Posts tagged ‘cybersecurity’

Nov 9

Why Gartner and IDC are $86B apart on 2027 cybersecurity spending

Chart comparing Gartner's and IDC's cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027: $276.1 billion versus $361.9 billion, an $85.8 billion difference explained by scope, while 2027 growth rates sit within 1.2 points at 11.2 to 12.4 percent — Cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027 compared. Gartner and IDC are $85.8B apart on market size, yet their 2027 growth rates sit within 1.2 points of each other. Click any chart to open it full size. Sources linked below, analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Four research firms have now published cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027. Their numbers do not agree, and the disagreement itself is more instructive than any one total. Gartner’s 3Q26 forecast puts worldwide information security end-user spending at $276.1 billion in 2027. IDC’s latest published figure is $361.9 billion. Omdia has 2026 at $315 billion but keeps its 2027 figure behind a paywall. Forrester surveys the people who hold the budgets instead of sizing the market, and 60% of them expect at least a 5% increase next year.

Put side by side, the spread looks like a dispute about demand. Growth rates say otherwise. Every firm’s 2026 rate lands between 12.7% and 13.6%, while each 2027 rate sits between 11.2% and 12.4%. What separates a $276 billion market from a $362 billion one is what each firm decides to count. This post reconciles the four cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027, shows where the scope differences come from and identifies the one place where the firms genuinely disagree. That place is the pace of deceleration after 2027.

Five takeaways from the cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027

The 2027 gap is $86 billion, and it is almost entirely definitional. IDC’s $361.9 billion includes security hardware and spans 38 technology markets across 28 industries. Gartner’s $276.1 billion covers 41 categories of security software, security services and network security equipment but no other hardware. Neither firm is wrong. Each draws the market boundary in a different place.
Growth is the point of agreement. Gartner has 2026 at 12.7% in constant currency (13.6% in current dollars) and 2027 at 11.2%. IDC’s V2 release has 2026 at 13.2% and its event page has 2027 at 12.4%. Omdia also has 2026 at 13%. Any of the four cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027 would describe the same healthy, low-teens market.
Omdia’s services share is the biggest single difference. Omdia puts services at roughly two-thirds of cybersecurity spending, against a 37.8% services share in Gartner’s forecast. In dollar terms, Omdia’s June 2026 services figure of $204.8 billion is $111 billion above Gartner’s $93.5 billion. That alone is more than the entire gap between the two firms’ totals.
The real disagreement is after 2027. Gartner’s constant-currency growth path declines every year, falling from 12.7% in 2026 until it reaches 9.6% in 2030. That is a 10.8% compound rate for 2025 to 2030. IDC describes a “12.5% five-year path to $512.9B by 2030.” By 2030 the two long-range numbers are $140 billion apart.
Forrester’s budget signal improved year over year. In its 2027 planning survey, 16% of security decision-makers expect a budget increase above 10%, while 44% expect 5% to 10%. A year earlier the figures were 15% and 40%. Budgets are growing faster in the minds of the people who set them than a year ago.

What each firm’s cybersecurity spending forecasts say for 2026 and 2027

The table below holds the figures each firm has made public, together with the scope that goes with them. Read the scope column first, because the totals mean little without it. Gartner’s number is end-user spending in current dollars from the detailed forecast file. IDC’s figures come from two places. Its V2 Worldwide Security Spending Guide release gives $310.42 billion for 2026. A separate IT Security event page then gives $361.9 billion for 2027 and $512.9 billion for 2030. Omdia’s 2026 figure appears in its October 1, 2026 channel analysis. Forrester’s numbers are survey percentages rather than dollars.

The published figures side by side

Table comparing Gartner, IDC, Omdia and Forrester cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2026 and 2027 with long-range figures, 2026 total bars and scope notes: Gartner $247.5bn and $276.1bn, IDC $310.4bn and $361.9bn, Omdia $315bn for 2026, Forrester 55 percent and 60 percent expecting at least a 5 percent budget increase — What each firm has published for 2026 and 2027, with the scope behind each number. Bars compare the firms’ 2026 totals on their own scopes. Gartner growth rates and CAGR are calculations from the detailed forecast file. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

One caution on IDC’s published figures

IDC’s own public figures do not fully reconcile. A 2027 total of $361.9 billion that is “up 12.4% year on year” implies a 2026 base of about $322 billion. That is about $11.6 billion above the $310.42 billion in the V2 release. A 12.5% five-year path to $512.9 billion implies a 2025 base near $285 billion, while the V2 growth rate implies $274 billion. The likeliest explanation is that the event page draws on a later version of the guide. I show both as published and treat them as two snapshots rather than one series.

Line chart of Gartner's 2024 to 2030 worldwide security spending forecast against IDC's published points for 2026, 2027 and 2030 and Omdia's 2026 figure, showing gaps of $86 billion in 2027 and $140 billion in 2030 — Gartner’s full 2024-2030 series against the points IDC and Omdia have published. The IDC-Gartner gap grows from $86B in 2027 to $140B in 2030. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Why IDC’s cybersecurity spending forecasts run $63 billion above Gartner’s in 2026 and $86 billion above in 2027

Start with what each firm counts. Gartner’s forecast is end-user spending across three markets. Security software is $126.9 billion in 2026, security services $93.5 billion and network security equipment $27.0 billion. That equipment is also the only hardware in a forecast Gartner publishes as 41 categories across 47 country and sub-regional rows. The 2026 total still includes $9.0 billion of consumer security software. Once the consumer line is stripped out, the business-only figure is $238.4 billion for 2026 and $266.8 billion for 2027.

IDC built its Worldwide Security Spending Guide on a wider frame. It covers 38 technology markets, including security hardware beyond network appliances, and then slices them by 28 industries and 48 countries. IDC said in March that software would be more than half of its $308 billion 2026 total and grow fastest, at 14%. The October V2 release lifted 2026 to $310.42 billion and the growth rate to 13.2%. That combination means IDC revised 2025 down and 2026 up at the same time.

Both firms tell roughly the same software-led growth story, although about differently sized markets. A $63 billion gap in 2026 that holds its proportion in 2027 is what a fixed scope difference looks like. Demand disagreements leave a different trail. If IDC saw stronger demand than Gartner, the gap would widen quickly. It does widen, but slowly, and almost entirely because of the long-range growth assumption discussed below.

Stacked bar chart showing how Gartner, IDC, Omdia and Forrester each divide cybersecurity spending in 2026: Gartner 51 percent software, 38 percent services, 11 percent network equipment. IDC more than half software. Omdia one-third technology and two-thirds services. Forrester 40 percent software and about 29 percent personnel — Each firm’s 2026 split of cybersecurity spending, in its own categories. Omdia’s two-thirds services share and Forrester’s personnel line have no equivalent in Gartner’s forecast. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Omdia’s two-thirds services share is the largest definitional split

Omdia’s $315 billion looks close to IDC’s $310 billion, but it gets there by a different route. Omdia says technology, meaning licenses, subscriptions and appliances, is roughly one-third of cybersecurity spending. Services spanning advisory, design and managed security are the other two-thirds. Its June 2026 figures were $106.4 billion for technology and $204.8 billion for services, out of $311 billion.

Gartner’s forecast inverts that ratio. Software plus network security equipment is $153.9 billion in 2026, $47.5 billion more than Omdia’s technology figure. Gartner’s security services total of $93.5 billion sits $111.3 billion below Omdia’s services figure, and that one difference is larger than the $63.5 billion gap between Omdia’s June total and Gartner’s.

Managed security shows how far apart the definitions sit. Gartner’s Managed Security Services subsegment is $32.3 billion in 2026, with managed detection and response at $11.5 billion of that and security operations at $15.6 billion. Omdia’s managed security services figure for 2026 is $106 billion, growing 14%, as cited by WithSecure’s MSP Cybersecurity Buyer’s Guide from Omdia’s MSSP Trends and Predictions. That one number is larger than Gartner’s entire security services market. Omdia is counting partner-delivered services that Gartner either books as product revenue or leaves outside the forecast.

For anyone selling security services, the implication is simple. Omdia’s figures describe the partner economy, and Gartner’s describe the services revenue that vendors recognize on their own books. Both are real answers, but to different questions.

Paired horizontal bar chart comparing Gartner and Omdia 2026 cybersecurity spending by type: technology $153.9 billion versus $106.4 billion, services $93.5 billion versus $204.8 billion, managed security $32.3 billion versus $106 billion — Gartner and Omdia 2026 figures by type. Omdia counts $111B more in services than Gartner, and its managed security figure alone is larger than Gartner’s total services market. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

The one real disagreement is how fast growth slows after 2027

Once scope is set aside, the four cybersecurity spending forecasts agree on 2027 and differ on what follows. Gartner’s constant-currency growth falls every year in the 3Q26 file, from 12.7% in 2026 to 11.2% in 2027, 10.4% in 2028, 10.0% in 2029 and 9.6% in 2030, so the compound rate for 2025 to 2030 works out to 10.8%. The market adds $28.7 billion in 2027 and then $96.7 billion over the following three years, which is strong growth on a decelerating path.

IDC’s published path barely decelerates. After 13.2% in 2026 and 12.4% in 2027, the firm describes a 12.5% five-year compound rate to $512.9 billion by 2030. Getting from $361.9 billion in 2027 to $512.9 billion in 2030 requires 12.3% a year for three more years, which is flat growth rather than a slide toward single digits. By 2030 the gap between IDC’s compound rate and Gartner’s year-on-year rate reaches 2.9 percentage points.

Why the 2030 numbers are $140 billion apart

That difference compounds, so the dollar gap widens every year. In 2027 the two totals are $86 billion apart, and by 2030 the distance reaches $140 billion, or about 38% of Gartner’s own 2030 total. Had IDC’s figure grown at Gartner’s rates from 2027 instead, it would reach about $489 billion in 2030. The gap would then be $116 billion, leaving $24 billion that comes from the growth assumption alone.

That leaves the 2028 to 2030 call as a call about AI. Either AI-driven security demand sustains low-teens growth, or platform consolidation and budget pressure pull it toward 10%. Consolidation is the Gartner case, while sustained AI demand is IDC’s. Gartner’s own forecast assumptions also back that reading. By 2029 it expects 52% of organizations to use fewer than 10 cybersecurity tools, up from 21% in 2025, according to Forecast Analysis: Information Security, Worldwide, 2026 (G00838442).

Line chart of year-on-year growth in worldwide security spending showing Gartner's constant-currency path falling from 12.7 percent in 2026 to 9.6 percent in 2030 against IDC's 13.2 percent, 12.4 percent and 12.5 percent five-year compound rate — Growth rates in the cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027 and beyond. Gartner’s path declines every year through 2030, while IDC’s published points and its 12.5% five-year rate stay above 12%. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Forrester measures budgets, not markets, and the mood improved

Forrester built its Budget Planning Guide 2027: Security And Risk Leaders Must Confront The AI Cost Explosion from a survey of more than 2,600 business and technology decision-makers. The guide produces no market size, and that is useful here. Budgets include headcount, training, insurance and now what Forrester calls “token economics,” the inference costs of running AI inside security operations, none of which any vendor forecast counts.

The headline is a modest, consistent improvement. For 2027, 60% of security decision-makers expect their budgets to rise by at least 5%, with 16% expecting more than 10% and 44% expecting 5% to 10%. A year earlier the same questions for 2026 returned 55%, split 15% and 40%. Across all technology decision-makers, 82% expect budgets to rise in 2027, although the regional detail for 2026 showed how uneven that optimism was. Only 9% of North American security leaders expected more than 10% growth, against 14% in Europe and 22% in Asia Pacific.

Forrester’s budget composition data explains why its figures do not map onto Gartner’s or IDC’s cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027. Citing Information Services Group data for 2025, Forrester says software is about 40% of security budgets. That outpaces hardware and outsourcing combined and, in Forrester’s wording, exceeds personnel-related costs by 11%. Read as percentage points, that puts personnel near 29% of the budget, the second-largest line a CISO carries and one that no market forecast includes. A security budget growing 5% to 10% is consistent with a vendor market growing 11% to 13%, provided staff costs grow more slowly than software and services. Two years of consolidation and automation point that way.

Stacked bar chart of Forrester survey results showing 55 percent of security decision-makers expected at least a 5 percent budget increase for 2026 and 60 percent expect it for 2027, with a side panel showing 9 percent of North American, 14 percent of European and 22 percent of Asia Pacific leaders expecting more than 10 percent growth for 2026 — Forrester’s security budget surveys for 2026 and 2027. The share expecting at least a 5% increase rose from 55% to 60%. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

What Gartner’s CISO research adds to the demand picture

Gartner’s own planning research for the same cycle points the same way, and it adds two cost drivers that none of the market forecasts isolates. CISO Agenda Priority: Align Cybersecurity Investment With Board Risk Appetite (G00862663) states that the cybersecurity challenge “is no longer primarily a budget problem” and that boards are deliberately increasing risk appetite to accelerate AI adoption. The money is there, so the argument is about where it goes.

On staffing, the 2027 Planning Guide for Cybersecurity (G00856222) says the SOC workforce will transform rather than shrink as AI agents arrive. Gartner projects that by 2028 security operations teams will employ 50% more engineers than traditional analysts, which keeps Forrester’s personnel line intact even as vendor spending grows. The Cybersecurity Executive Outlook, 4Q26 (G00861818) reports that 51% of CISOs have not begun any post-quantum cryptography activity and predicts that organizations that do not begin piloting PQC by 2027 will pay 200% higher costs for full migration. Those are reasons for 2027 budgets to keep rising regardless of how a market is scoped.

The securing-AI gap is wider than the market gap

The sharpest divergence between the cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027 is in the newest category. Gartner’s securing-AI forecast appears in Forecasting the $16.4 Billion Opportunity in Securing AI (G00853861) and carries into the 2Q26 and 3Q26 information security forecasts. It has spending on securing AI at about $3 billion in 2026 before rising to $16 billion in 2030. That implies growth of roughly 52% a year, although from a small base. The category sits inside Gartner’s security software total rather than beside it.

IDC’s IT Security event page states that spending on securing AI will reach $58.3 billion in 2027, “compounding at 37.8% a year.” It calls this “the fastest-moving segment in security.” The source is IDC’s Worldwide Artificial Intelligence Security Spending Forecast, 2025-2029. That 2027 figure is 3.6 times Gartner’s 2030 figure, three years earlier.

A gap of that size comes from definitions. IDC’s event page does not say what the $58.3 billion counts, and its scale points to a far broader set of spending than Gartner’s, plausibly including AI-enabled security tooling and services. Gartner’s securing-AI line covers only the spend on protecting AI models, agents and data. A third number, Gartner’s AI-amplified security forecast, reaches $204 billion by 2030 and is a different construct again. The firm’s February analysis says so itself, stating that AI-amplified security “is not additive spending and will not change security spending” (G00838442). I covered it in an earlier post linked below. Anyone quoting an “AI security market size” needs to say which of these three definitions they mean.

Bar chart comparing Gartner's securing AI forecast of $3 billion in 2026 and $16 billion in 2030 with IDC's $58.3 billion securing AI figure for 2027 — Gartner’s securing-AI forecast against IDC’s. IDC’s 2027 figure is 3.6 times Gartner’s 2030 figure, a difference of definition rather than demand. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Nearly half of the gap sits in the United States

Regional detail shows where IDC’s extra scope lands. IDC’s March release put the United States at $150 billion for 2026. Gartner’s 3Q26 file has the United States at $119.5 billion, so the $30.5 billion difference is nearly half of the $63 billion gap between the two totals. Gartner then has the US rising to $133.6 billion in 2027 and $181.1 billion in 2030.

Europe is closer than the worldwide totals imply. IDC has Western Europe at $69 billion, while Gartner’s Europe region, which includes Central and Eastern European countries, sums to $64.0 billion. Even a broader Gartner region lands $5 billion below a narrower IDC one. In Asia/Pacific excluding Japan and China, IDC’s $26 billion sits $8.3 billion above the $17.7 billion in Gartner’s Mature and Emerging Asia/Pacific regions combined. As a ratio, that is the widest regional gap of the three. IDC runs at 1.47 times Gartner’s figure there, against 1.26 in the United States and 1.08 in Europe.

The US-heavy gap fits the scope story, because the United States has the deepest market for security hardware, managed services and industry-specific security spending. Those are also the three areas where IDC’s definitions extend furthest beyond Gartner’s.

Dumbbell chart comparing Gartner and IDC 2026 security spending by region: United States $119.5 billion versus $150 billion, Europe $64 billion versus $69 billion for Western Europe, Asia/Pacific excluding Japan and China $17.7 billion versus $26 billion — Gartner and IDC 2026 regional figures. The United States accounts for $30.5B of the $63B gap between the two firms’ worldwide totals. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

How to use four cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027 that do not agree

Pick the forecast that matches your question, then stay with it. Vendor revenue planning and competitive share analysis belong on Gartner’s end-user spending basis, because that is how most public security vendors are benchmarked. Channel and services strategy belongs on Omdia’s partner-centric total, while hardware-inclusive or industry-vertical sizing belongs on IDC. Switching bases mid-analysis is how a 12% growth market gets misreported as a 30% one.
Quote growth rates before you quote totals. The four cybersecurity spending forecasts agree that 2026 grows 12.7% to 13.6% and 2027 grows 11.2% to 12.4%. Those are the defensible numbers, while totals carry scope assumptions that most audiences will not check.
Treat 2028 to 2030 as the open question. Gartner’s path heads for 9.6% growth by 2030 while IDC’s stays near 12.5%. Plans built on the IDC trajectory have about $140 billion more market to divide by 2030 than plans built on Gartner. Watch Gartner’s 4Q26 update and IDC’s next guide version for which way the 2028 numbers move.
Use Forrester as the demand-side check. The share of security leaders expecting at least a 5% budget increase rose from 55% to 60%. If it keeps rising, the vendor forecasts’ low-teens growth has budget support. A decline would instead make Gartner’s deceleration the base case.
Never cite an AI security market size without its definition. $3 billion, $16 billion, $58.3 billion and $204 billion are all current analyst figures for some version of “AI security.” They describe four different things.

Frequently asked questions

What do the cybersecurity spending forecasts say the market is worth in 2027?

Among the published cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027, Gartner’s is the lowest at $276.1 billion in worldwide information security end-user spending. That is up 11.6% in current dollars and 11.2% in constant currency. IDC’s published figure is $361.9 billion, up 12.4%. The $86 billion difference reflects IDC’s broader scope, which includes security hardware across 38 technology markets, and the two firms’ 2027 growth rates sit within 1.2 points of each other.

Why do IDC’s cybersecurity spending forecasts run higher than Gartner’s for 2027?

IDC’s Worldwide Security Spending Guide counts hardware, software and services across 38 markets, 28 industries and 48 countries. Gartner counts security software, security services and network security equipment in 41 categories. Nearly half of the 2026 gap, $30.5 billion of $63 billion, is in the United States, because hardware, managed services and industry-specific spending are largest there.

What does Omdia forecast for cybersecurity spending?

Omdia’s October 2026 figure is $315 billion for 2026, up 13%, with technology about one-third and services about two-thirds. Its earlier June 2026 breakdown was $106.4 billion for technology and $204.8 billion for services on a $311 billion total. Omdia’s 2027 and five-year figures remain available only to subscribers, unlike its 2026 headline.

What does Forrester say about 2027 security budgets?

In Forrester’s Budget Planning Guide 2027 survey, 60% of security decision-makers expect at least a 5% budget increase for 2027. Of those, 16% expect more than 10% and 44% expect 5% to 10%. The previous year’s survey for 2026 returned 55%, 15% and 40%.

Are the cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2026 and 2027 rising or falling?

For 2026, every firm’s number is higher than when the year began. Gartner’s went from $244.2 billion in 4Q25 to $248.2 billion in 2Q26, then eased to $247.5 billion in 3Q26. IDC’s rose from $308 billion to $310.42 billion, while Omdia’s rose from $311 billion to $315 billion. For the longer range, Gartner forecasts growth slowing to 9.6% by 2030, while IDC’s published five-year rate holds at 12.5%.

How I built this analysis

I computed the Gartner figures from the detailed data file behind Forecast: Information Security, Worldwide, 2024-2030, 3Q26 (G00862059). That file contains 13,489 rows of end-user spending by year, region, country, market, subsegment and category, in both current and constant currency. Its accompanying report confirms the totals and the 2029 and 2030 growth rates, and Forecast Analysis: Information Security, Worldwide, 2026 (G00838442) supplies the forecast assumptions quoted above. CISO and planning-guide statements come from CISO Agenda Priority: Align Cybersecurity Investment With Board Risk Appetite (G00862663), 2027 Planning Guide for Cybersecurity (G00856222) and The Cybersecurity Executive Outlook, 4Q26 (G00861818). Totals, growth rates, segment shares, regional sums and the 2025-2030 CAGR are my calculations from that file. Securing-AI figures come from Forecasting the $16.4 Billion Opportunity in Securing AI (G00853861), as carried into the 2Q26 and 3Q26 forecasts.

Where the IDC, Omdia and Forrester figures come from

IDC figures are as published in its March 3, 2026 press release, its October 28, 2026 blog on the V2 release of the 2026 Worldwide Security Spending Guide, and its IT Security event page. That page cites the spending guide and the Worldwide Artificial Intelligence Security Spending Forecast, 2025-2029. The implied 2026 base of about $322 billion in the event-page series is my calculation rather than an IDC figure.

Omdia figures come from its October 1, 2026 channel analysis as well as the June 2026 figures published by Omdia’s Jay McBain. The managed security figure is as cited by WithSecure from Omdia’s MSSP Trends and Predictions. Forrester figures come from its Budget Planning Guide 2027 press release and coverage, together with its July 2025 Security Planning 2026 blog and its Predictions 2027 release. The Forrester personnel share of about 29% reads Forrester’s statement that software exceeds personnel-related costs by 11% as a percentage-point gap below the 40% software share. Read as a relative 11%, personnel would be about 36%, and either reading leaves personnel as the second-largest budget line.

I built all charts comparing the cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027 from these figures and labeled each with its sources. Where a figure is an estimate or a derived value, the chart and text say so.

Related comparisons

Sources

Gartner, Forecast: Information Security, Worldwide, 2024-2030, 3Q26 (G00862059), detailed data file. Subscription required.
Gartner, Forecast: Information Security, Worldwide, 2024-2030, 2Q26 Update (G00855892). Subscription required.
Gartner, Forecasting the $16.4 Billion Opportunity in Securing AI (G00853861). Subscription required.
Gartner, Forecast Analysis: Information Security, Worldwide, 2026 (G00838442). Subscription required.
Gartner, CISO Agenda Priority: Align Cybersecurity Investment With Board Risk Appetite (G00862663). Subscription required.
Gartner, 2027 Planning Guide for Cybersecurity (G00856222). Subscription required.
Gartner, The Cybersecurity Executive Outlook, 4Q26 (G00861818). Subscription required.
IDC, Worldwide Security Spending Guide press release, March 3, 2026: https://www.idc.com/resource-center/press-releases/wwsecuritysg/
IDC, “Security Budgets Are Up. CEOs Still Rank It Their Top Tech Risk,” October 28, 2026: https://www.idc.com/resource-center/blog/security-budgets-are-up-ceos-still-rank-it-their-top-tech-risk/
IDC, IT Security event page, “Five figures shaping the 2027 decision cycle”: https://www.idc.com/events/become-a-sponsor/it-security/
IDC, Worldwide Artificial Intelligence Security Spending Forecast, 2025-2029 (US54233026): https://my.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=US54233026
Omdia, “Navigating AI’s transformation of cybersecurity in the channel,” October 1, 2026: https://omdia.tech.informa.com/blogs/2026/sep/navigating-ais-transformation-of-cybersecurity-in-the-channel
Omdia (Jay McBain), worldwide cybersecurity market 2026 figures, June 2026: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jaymcbain_the-global-cybersecurity-market-will-hit-activity-7448484238804471808-50nb
Omdia, Worldwide Cybersecurity Short-Term Forecasts by Quarter, 3Q26 (subscriber): https://omdia.tech.informa.com/om147788/worldwide-cybersecurity-short-term-forecasts-by-quarter–3q26
WithSecure, MSP Cybersecurity Buyer’s Guide 2026, citing Omdia MSSP Trends and Predictions: https://www.withsecure.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/MSP_Buyers_Guide_2026.pdf
Canalys, global cybersecurity forecast 2025 (via Trend Micro): https://www.trendmicro.com/content/dam/trendmicro/global/en/core/docs/report/rpt-canalys-globalcybersecurity_matrix.pdf
Forrester, Budget Planning Guide 2027: Security And Risk Leaders Must Confront The AI Cost Explosion: https://www.forrester.com/report/budget-planning-guide-2027-security-and-risk-leaders-must-confront-the-ai-cost-explosion/RES197215
Forrester, 2027 Budget Planning Guides press release, July 15, 2026: https://www.forrester.com/press-newsroom/forresters-2027-budget-planning-guides/
IT Brief, “Forrester warns bigger AI budgets won’t fix weak ops,” July 17, 2026: https://itbrief.ie/story/forrester-warns-bigger-ai-budgets-won-t-fix-weak-ops
Forrester, “Security Planning 2026: Budget To Manage Volatility,” July 15, 2025: https://www.forrester.com/blogs/security-planning-2026-budget-to-manage-volatility-seize-opportunities-and-avoid-threats/
Forrester, Predictions 2027 release: https://investor.forrester.com/news-releases/news-release-details/forresters-2027-technology-and-security-predictions-ai-will/

This post is my personal analysis and does not represent my employer.

Oct 26

20 Cybersecurity Startups to Watch in 2027

Cyera paid $1 billion for Oasis Security and closed the deal on Sept. 3, 2026, 37 days after Globes reported the agreement on July 28. In late June, Oasis had made CRN’s list of the 10 hottest cybersecurity startups of 2026 so far. Startup lists go stale fast. Notable Capital’s Rising in Cyber 2026 names 30 companies picked by 150 CISOs and security executives, with funding data as of Q1 2026. A CISO setting a 2027 budget needs something narrower from both lists. Which young vendors produced evidence this year that they will still be independent, shipping and staffed when the contract renews?

Dot chart of each company's latest 2026 funding round by announcement date, showing 14 of the 20 rounds landing after March 31 and 12 after CRN's June 26 list, with markers for Notable Capital's Q1 data, the CRN list and Cyera completing its Oasis acquisition on Sept. 3 — Each dot is a company’s latest verified round, placed on its announcement date. Keycard and 7AI raised in late 2025 and are not shown.

That question picked these 20. Every company here produced at least one verified 2026 event beyond a valuation, whether a priced round, a named production customer, a shipped product or a public technical result. Valuation earned no one a spot. Eleven of the 20 appear on neither the CRN nor the Notable list.

Eighteen of the 20 closed their latest round in 2026. That money turns into hires, product launches and sales coverage next year, when buyers will feel it. Several companies here have already tied specific 2027 deliverables to the cash.

The research cutoff is Oct. 17, 2026. To qualify, a company had to be privately held and independent on that date. Late-stage companies qualify under the same rule as seed-stage ones, so Cyera and Island stay in. A completed acquisition disqualifies a company. So does an announced sale, which is why Oasis is out.

Securing AI agents company profiles for Onyx Security, HiddenLayer, Reco and Harmonic Security, showing each company's latest verified round, total funding where disclosed, buyer, 2027 watch item and what to validate — Securing AI agents at a glance. Bars share one scale across all six sections.

Oct 12

Gartner says frontier AI makes patch speed a vanity metric. Tolerable exposure time replaces it.

Gartner frontier AI vulnerability management hero chart showing 2026 and 2030 spending on managed security operations, vulnerability assessment, threat intelligence and network detection and response, with six tiles summarizing Gartner's findings on exploit timing, patch metrics, testing bottlenecks, actions, regulator deadlines and the 2026 trends — Gartner says frontier AI turns patch speed into a vanity metric. Spending bars show the exposure-focused categories in Gartner’s 3Q26 security forecast. Click any chart to open it full size. Sources: Gartner (G00859901, Aug. 6, 2026; G00862059, Sept. 24, 2026), analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Gartner’s new research on frontier AI vulnerability management says the patch-speed metric most security teams report to their boards no longer measures anything useful.

Gartner analysts Rob McMillan and Alex Michaels put it bluntly in a research note published August 6: “Measuring ‘how fast we patch’ is a vanity metric; the only metric that matters now is ‘tolerable exposure time.'”

The note covers one of Gartner’s nine top cybersecurity trends for 2026: frontier AI models transforming vulnerability management. Its central argument runs against most vendor messaging. The real shock from frontier AI is not faster attackers. It is the volume of vulnerabilities that vendors and open-source projects will now find in their own code, and the flood of urgent updates that follows.

Gartner calls it a supply side shock, one that “permanently breaks traditional volume-based patching processes.”

I built this analysis from Gartner’s research note (G00859901) and paired it with category data from Gartner’s 3Q26 information security forecast (G00862059), which sizes the markets security teams will buy from as they shift to exposure management.

The bars in the hero chart show 2026 and 2030 end-user spending for four exposure-focused categories. Six tiles underneath summarize the note’s core findings.
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Oct 5

Gartner’s $247.5B security forecast makes post-quantum firewall refreshes the only upgrade through 2030

Gartner information security forecast 2024 to 2030 showing spending rising from $192.9 billion to $372.8 billion by software, services, network and consumer security, with six KPI tiles below the chart for 2026 and 2030 totals, new spending, the firewall revision, 2027 firewall growth and securing AI — Security spending climbs to $372.8B by 2030, and post-quantum firewall refreshes drew the only upgrade. Click any chart to open it full size. Source: Gartner (G00862059, Sept. 24, 2026), analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

The 3Q26 Gartner information security forecast raised exactly one growth rate.

Gartner now projects firewall equipment spending to grow 13.4% in 2027 in constant currency, up from the 7.8% in its June forecast. Network security equipment overall rises to 12.8% from 8.7%. Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is the cause. Many installed firewalls can’t run the new algorithms, which forces early replacement.

Every other business category in the 41-category forecast kept the constant-currency outlook it had 91 days earlier.

Published September 24, the forecast puts worldwide end-user spending at $247.5 billion in 2026, up 13.6% in current U.S. dollars and 12.7% in constant currency.

Spending reaches $372.8 billion by 2030. Gartner frames that as $373 billion and a 10.8% compound annual growth rate in constant currency from 2025 through 2030.

I built this analysis from Gartner’s 3Q26 report (G00862059), the full detailed dataset of 13,489 rows covering 47 countries, 9 regions, 41 categories and 7 years, and a line-by-line comparison against the 2Q26 file Gartner released in June (G00855892).

For the 2Q26 update that first counted securing AI inside the forecast, see Gartner’s $248.2B security forecast makes securing AI the only segment accelerating through 2030.

Each bar in the hero chart stacks four parts of Gartner’s forecast in current U.S. dollars. Navy is business security software, mid-blue is security services, sky blue is network security and light blue is consumer security software. Bold figures above the bars give each year’s total, with Gartner’s constant-currency growth rate in italics.

Six tiles underneath carry the 2026 and 2030 totals, the $125.4 billion in new spending between 2026 and 2030, the 2030 firewall revision in constant currency, the change in Gartner’s 2027 firewall growth forecast and the securing AI trajectory.

Both the 56% software share and the $80.5 billion software tile include consumer security software.
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Aug 17

Gartner’s AI security forecast exposes 162x services growth that still trails software 2 to 1 in new spending

Gartner AI-amplified security forecast, growth multiple versus net-new dollars by segment, 2024 to 2030

Growth multiple versus net-new dollars added, 2024 to 2030. The segment ranking inverts between the two measures.

Every chart and table in this analysis opens full size when you click it.

Security services inside Gartner’s AI-amplified security market were worth $364 million in 2024. Gartner now projects $59 billion by 2030. That is 162 times larger in six years, compounding at 133.5% annually, the steepest curve anywhere in the forecast. I have tracked this forecast through every quarterly update, and no segment has ever moved like this one.

What Is AI-Amplified Security?

Gartner’s term for the share of existing security spending flowing to products with AI built in. Endpoint protection, firewalls, identity, and network security that now embed AI-driven detection, autonomous remediation, and agent-based response. Not a new category. Existing budgets redirecting toward AI-native capabilities. The companion forecast for securing AI itself reaches $16.4 billion in 2030. Gartner publicly confirms the 75%-by-2028 adoption projection.

The share table and the dollar table tell different stories. Software’s share of this market falls from 87.1% to 61.3%, and services picks up almost every point software gives up. Read only that and you conclude software is losing. Run the arithmetic on net-new spending and software still collects $116.5 billion of the $194.4 billion the market adds between 2024 and 2030. That is 60 cents of every new dollar, and it puts software ahead of services 2 to 1 on net-new spending.

Both things are true at once, and the gap between them is where security budgets get set wrong.

The numbers come from Gartner’s Forecast Analysis: AI-Amplified Security, Worldwide, 2026 (G00846160, August 4, 2026) by Shailendra Upadhyay. It is the first time Gartner has split AI-amplified security into software, services, and network security across a full seven-year window. The totals reconcile cleanly with the 2Q26 AI spending forecast, which carried AI-amplified security at $204.5 billion in 2030 without breaking out the segments underneath it.

Jul 6

Gartner securing AI forecast, 2Q26: securing AI turns Other Security Software into the only accelerating segment, 16.3% to 20.1% by 2030

Gartner’s $248.2B security forecast makes securing AI the only segment accelerating through 2030

Gartner's 2Q26 information security forecast puts 2026 spending at $248.2B and adds securing AI for the first time, making other security software the only segment accelerating through 2030.

Apr 8

Top 10 security categories where VC funding trails Gartner’s 2026 growth forecast, Crunchbase data

Two of Gartner’s 10 fastest-growing security categories have zero venture-backed startups. Firewall equipment, a $26.7 billion market by 2030, and pure-play cloud access security brokers, projected at $7.1 billion, are controlled entirely by incumbent vendors. No startup has raised a dollar in either category since January 2025.

I cross-referenced Gartner’s 1Q26 Information Security forecast against CB Insights, Crunchbase, and PitchBook funding data for every one of the 10 fastest-growing security categories. The question: where is venture capital following Gartner’s growth signal, and where is it missing?

The answer is stark. $93.2 billion in projected 2030 spending across these 10 categories. $11.2 billion in total VC raised by 59 funded startups. That is an 8.3:1 gap between where enterprise demand is heading and where startup capital is flowing. In 5 of 10 categories, the gap exceeds 12:1. As I detailed in last week’s analysis of the 10 fastest-growing categories, growth is concentrating in cloud infrastructure, proactive intelligence, and privacy compliance. The VC data tells you whether anyone is building what CISOs need to buy.

“Cybersecurity leaders are navigating uncharted territory this year as these forces converge, testing the limits of their teams in an environment defined by constant change,” said Alex Michaels, Director at Gartner. The spending data confirms it. The startup funding data shows the supply side has not caught up.

The master table: Gartner forecast vs. startup funding by category

I mapped each Gartner category against every cybersecurity startup that raised equity or debt since January 2025. Each company is assigned to one primary category to avoid double-counting. Gap Ratio is the Gartner 2030 market projection divided by total VC raised. Higher means wider gap.

#	Gartner Security Category	2025-26 GR	5yr CAGR	2030 Proj	Startups	Total VC	Gap Ratio	Verdict
1	Cloud Access Security Brokers (CASB)	27.2%	24.3%	$7.1B	4	$182M	39:1	Critical Gap
2	Firewall Equipment (NGFW/FWaaS)	15.9%	9.1%	$26.7B	0	$0	∞	Incumbent Lock
3	Cloud Security Posture Mgmt (CSPM)	33.4%	27.6%	$16.2B	6	$752M	21.5:1	Underfunded
4	Vulnerability Assessment	15.7%	12.0%	$6.4B	6	$306M	20.9:1	Underfunded
5	Cloud Workload Protection (CWPP)	25.9%	21.0%	$16.1B	8	$1.28B	12.6:1	Underfunded
6	Subject Rights Request Automation	16.2%	12.3%	$2.3B	2	$240M	9.6:1	M&A Absorbed
7	Network Detection & Response (NDR)	15.6%	12.4%	$4.1B	4	$701M	5.9:1	Moderate Gap
8	Zero Trust Network Access (ZTNA)	23.0%	20.9%	$6.4B	10	$1.94B	3.3:1	VC Ahead
9	Threat Intelligence	27.3%	21.1%	$6.9B	12	$3.16B	2.2:1	Oversupplied
10	Consent & Preference Mgmt	22.1%	18.6%	$2.0B	7	$2.61B	0.8:1	Oversupplied

Source: Gartner 1Q26 Information Security Market Current Outlook (G00846158, March 2026). Growth rates in constant currency. Funding data from CB Insights, Crunchbase, PitchBook. Analysis by Software Strategies Blog, April 2026.

The table splits cleanly into three tiers. Five categories are underfunded or locked out (Gap Ratio above 9:1). Two sit in the middle. Three are oversupplied or ahead of the Gartner signal.

I update this comparison every quarter as Gartner releases new forecast data. Get the next one in your inbox.

The 3 widest gaps

Gap #1: CASB — 39:1, and the category is disappearing

Gartner projects cloud access security brokers reaching $7.1 billion by 2030 at a 24.3% CAGR. Total startup funding since January 2025: $182 million across just 4 companies.

Company	Total Funding	Last Round	Lead Investor	HQ	Founded
Reco	$85M	$30M Series B	Zeev Ventures	New York	2020
Seraphic Security	$44M	$29M Series A	GreatPoint Ventures	Palo Alto / Israel	2020
Nudge Security	$35M	$22.5M Series A	Cerberus Ventures	Austin, TX	2021
Spin.AI	$18M+	Undisclosed (K1)	K1 Investment Mgmt	Palo Alto	2017

The gap is structural, not cyclical. Pure-play CASB startups no longer exist as a standalone category. The buying motion has shifted to SASE platforms. Cato Networks raised $409 million in a Series G in June 2025, but that money funds a unified SASE platform spanning CASB, ZTNA, and SD-WAN.

For CISOs, the implication is direct. If your CASB requirement is standalone, your vendor options are Netskope, Skyhigh, Forcepoint, and a handful of sub-$50 million startups. Expect fewer competitive bids and less pricing leverage than in categories where VC is abundant.

Gap #2: CSPM — 21.5:1, the fastest-growing category is still starved

Cloud security posture management is the single fastest-growing category in Gartner’s entire information security forecast. 33.4% growth in 2026. $16.2 billion by 2030 at a 27.6% five-year CAGR. Total startup funding: $752 million across 6 companies.

Company	Total Funding	Last Round	Lead Investor	HQ	Founded
Upwind Security	$430M	$250M Series B	Bessemer Venture Partners	San Francisco	2022
Noma Security	$132M	$100M Series B	Evolution Equity Partners	New York / Tel Aviv	2023
Sentra	$100M+	$50M Series B	Key1 Capital	New York / Tel Aviv	2021
Native Security	$42M	$31M Series A	Ballistic Ventures	Tel Aviv / Seattle	2024
Mondoo	$32.5M	$17.5M Series A Ext	HV Capital	San Francisco	2020
AccuKnox	$15M	$4M Venture	DreamIt Ventures	Menlo Park	2020

Upwind alone accounts for 57% of all CSPM startup capital. It hit unicorn status at a $1.5 billion valuation in January 2026. But one company cannot fill a $16.2 billion market.

Alphabet’s $32 billion acquisition of Wiz in March 2026 removed the largest independent cloud security company from the startup market entirely. In my analysis of $3.6 billion in agentic AI security funding, I tracked how M&A is filling gaps that VC has not. CSPM is a category where that pattern is accelerating.

Gap #3: Vulnerability Assessment — 20.9:1, the most active seed-stage category

Gartner projects vulnerability assessment at $6.4 billion by 2030. Total VC: $306 million across 6 companies.

Company	Total Funding	Last Round	Lead Investor	HQ	Founded
Zafran Security	$130M	$60M Series C	Menlo Ventures	New York	2022
Seemplicity	$82M+	$50M Series B	Sienna Venture Capital	Tel Aviv	2020
Cogent Security	$53M	$42M Series A	Bain Capital Ventures	San Francisco	2024
Nucleus Security	$20M+	$20M Series C	Undisclosed	Tampa, FL	2018
Onit Security	$11M	$11M Seed	Hetz Ventures	Tel Aviv	2025
ZAST.AI	~$10M	$6M Pre-A	Hillhouse Capital	Seattle	2024

This is the category with the most active early-stage investment. Cogent Security and Onit Security both use AI agents for autonomous vulnerability remediation. Zafran tripled ARR since its prior round. The agentic AI thesis is landing hardest in vulnerability management, and the funding trail shows it.

Balbix, which had raised $98.6 million, was acquired in November 2025. For CISOs evaluating this category, the vendor field is young and fragmented. Half of the funded companies were founded in 2024 or later.

Bar chart: total funding raised by startups in the underfunded CSPM, vulnerability assessment and CWPP categories, led by Chainguard at $892M and Upwind Security at $430M, CB Insights, Crunchbase and PitchBook data

Where VC is ahead of Gartner

Three categories show the opposite pattern. In Consent & Preference Management, OneTrust alone has raised $2.1 billion against a $2.0 billion Gartner projection. In Threat Intelligence, $3.16 billion in VC against a $6.9 billion projection, but Dataminr ($1.24B) and ReliaQuest ($1.13B) account for 75% of the total. In ZTNA, Cato Networks’ $1.1 billion alone represents 57% of all category funding.

Three donut charts of single-company concentration risk: Chainguard holds about 70% of CWPP startup funding, Cato Networks 57% of ZTNA and the top two companies 75% of threat intelligence

The concentration risk matters. Strip out the single largest company in each oversupplied category and the gap ratios invert. Consent without OneTrust: $510 million, Gap Ratio 3.9:1. Threat Intelligence without Dataminr and ReliaQuest: $790 million, Gap Ratio 8.7:1. ZTNA without Cato: $835 million, Gap Ratio 7.7:1.

M&A is filling the gaps VC won’t

When startups cannot fill the gap, platform vendors acquire. The $3.6 billion in agentic AI security funding and $96 billion in M&A I tracked in March tells this story at scale. Palo Alto Networks assembled $29 billion in acquisitions. ServiceNow spent $11.6 billion. Alphabet closed $32 billion for Wiz. Veeam acquired Securiti.ai for $1.725 billion, removing the leading subject rights automation vendor from the independent market.

Forrester’s 2026 cybersecurity budget data confirms the same pattern from the buyer side. Security budgets are growing, but the spend is concentrating in fewer, larger platform purchases.

What this means for CISOs

In underfunded categories, build internally or accept platform vendor lock-in. CSPM, vulnerability assessment, and CWPP all have Gap Ratios above 12:1. Fewer funded startups means fewer competitive alternatives. If your preferred vendor gets acquired, as Wiz, Securiti.ai, and Balbix all were, your roadmap depends on the acquirer’s priorities, not yours.

In oversupplied categories, use the competition for better pricing. ZTNA, threat intelligence, and consent management have abundant VC-backed alternatives. Negotiate harder. Run competitive evaluations with three or more vendors. The funding data tells you which categories give you leverage.

Watch for single-company concentration. Chainguard holds 70% of all CWPP startup funding. Cato holds 57% of ZTNA. OneTrust holds 80% of consent management. If any of these companies pivots, gets acquired, or fails, the category funding picture changes overnight.

Bottom line

Gartner projects $93.2 billion in 2030 spending across the 10 fastest-growing security categories. Venture capital has funded $11.2 billion in startups since January 2025. The 8.3:1 blended gap tells you the overall story. The category-level ratios tell you where to act.

Cloud security posture management, vulnerability assessment, and cloud workload protection are growing at 2x to 3x the market average but remain underfunded relative to Gartner’s projections. Two categories, firewall equipment and pure-play CASB, have no startup investment at all. Platform vendors are filling gaps through acquisition at a pace that is reshaping every competitive evaluation.

This is the third quarter I have tracked Gartner’s security forecast against independent funding data. The gap between enterprise demand and startup supply keeps widening. Gartner’s 2Q26 forecast lands in July. I will break down the updated Gap Ratios the week it drops. I wrote a shorter editorial take on what these gaps mean for CISO budgets on my Substack.

Source: Gartner, Information Security Market Current Outlook, Worldwide, 1Q26 (G00846158), March 2026. Growth rates in constant currency. Dollar figures in current U.S. dollars. Funding data from CB Insights, Crunchbase, PitchBook, Statista. Cross-referenced against company press releases. Analysis by Software Strategies Blog.

Apr 1

Gartner’s $246.2B Security Forecast shows 10 categories growing 2x to 3x the market

$30.6 billion in new security spending in a single year. Gartner's 1Q26 Information Security forecast projects $246.2 billion in 2026 spending across 41 categories. Cloud Security Posture Management leads at 33.4% growth, followed by Threat Intelligence at 27.3% and Cloud Access Security Brokers at 27.2%. Two legacy categories are declining. I analyzed the full dataset to rank the 10 fastest-growing categories by growth rate and what they mean for CISO budgets.

Mar 28

$3.6 Billion in Crunchbase funding, $96 Billion in M&A, and 10 Agentic AI security startups Reshaping 2026

Palo Alto Networks spent $29 billion acquiring three companies. ServiceNow spent $11.6 billion on three more. Alphabet paid $32 billion for Wiz. The startups building agentic AI defenses raised $3.6 billion. Total MCP security funding for 17,000+ deployed servers: $40 million. Then RSAC 2026 happened.

Feb 26

Roundup of agentic AI forecasts and market estimates, 2026

Agentic AI spending is projected to reach $201.9 billion in 2026 (Gartner), overtaking chatbot spending by 2027. Four independent firms size the standalone market at $7–8 billion with 40%+ CAGRs. But adoption lags the money: only 23% of organizations have scaled agent deployments (McKinsey), and 40% of projects face cancellation by 2027 (Gartner).

Fortune Business Insights projects $7.29 billion in 2025, reaching $139.19 billion by 2034 at 40.5% CAGR. Precedence Research sizes it at $7.55 billion in 2025, growing to $199.05 billion by 2034 at 43.84% CAGR. MarketsandMarkets puts the figure at $7.06 billion in 2025, reaching $93.20 billion by 2032 at 44.6% CAGR. Deloitte’s TMT Predictions 2025 estimates $8.5 billion in 2026, growing to $35 to $45 billion by 2030.

Every major forecast agrees on direction. None agrees on scale. The standalone agentic AI market lands between $7 billion and $8.5 billion. Gartner’s broader view, counting agentic capabilities embedded across enterprise software, reaches $201.9 billion in 2026. That 25x gap is not a contradiction. It is a measurement problem, and the takeaways below reflect both realities. The following are the key takeaways from agentic AI forecasts published in 2026 so far:

Two later comparisons extend this roundup: AI infrastructure spending forecasts compared (October 2026), which tracks the 2030 build-out numbers, and AI revenue gap forecasts compared, which follows the returns on that spending.

Key takeaways

Worldwide AI spending will reach $2.52 trillion in 2026, growing 44% year-over-year. That number jumped roughly $500 billion from the September forecast, which had pegged the market just above $2 trillion. Infrastructure takes $1.37 trillion, 54% of total spend. AI software follows at $452.5 billion, up 60%. AI services add $588.6 billion. AI-optimized servers alone account for $421.6 billion, growing to 49%. Gartner expects spending to grow by another 30% in 2027 and surpass $3 trillion. I have tracked these forecasts through multiple iterations. The revisions keep going in one direction. Source: Gartner press release, January 15, 2026

Gartner projects $4.71 trillion in global AI spending by 2029. The fastest growth isn’t in infrastructure. Synthetic data generation leads all categories at 178% CAGR, followed by the broader AI Data market at 155%. Agentic AI compounds at 119%, expanding from $15 billion to $753 billion by 2029. AI Infrastructure, the largest category by dollars, grows at just 29%. The money is following the bottlenecks. Source: Gartner 4Q25: $4.71T AI Market Proves Agentic AI and Data Readiness Are the Only Race That Matters, Software Strategies Blog, January 22, 2026 Link: https://softwarestrategiesblog.com/2026/01/22/gartner-4q25-agentic-ai-data-readiness-4-71t-market/

The AI cybersecurity market is predicted to hit $51.3 billion in 2026, nearly doubling from $25.9 billion in 2025. But the category masks a structural imbalance. AI-amplified security, where AI defends the enterprise, captures 94.5% of spending at $48.5 billion. Securing AI, where the enterprise defends its own AI systems, gets $2.8 billion. Enterprises are investing 17x more in using AI as a security tool than in protecting the AI itself. Both sub-segments grow at similar CAGRs (74% vs. 72%), which means the dollar gap widens every year. By 2029, AI-amplified security reaches $160.4 billion, while securing AI hits just $11.6 billion. One is a tool. The other is the thing that needs protecting. Source: Gartner Forecasts Agentic AI Will Overtake Chatbot Spending by 2027, Software Strategies Blog, February 16, 2026 Link: https://softwarestrategiesblog.com/2026/02/16/gartner-forecasts-agentic-ai-overtakes-chatbot-spending-2027/

AI Data sits alone in the upper-right quadrant of Gartner’s spending map, compounding at 155% CAGR with 277% growth in 2026. AI Cybersecurity and AI Models cluster above 67% CAGR. AI Infrastructure anchors the chart as the largest bubble, but grows at just 29%. Global AI spending reaches $1.8 trillion in 2025 and $4.7 trillion by 2029. The acceleration is not in compute. It is in data readiness, security architecture, and agentic capabilities. By 2028, software with agentic capabilities crosses 50% of total application software spend, up from 2% in 2024. Non-agentic software spending starts declining in 2027. Source:Data Readiness and Security Are Driving AI’s $4.7 Trillion Run, Software Strategies Blog, December 22, 2025 Link: https://softwarestrategiesblog.com/2025/12/22/data-readiness-security-driving-ai-4-7-trillion/

Gartner’s AI spending forecast reaches $2.53 trillion in 2026 and $4.71 trillion by 2029. Eight markets. One pattern. AI Infrastructure dominates absolute dollars at $1.37 trillion in 2026 but grows at just 29% CAGR. AI Data, the smallest segment at $3.1 billion, compounds at 155%. AI Cybersecurity nearly doubles to $51.3 billion. AI Software hits $452.5 billion, growing 60% year-over-year as agentic capabilities reshape the category. The growth rates tell you where the bottlenecks are breaking. Source: Data Readiness and Security Are Driving AI’s $4.7 Trillion Run, Software Strategies Blog, December 22, 2025 Link: https://softwarestrategiesblog.com/2025/12/22/data-readiness-security-driving-ai-4-7-trillion/

Nearly nine in ten organizations now use AI in at least one business function, up from 78% a year ago, but nearly two-thirds have not begun scaling it across the enterprise. Only 6% qualify as high performers where AI contributes more than 5% to EBIT. Sixty-two percent of organizations are at least experimenting with AI agents, yet in no individual business function are more than 10% scaling them. High performers are three times more likely than peers to fundamentally redesign workflows and three times more likely to have senior leaders demonstrating ownership of AI initiatives. More than one-third of high performers commit over 20% of their digital budgets to AI, and about three-quarters have reached the scaling phase, versus one-third of other organizations. Source: McKinsey / QuantumBlack, The state of AI in 2025: Agents, innovation, and transformation, November 2025

Valued at $638.23 billion in 2024, the global AI market is projected to reach $3,680.47 billion by 2034, expanding to a CAGR of 19.20%. North America holds 31.80% market share. The software segment dominates at 51.40%, while machine learning leads by technology at 36.70%. Healthcare is expected to record the highest CAGR of 36.50% across end-use segments. Among regions, Asia-Pacific is expected to grow at 19.8% CAGR from 2025 to 2034, with AI projected to add up to $3 trillion to the region’s GDP by 2030, driven by national AI strategies in China, India, and Japan. Source: Precedence Research, AI Market Size, Growth & Trends, September 2025

Nearly $7 trillion. That’s the capital outlay data centers will require by 2030 to keep pace with demand for compute power. Of that, $5.2 trillion goes toward AI-ready facilities and $1.5 trillion toward traditional IT workloads. Global demand for data center capacity could almost triple by 2030, with about 70% of new demand coming from AI workloads. Three investment scenarios range from $3.7 trillion (constrained demand) to $7.9 trillion (accelerated demand, adding 205 incremental GW). The 60% majority of investment—$3.1 trillion—flows to technology developers and designers producing chips and computing hardware. Source: McKinsey, The cost of compute: A $7 trillion race to scale data centers, April 2025

Inference already consumed half of all AI compute in 2025. That number will grow to two-thirds in 2026 and reach 75% of all AI compute needs by 2030. Global data center capacity is projected to nearly double from 103 gigawatts to 200 GW by 2030, yet U.S. data centers already face a capacity shortfall exceeding 11 GW, with the cumulative gap expected to exceed 40 GW by 2028. North American data center capacity alone will increase eightfold, from 5.6 GW in 2024 to 44 GW by 2030. Operators are increasingly deploying edge facilities closer to end users to reduce latency as inference-dominated workloads drive a fundamental redesign of data center architectures. Source: Avid Solutions, 13 Data Center Growth Projections, January 2026

Generative AI could add the equivalent of $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion annually to the global economy, increasing the projected impact of all AI by 15 to 40%. About 75% of the value falls across four areas: customer operations, marketing and sales, software engineering, and R&D. Half of today’s work activities could be automated between 2030 and 2060, with a midpoint in 2045—roughly a decade earlier than previously estimated. When embedding effects in existing software are included, the total economic benefit rises to $6.1 trillion to $7.9 trillion annually. Source: McKinsey, The economic potential of generative AI, June 2023

The global AI market hit $294.16 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $2,480.05 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 26.60%. The Banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) segment holds 18.90% market share, while healthcare is expected to record the highest CAGR of 36.50%. In the U.S. alone, the AI market was estimated at $146.09 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach $851.46 billion by 2034. The number of AI companies funded globally in 2024 totaled 2,049, with U.S.-funded companies accounting for 1,143, signaling strong investor confidence in the sector’s expansion potential. Source: Fortune Business Insights, AI Market Size, Growth & Trends by 2034

Big Tech’s AI capex hit $405 billion in 2025, up from a $250 billion estimate at the start of the year. Sell-side analysts have underestimated AI spending every quarter for two years running. A decade ago, Big Tech’s trailing-twelve-month capex was $24 billion—15x less than today. AI data center costs are projected at $3 trillion to $8 trillion, with gigawatt capacity expected to grow 3.5x by 2030. Source: IO Fund, Big Tech’s $405B Bet, November 2025

The global AI market was valued at $371.71 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $2,407.02 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 30.6%. Hyperscalers accounted for 53% of chip purchases in 2023, spurring 156% market growth from 2023 to 2024. While demand from hyperscalers is expected to moderate, growth of 41% is still forecast from 2025 to 2026. Enterprises are moving from cloud reliance to in-house AI infrastructure investments, particularly for cost-effective inference solutions, as edge AI gains traction through AI-enabled PCs and mobile devices. Source: Markets and Markets, AI Market Report 2025-2032

At $602 billion projected for 2026, hyperscaler capex has entered uncharted territory. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta will each exceed $100 billion individually, pushing capital intensity to 45-57% of revenue. Total hyperscaler capex from 2025-2027 is projected at $1.15 trillion, more than double the $477 billion spent from 2022-2024. Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan suggest the technology sector may need to issue $1.5 trillion in new debt over the next few years to finance AI infrastructure construction. The sheer scale of debt issuance mirrors patterns seen during the fiber-optic buildout of the late 1990s. Source: Multiple sources compiled by Introl, January 2026

The number of software companies using consumption-based pricing more than doubled between 2015 and 2024, as AI introduces new variable costs that make traditional perpetual licenses obsolete. SaaS remains dominant, but the next wave is outcome-aligned pricing that scales with actual AI usage. Software businesses that successfully adopt consumption-based pricing aligned with usage and outcomes may be better positioned to capture AI-driven value and differentiate themselves in a rapidly evolving market where the cost of each AI inference adds a new variable to the P&L. Source: McKinsey, AI adjusts the software bill, January 27, 2026

Data center capacity needs for AI and non-AI workloads could almost triple by 2030, with AI capacity increasing 3.5 times and making up roughly 70% of the total. Under a continued-momentum scenario, total capacity demand rises from 82 GW in 2025 to 219 GW by 2030, with incremental AI capacity ranging from 13 GW in 2025 to 31 GW in 2030, totaling 124 GW of new AI capacity. Non-AI workloads grow from 38 GW to 64 GW over the same period. Average power densities in AI-ready data centers have more than doubled in just two years and are expected to rise nearly four times by 2027. Source: McKinsey, Data center demands (Week in Charts), May 2025

U.S. data-center spending exceeded half a trillion dollars in 2025. The U.S. and China drove a massive expansion in AI-related computing capacity through 2024, with the U.S. pulling further ahead in the first half of 2025. AI-related trade accounted for nearly half of all merchandise trade growth in that period, despite representing only 15% of total trade volume. The infrastructure boom is reshaping international commerce, with surging demand for servers, graphics cards, and related components essential to AI training and inference now a dominant force in global supply chains. Source: Federal Reserve Board, FEDS Notes: The Global Trade Effects of the AI Infrastructure Boom, February 2026

The generative AI market is expanding from $71.36 billion in 2025 to $890.59 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 43.4%. North America accounted for 43.05% of global revenue in 2025. Text remains the dominant data modality due to its foundational role in enterprise workflows, while the services segment is gaining traction for scalability and cost-effectiveness. Foundation model delivery platforms verticalized adoption across industries, and the rapid scaling of AI-native infrastructure are the three key forces driving the market as of 2025. The 43.4% CAGR makes this one of the fastest-expanding technology subsegments in history. Source: MarketsandMarkets, Generative AI Market Report, Global Forecast to 2032

The generative AI market reached $37.89 billion in 2025 and is projected to hit $1.2 trillion by 2035, a 37% compound annual growth rate. Transformer architectures account for more than 42% of technology revenue, driven by text-to-image and text-to-video applications. Software captures over 65% of total revenue. North America holds 41% of the market. Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region at a 27.6% CAGR through 2035. Financial services is expected to lead sector growth at 36.4%, fueled by fraud detection, risk management, and regulatory compliance demands. Source: Precedence Research, Generative AI Market Size, January 2026

GPUs captured 89% of AI processor revenue in 2025, but FPGA and ASIC alternatives are growing at a 17% CAGR through 2031. Hardware accounted for 68% of all AI infrastructure spending last year. North America held 40% of the market, backed by $52.7 billion in CHIPS Act grants and hyperscalers operating roughly 60% of global AI compute capacity. Liquid cooling reached 18% of AI server racks as power densities crossed 100 kilowatts per rack, the threshold where air cooling fails. Asia-Pacific is projected to grow fastest at 16.4% CAGR through 2031, driven by China’s $50 billion semiconductor fund and $15 billion in hyperscaler commitments across India. Source: Mordor Intelligence, AI Infrastructure Market Size, Trends & Growth Drivers 2031

Nearly one in four Americans has already made a purchase through AI. Morgan Stanley Research estimates agentic shoppers will drive $190 billion to $385 billion in U.S. e-commerce spending by 2030, capturing 10% to 20% of market share. Grocery and consumer packaged goods lead adoption, with 49% of AI-assisted buyers transacting in those categories. AI shopping agent users are projected to reach 126 million by 2030, up from near zero today, while traditional e-commerce users decline from 264 million to 149 million over the same period. Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Agentic Commerce Market Impact Outlook, December 2025 Link: https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/agentic-commerce-market-impact-outlook

Louis Columbus researching the intersection of AI, machine learning and cybersecurity in the enterprise

Posts tagged ‘cybersecurity’

Five takeaways from the cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027

What each firm’s cybersecurity spending forecasts say for 2026 and 2027

The published figures side by side

One caution on IDC’s published figures

Why IDC’s cybersecurity spending forecasts run $63 billion above Gartner’s in 2026 and $86 billion above in 2027

Omdia’s two-thirds services share is the largest definitional split

The one real disagreement is how fast growth slows after 2027

Why the 2030 numbers are $140 billion apart

Forrester measures budgets, not markets, and the mood improved

What Gartner’s CISO research adds to the demand picture

The securing-AI gap is wider than the market gap

Nearly half of the gap sits in the United States

How to use four cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027 that do not agree

Frequently asked questions

What do the cybersecurity spending forecasts say the market is worth in 2027?

Why do IDC’s cybersecurity spending forecasts run higher than Gartner’s for 2027?

What does Omdia forecast for cybersecurity spending?

What does Forrester say about 2027 security budgets?

Are the cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2026 and 2027 rising or falling?

How I built this analysis

Where the IDC, Omdia and Forrester figures come from

Related comparisons

Sources

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What Is AI-Amplified Security?

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The master table: Gartner forecast vs. startup funding by category

The 3 widest gaps

Gap #1: CASB — 39:1, and the category is disappearing

Gap #2: CSPM — 21.5:1, the fastest-growing category is still starved

Gap #3: Vulnerability Assessment — 20.9:1, the most active seed-stage category

Where VC is ahead of Gartner

M&A is filling the gaps VC won’t

What this means for CISOs

Bottom line

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