tablets and Consumer Electronics, Worldwide, 2012-2016, 4Q12 Update Published: 8 January 2013 Analyst(s): Michele Reitz, Amy Teng

• Premium tablet production globally is projected to reach 93.6M units in 2013, increasing to 158.1M by 2016.  The premium class of tablets is generating the majority of revenue in the global tablet market.  The Apple iPad2 is considered the best-selling premium tablet globally today. Source: Forecast Analysis: Mobile Phones, Tablets and Consumer Electronics, Worldwide, 2012-2016, 4Q12 Update Published: 8 January 2013 Analyst(s): Michele Reitz, Amy Teng

• According the latest available mobile phone market share figures, Samsung has 22.9% of the worldwide market as of Q3, 2012.  This is the latest market share data available industry wide.  During Q3, 2012 customers purchased 427.7 million mobile phones, which is down approximately 3.11% from the 3rd quarter of 2011.  169.2M smartphones were sold globally in the 3^rd quarter of 2012, an increase from 36.7% from the previous quarter. Source: Market Share Analysis: Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 3Q12 Published: 13 November 2012 Analyst(s): Anshul Gupta, Carolina Milanesi, Roberta Cozza, CK Lu

• Gartner’s Market Clock of Enterprise Mobility illustrates the performance advantages of media tablets, cost advantages of the Android operating system, in addition to the competitive value of mobile collaboration and Business Intelligence (BI). The Market Clock also illustrates just how rapidly this market is maturing. Source: IT Market Clock for Enterprise Mobility, 2012 Published: 10 September 2012 ID:G00234821 by Monica Basso

• By 2017, 45% of mobile cloud services will be software as a service (SaaS)-based solutions.   Business users’ demands are already driving greater requirements for cloud-based mobile applications beyond messaging or relatively simple contact management and sales force automation systems (SFA). The following graphic illustrates how mobile cloud services are evolving by level of the cloud stack. Source: The Cloud Is Expanding to Address the Challenges of the Mobile Enterprise Published: 19 September 2012 by Phillip Redman