- Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment has turned into a race for patents and intellectual property (IP) among the world’s leading tech companies.
- By providing better search results, Netflix estimates that it is avoiding canceled subscriptions that would reduce its revenue by $1B annually.
These and other findings are from the McKinsey Global Institute Study, and discussion paper, Artificial Intelligence, The Next Digital Frontier (80 pp., PDF, free, no opt-in) published last month. McKinsey Global Institute published an article summarizing the findings titled How Artificial Intelligence Can Deliver Real Value To Companies. McKinsey interviewed more than 3,000 senior executives on the use of AI technologies, their companies’ prospects for further deployment, and AI’s impact on markets, governments, and individuals. McKinsey Analytics was also utilized in the development of this study and discussion paper.
Key takeaways from the study include the following:
- Tech giants including Baidu and Google spent between $20B to $30B on AI in 2016, with 90% of this spent on R&D and deployment, and 10% on AI acquisitions. The current rate of AI investment is 3X the external investment growth since 2013. McKinsey found that 20% of AI-aware firms are early adopters, concentrated in the high-tech/telecom, automotive/assembly and financial services industries. The graphic below illustrates the trends the study team found during their analysis.
- AI is turning into a race for patents and intellectual property (IP) among the world’s leading tech companies. McKinsey found that only a small percentage (up to 9%) of Venture Capital (VC), Private Equity (PE), and other external funding. Of all categories that have publically available data, M&A grew the fastest between 2013 And 2016 (85%).The report cites many examples of internal development including Amazon’s investments in robotics and speech recognition, and Salesforce on virtual agents and machine learning. BMW, Tesla, and Toyota lead auto manufacturers in their investments in robotics and machine learning for use in driverless cars. Toyota is planning to invest $1B in establishing a new research institute devoted to AI for robotics and driverless vehicles.
- McKinsey estimates that total annual external investment in AI was between $8B to $12B in 2016, with machine learning attracting nearly 60% of that investment. Robotics and speech recognition are two of the most popular investment areas. Investors are most favoring machine learning startups due to quickness code-based start-ups have at scaling up to include new features fast. Software-based machine learning startups are preferred over their more cost-intensive machine-based robotics counterparts that often don’t have their software counterparts do. As a result of these factors and more, Corporate M&A is soaring in this area with the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) reaching approximately 80% from 20-13 to 2016. The following graphic illustrates the distribution of external investments by category from the study.
- High tech, telecom, and financial services are the leading early adopters of machine learning and AI. These industries are known for their willingness to invest in new technologies to gain competitive and internal process efficiencies. Many start-ups have also had their start by concentrating on the digital challenges of this industries as well. The\ MGI Digitization Index is a GDP-weighted average of Europe and the United States. See Appendix B of the study for a full list of metrics and explanation of methodology. McKinsey also created an overall AI index shown in the first column below that compares key performance indicators (KPIs) across assets, usage, and labor where AI could contribute. The following is a heat map showing the relative level of AI adoption by industry and key area of asset, usage, and labor category.
- McKinsey predicts High Tech, Communications, and Financial Services will be the leading industries to adopt AI in the next three years. The competition for patents and intellectual property (IP) in these three industries is accelerating. Devices, products and services available now and on the roadmaps of leading tech companies will over time reveal the level of innovative activity going on in their R&D labs today. In financial services, for example, there are clear benefits from improved accuracy and speed in AI-optimized fraud-detection systems, forecast to be a $3B market in 2020. The following graphic provides an overview of sectors or industries leading in AI addition today and who intend to grow their investments the most in the next three years.
- Healthcare, financial services, and professional services are seeing the greatest increase in their profit margins as a result of AI adoption. McKinsey found that companies who benefit from senior management support for AI initiatives have invested in infrastructure to support its scale and have clear business goals achieve 3 to 15% percentage point higher profit margin. Of the over 3,000 business leaders who were interviewed as part of the survey, the majority expect margins to increase by up to 5% points in the next year.
- Amazon has achieved impressive results from its $775 million acquisition of Kiva, a robotics company that automates picking and packing according to the McKinsey study. “Click to ship” cycle time, which ranged from 60 to 75 minutes with humans, fell to 15 minutes with Kiva, while inventory capacity increased by 50%. Operating costs fell an estimated 20%, giving a return of close to 40% on the original investment
- Netflix has also achieved impressive results from the algorithm it uses to personalize recommendations to its 100 million subscribers worldwide. Netflix found that customers, on average, give up 90 seconds after searching for a movie. By improving search results, Netflix projects that they have avoided canceled subscriptions that would reduce its revenue by $1B annually.
- Information and Communication, Manufacturing and Financial Services will be the top three industries that gain economic growth in 2035 from AI’s benefits.
- AI will have the most positive effect on Education, Accommodation and Food Services and Construction industry profitability in 2035.
Today Accenture Research and Frontier Economics published How AI Boosts Industry Profits and Innovation. The report is downloadable here (28 pp., PDF, no opt-in).The research compares the economic growth rates of 16 industries, projecting the impact of Artifical Intelligence (AI) on global economic growth through 2035. Using Gross Value Added (GVA) as a close approximation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the study found that the more integrated AI is into economic processes, the greater potential for economic growth. One of the reports’ noteworthy findings is that AI has the potential to increase economic growth rates by a weighted average of 1.7% across all industries through 2035. Information and Communication (4.8%), Manufacturing (4.4%) and Financial Services (4.3%) are the three sectors that will see the highest annual GVA growth rates driven by AI in 2035. The bottom line is that AI has the potential to boost profitability an average of 38% by 2035 and lead to an economic boost of $14T across 16 industries in 12 economies by 2035.
Key takeaways from the study include the following:
- AI will increase economic growth by an average of 1.7% across 16 industries by 2035 with Information and Communication, manufacturing and financial services leading all industries. Accenture Research found that the Information and Communication industry has the greatest potential for economic growth from AI. Integrating AI into legacy information and communications systems will deliver significant cost, time and process-related savings quickly. Accenture predicts the time, cost and labor savings will generate up to $4.7T in GVA value in 2035. High growth areas within this industry are cloud, network, and systems security including defining enterprise-wide cloud security strategies.
- AI will most increase profitability in Education, Accommodation and Food Services and Construction industries in 2035. Personalized learning programs and automating mundane, routine tasks to free up colleges, universities, and trade school instructors to teach new learning frameworks will accelerate profitability in the education through 2035. Accommodation & Food Services and Construction are industries with manually-intensive, often isolated processes that will benefit from the increased insights and contextual intelligence from AI throughout the forecast period.
- Manufacturing’s adoption of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), smart factories and comparable initiatives are powerful catalysts driving AI adoption. Based on the proliferation of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) devices and the networks and terabytes of data they generate, Accenture predicts AI will contribute an additional $3.76T GVA to manufacturing by 2035. Supply chain management, forecasting, inventory optimization and production scheduling are all areas AI can make immediate contributions to this industry’s profits and long-term economic
- Financial Services’ greatest gains from AI will come automating and reducing the errors in mundane, manually-intensive tasks including credit scoring and first-level customer inquiries. Accenture forecasts financial services will benefit $1.2T in additional GVA in 2035 from AI. Follow-on areas of automation in Financial Services include automating market research queries through intelligent bots, and scoring and reviewing mortgages.
- By 2035 AI technologies could increase labor productivity 40% or more, doubling economic growth in 12 developed nations. Accenture finds that AI’s immediate impact on profitability is improving individual efficiency and productivity. The economies of the U.S. and Finland are projected to see the greatest economic gains from AI through 2035, with each attaining 2% higher GVA growth.The following graphic compares the 12 nations included in the first phase of the research.
- 81% of IT leaders are currently investing in or planning to invest in Artificial Intelligence (AI).
- Cowen predicts AI will drive user productivity to materially higher levels, with Microsoft at the forefront.
- Digital Marketing/Marketing Automation, Salesforce Automation (CRM) and Data Analytics are the top three areas ripe for AI/ML adoption.
- According to angel.co, there are 2,200+ Artificial Intelligence start-ups, and well over 50% have emerged in just the last two years.
- Cowen sees Salesforce ($CRM), Adobe ($ADBE) and ServiceNow ($NOW) as well-positioned to deliver and monetize new AI-based application services.
These and many other fascinating insights are from the Cowen and Company Multi-Sector Equity Research study, Artificial Intelligence: Entering A Golden Age For Data Science (142 pp., PDF, client access reqd). The study is based on interviews with 146 leading AI researchers, entrepreneurs and VC executives globally who are involved in the field of artificial intelligence and related technologies. Please see the Appendix of the study for a thorough overview of the methodology. This study isn’t representative of global AI, data engineering and machine learning (ML) adoption trends. It does, however, provide a glimpse into the current and future direction of AI, data engineering, and machine learning. Cowen finds the market is still nascent, with CIOs eager to invest in new AI-related initiatives. Time-to-market, customer messaging, product positioning and the value proposition of AI solutions will be critical factors for winning over new project investments.
Key takeaways from the study include the following:
- Digital Marketing/Marketing Automation, Salesforce Automation (CRM) and Data Analytics are the top three areas ripe for AI/ML adoption. Customer self-service, Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Human Resource Management (HRM) and E-Commerce are additional areas that have upside potential for AI/ML adoption. The following graphic provides an overview of the areas in software that Cowen found the greater potential for AI/ML investment.
- 81% of IT leaders are currently investing in or planning to invest in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Based on the study, CIOs have a new mandate to integrate AI into IT technology stacks. The study found that 43% are evaluating and doing a Proof of Concept (POC) and 38% are already live and planning to invest more. The following graphic provides an overview of company readiness for machine learning and AI projects.
- Market forecasts vary, but all consistently predict explosive growth. IDC predicts that the Cognitive Systems and AI market (including hardware & services) will grow from $8B in 2016 to $47B in 2020, attaining a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 55%. This forecast includes $18B in software applications, $5B in software platforms, and $24B in services and hardware. IBM claims that Cognitive Computing is a $2T market, including $200B in healthcare/life sciences alone. Tractica forecasts direct and indirect applications of AI software to grow from $1.4B in 2016 to $59.8B by 2025, a 52% CAGR.
- According to CBInsights, the number of financing transactions to AI start-ups increased 10x over the last six years, from 67 in 2011 to 698 in 2016. Accenture states that the total number of AI start-ups has increased 20-fold since 2011. The top verticals include FinTech, Healthcare, Transportation and Retail/e-Commerce. The following graphic provides an overview of the AI annual funding history from 2011 to 2016.
- Algorithmic trading, image recognition/tagging, and patient data processing are predicted to the b top AI uses cases by 2025. Tractica forecasts predictive maintenance and content distribution on social media will be the fourth and fifth highest revenue producing AI uses cases over the next eight years. The following graphic compares the top 10 uses cases by projected global revenue.
- Machine Learning is predicted to generate the most revenue and is attracting the most venture capital investment in all areas of AI. Venture Scanner found that ML raised $3.5B to date (from 400+ companies), far ahead of the next category, Natural Language Processing, which has seen just over $1Bn raised to date (from 200+ companies). Venture Scanner believes that Machine Learning Applications and Machine Learning Platforms are two relatively early stage markets that stand to have some of the greatest market disruptions.
- Cowen predicts that an Intelligent App Stack will gain rapid adoption in enterprises as IT departments shift from system-of-record to system-of-intelligence apps, platforms, and priorities. The future of enterprise software is being defined by increasingly intelligent applications today, and this will accelerate in the future. Cowen predicts it will be commonplace for enterprise apps to have machine learning algorithms that can provide predictive insights across a broad base of scenarios encompassing a company’s entire value chain. The potential exists for enterprise apps to change selling and buying behavior, tailoring specific responses based on real-time data to optimize discounting, pricing, proposal and quoting decisions.
- According to angel.co, there are 2,200+ Artificial Intelligence start-ups, and well over 50% have emerged in just the last two years. Machine Learning-based Applications and Deep Learning Neural Networks are experiencing the largest and widest amount of investment attention in the enterprise.
- Accenture leverages machine learning in 40% of active Analytics engagements, and nearly 80% of proposed Analytics opportunities today. Cowen found that Accenture’s view is that they are in the early stages of AI technology adoption with their enterprise clients. Accenture sees the AI market growing exponentially, reaching $400B in spending by 2020. Their customers have moved on from piloting and testing AI to reinventing their business strategies and models.