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Nov 9

Why Gartner and IDC are $86B apart on 2027 cybersecurity spending

Chart comparing Gartner's and IDC's cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027: $276.1 billion versus $361.9 billion, an $85.8 billion difference explained by scope, while 2027 growth rates sit within 1.2 points at 11.2 to 12.4 percent
Cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027 compared. Gartner and IDC are $85.8B apart on market size, yet their 2027 growth rates sit within 1.2 points of each other. Click any chart to open it full size. Sources linked below, analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Four research firms have now published cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027. Their numbers do not agree, and the disagreement itself is more instructive than any one total. Gartner’s 3Q26 forecast puts worldwide information security end-user spending at $276.1 billion in 2027. IDC’s latest published figure is $361.9 billion. Omdia has 2026 at $315 billion but keeps its 2027 figure behind a paywall. Forrester surveys the people who hold the budgets instead of sizing the market, and 60% of them expect at least a 5% increase next year.

Put side by side, the spread looks like a dispute about demand. Growth rates say otherwise. Every firm’s 2026 rate lands between 12.7% and 13.6%, while each 2027 rate sits between 11.2% and 12.4%. What separates a $276 billion market from a $362 billion one is what each firm decides to count. This post reconciles the four cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027, shows where the scope differences come from and identifies the one place where the firms genuinely disagree. That place is the pace of deceleration after 2027.

Five takeaways from the cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027

  • The 2027 gap is $86 billion, and it is almost entirely definitional. IDC’s $361.9 billion includes security hardware and spans 38 technology markets across 28 industries. Gartner’s $276.1 billion covers 41 categories of security software, security services and network security equipment but no other hardware. Neither firm is wrong. Each draws the market boundary in a different place.
  • Growth is the point of agreement. Gartner has 2026 at 12.7% in constant currency (13.6% in current dollars) and 2027 at 11.2%. IDC’s V2 release has 2026 at 13.2% and its event page has 2027 at 12.4%. Omdia also has 2026 at 13%. Any of the four cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027 would describe the same healthy, low-teens market.
  • Omdia’s services share is the biggest single difference. Omdia puts services at roughly two-thirds of cybersecurity spending, against a 37.8% services share in Gartner’s forecast. In dollar terms, Omdia’s June 2026 services figure of $204.8 billion is $111 billion above Gartner’s $93.5 billion. That alone is more than the entire gap between the two firms’ totals.
  • The real disagreement is after 2027. Gartner’s constant-currency growth path declines every year, falling from 12.7% in 2026 until it reaches 9.6% in 2030. That is a 10.8% compound rate for 2025 to 2030. IDC describes a “12.5% five-year path to $512.9B by 2030.” By 2030 the two long-range numbers are $140 billion apart.
  • Forrester’s budget signal improved year over year. In its 2027 planning survey, 16% of security decision-makers expect a budget increase above 10%, while 44% expect 5% to 10%. A year earlier the figures were 15% and 40%. Budgets are growing faster in the minds of the people who set them than a year ago.

What each firm’s cybersecurity spending forecasts say for 2026 and 2027

The table below holds the figures each firm has made public, together with the scope that goes with them. Read the scope column first, because the totals mean little without it. Gartner’s number is end-user spending in current dollars from the detailed forecast file. IDC’s figures come from two places. Its V2 Worldwide Security Spending Guide release gives $310.42 billion for 2026. A separate IT Security event page then gives $361.9 billion for 2027 and $512.9 billion for 2030. Omdia’s 2026 figure appears in its October 1, 2026 channel analysis. Forrester’s numbers are survey percentages rather than dollars.

The published figures side by side

Table comparing Gartner, IDC, Omdia and Forrester cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2026 and 2027 with long-range figures, 2026 total bars and scope notes: Gartner $247.5bn and $276.1bn, IDC $310.4bn and $361.9bn, Omdia $315bn for 2026, Forrester 55 percent and 60 percent expecting at least a 5 percent budget increase
What each firm has published for 2026 and 2027, with the scope behind each number. Bars compare the firms’ 2026 totals on their own scopes. Gartner growth rates and CAGR are calculations from the detailed forecast file. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

One caution on IDC’s published figures

IDC’s own public figures do not fully reconcile. A 2027 total of $361.9 billion that is “up 12.4% year on year” implies a 2026 base of about $322 billion. That is about $11.6 billion above the $310.42 billion in the V2 release. A 12.5% five-year path to $512.9 billion implies a 2025 base near $285 billion, while the V2 growth rate implies $274 billion. The likeliest explanation is that the event page draws on a later version of the guide. I show both as published and treat them as two snapshots rather than one series.

Line chart of Gartner's 2024 to 2030 worldwide security spending forecast against IDC's published points for 2026, 2027 and 2030 and Omdia's 2026 figure, showing gaps of $86 billion in 2027 and $140 billion in 2030
Gartner’s full 2024-2030 series against the points IDC and Omdia have published. The IDC-Gartner gap grows from $86B in 2027 to $140B in 2030. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Why IDC’s cybersecurity spending forecasts run $63 billion above Gartner’s in 2026 and $86 billion above in 2027

Start with what each firm counts. Gartner’s forecast is end-user spending across three markets. Security software is $126.9 billion in 2026, security services $93.5 billion and network security equipment $27.0 billion. That equipment is also the only hardware in a forecast Gartner publishes as 41 categories across 47 country and sub-regional rows. The 2026 total still includes $9.0 billion of consumer security software. Once the consumer line is stripped out, the business-only figure is $238.4 billion for 2026 and $266.8 billion for 2027.

IDC built its Worldwide Security Spending Guide on a wider frame. It covers 38 technology markets, including security hardware beyond network appliances, and then slices them by 28 industries and 48 countries. IDC said in March that software would be more than half of its $308 billion 2026 total and grow fastest, at 14%. The October V2 release lifted 2026 to $310.42 billion and the growth rate to 13.2%. That combination means IDC revised 2025 down and 2026 up at the same time.

Both firms tell roughly the same software-led growth story, although about differently sized markets. A $63 billion gap in 2026 that holds its proportion in 2027 is what a fixed scope difference looks like. Demand disagreements leave a different trail. If IDC saw stronger demand than Gartner, the gap would widen quickly. It does widen, but slowly, and almost entirely because of the long-range growth assumption discussed below.

Stacked bar chart showing how Gartner, IDC, Omdia and Forrester each divide cybersecurity spending in 2026: Gartner 51 percent software, 38 percent services, 11 percent network equipment. IDC more than half software. Omdia one-third technology and two-thirds services. Forrester 40 percent software and about 29 percent personnel
Each firm’s 2026 split of cybersecurity spending, in its own categories. Omdia’s two-thirds services share and Forrester’s personnel line have no equivalent in Gartner’s forecast. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Omdia’s two-thirds services share is the largest definitional split

Omdia’s $315 billion looks close to IDC’s $310 billion, but it gets there by a different route. Omdia says technology, meaning licenses, subscriptions and appliances, is roughly one-third of cybersecurity spending. Services spanning advisory, design and managed security are the other two-thirds. Its June 2026 figures were $106.4 billion for technology and $204.8 billion for services, out of $311 billion.

Gartner’s forecast inverts that ratio. Software plus network security equipment is $153.9 billion in 2026, $47.5 billion more than Omdia’s technology figure. Gartner’s security services total of $93.5 billion sits $111.3 billion below Omdia’s services figure, and that one difference is larger than the $63.5 billion gap between Omdia’s June total and Gartner’s.

Managed security shows how far apart the definitions sit. Gartner’s Managed Security Services subsegment is $32.3 billion in 2026, with managed detection and response at $11.5 billion of that and security operations at $15.6 billion. Omdia’s managed security services figure for 2026 is $106 billion, growing 14%, as cited by WithSecure’s MSP Cybersecurity Buyer’s Guide from Omdia’s MSSP Trends and Predictions. That one number is larger than Gartner’s entire security services market. Omdia is counting partner-delivered services that Gartner either books as product revenue or leaves outside the forecast.

For anyone selling security services, the implication is simple. Omdia’s figures describe the partner economy, and Gartner’s describe the services revenue that vendors recognize on their own books. Both are real answers, but to different questions.

Paired horizontal bar chart comparing Gartner and Omdia 2026 cybersecurity spending by type: technology $153.9 billion versus $106.4 billion, services $93.5 billion versus $204.8 billion, managed security $32.3 billion versus $106 billion
Gartner and Omdia 2026 figures by type. Omdia counts $111B more in services than Gartner, and its managed security figure alone is larger than Gartner’s total services market. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

The one real disagreement is how fast growth slows after 2027

Once scope is set aside, the four cybersecurity spending forecasts agree on 2027 and differ on what follows. Gartner’s constant-currency growth falls every year in the 3Q26 file, from 12.7% in 2026 to 11.2% in 2027, 10.4% in 2028, 10.0% in 2029 and 9.6% in 2030, so the compound rate for 2025 to 2030 works out to 10.8%. The market adds $28.7 billion in 2027 and then $96.7 billion over the following three years, which is strong growth on a decelerating path.

IDC’s published path barely decelerates. After 13.2% in 2026 and 12.4% in 2027, the firm describes a 12.5% five-year compound rate to $512.9 billion by 2030. Getting from $361.9 billion in 2027 to $512.9 billion in 2030 requires 12.3% a year for three more years, which is flat growth rather than a slide toward single digits. By 2030 the gap between IDC’s compound rate and Gartner’s year-on-year rate reaches 2.9 percentage points.

Why the 2030 numbers are $140 billion apart

That difference compounds, so the dollar gap widens every year. In 2027 the two totals are $86 billion apart, and by 2030 the distance reaches $140 billion, or about 38% of Gartner’s own 2030 total. Had IDC’s figure grown at Gartner’s rates from 2027 instead, it would reach about $489 billion in 2030. The gap would then be $116 billion, leaving $24 billion that comes from the growth assumption alone.

That leaves the 2028 to 2030 call as a call about AI. Either AI-driven security demand sustains low-teens growth, or platform consolidation and budget pressure pull it toward 10%. Consolidation is the Gartner case, while sustained AI demand is IDC’s. Gartner’s own forecast assumptions also back that reading. By 2029 it expects 52% of organizations to use fewer than 10 cybersecurity tools, up from 21% in 2025, according to Forecast Analysis: Information Security, Worldwide, 2026 (G00838442).

Line chart of year-on-year growth in worldwide security spending showing Gartner's constant-currency path falling from 12.7 percent in 2026 to 9.6 percent in 2030 against IDC's 13.2 percent, 12.4 percent and 12.5 percent five-year compound rate
Growth rates in the cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027 and beyond. Gartner’s path declines every year through 2030, while IDC’s published points and its 12.5% five-year rate stay above 12%. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Forrester measures budgets, not markets, and the mood improved

Forrester built its Budget Planning Guide 2027: Security And Risk Leaders Must Confront The AI Cost Explosion from a survey of more than 2,600 business and technology decision-makers. The guide produces no market size, and that is useful here. Budgets include headcount, training, insurance and now what Forrester calls “token economics,” the inference costs of running AI inside security operations, none of which any vendor forecast counts.

The headline is a modest, consistent improvement. For 2027, 60% of security decision-makers expect their budgets to rise by at least 5%, with 16% expecting more than 10% and 44% expecting 5% to 10%. A year earlier the same questions for 2026 returned 55%, split 15% and 40%. Across all technology decision-makers, 82% expect budgets to rise in 2027, although the regional detail for 2026 showed how uneven that optimism was. Only 9% of North American security leaders expected more than 10% growth, against 14% in Europe and 22% in Asia Pacific.

Forrester’s budget composition data explains why its figures do not map onto Gartner’s or IDC’s cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027. Citing Information Services Group data for 2025, Forrester says software is about 40% of security budgets. That outpaces hardware and outsourcing combined and, in Forrester’s wording, exceeds personnel-related costs by 11%. Read as percentage points, that puts personnel near 29% of the budget, the second-largest line a CISO carries and one that no market forecast includes. A security budget growing 5% to 10% is consistent with a vendor market growing 11% to 13%, provided staff costs grow more slowly than software and services. Two years of consolidation and automation point that way.

Stacked bar chart of Forrester survey results showing 55 percent of security decision-makers expected at least a 5 percent budget increase for 2026 and 60 percent expect it for 2027, with a side panel showing 9 percent of North American, 14 percent of European and 22 percent of Asia Pacific leaders expecting more than 10 percent growth for 2026
Forrester’s security budget surveys for 2026 and 2027. The share expecting at least a 5% increase rose from 55% to 60%. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

What Gartner’s CISO research adds to the demand picture

Gartner’s own planning research for the same cycle points the same way, and it adds two cost drivers that none of the market forecasts isolates. CISO Agenda Priority: Align Cybersecurity Investment With Board Risk Appetite (G00862663) states that the cybersecurity challenge “is no longer primarily a budget problem” and that boards are deliberately increasing risk appetite to accelerate AI adoption. The money is there, so the argument is about where it goes.

On staffing, the 2027 Planning Guide for Cybersecurity (G00856222) says the SOC workforce will transform rather than shrink as AI agents arrive. Gartner projects that by 2028 security operations teams will employ 50% more engineers than traditional analysts, which keeps Forrester’s personnel line intact even as vendor spending grows. The Cybersecurity Executive Outlook, 4Q26 (G00861818) reports that 51% of CISOs have not begun any post-quantum cryptography activity and predicts that organizations that do not begin piloting PQC by 2027 will pay 200% higher costs for full migration. Those are reasons for 2027 budgets to keep rising regardless of how a market is scoped.

The securing-AI gap is wider than the market gap

The sharpest divergence between the cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027 is in the newest category. Gartner’s securing-AI forecast appears in Forecasting the $16.4 Billion Opportunity in Securing AI (G00853861) and carries into the 2Q26 and 3Q26 information security forecasts. It has spending on securing AI at about $3 billion in 2026 before rising to $16 billion in 2030. That implies growth of roughly 52% a year, although from a small base. The category sits inside Gartner’s security software total rather than beside it.

IDC’s IT Security event page states that spending on securing AI will reach $58.3 billion in 2027, “compounding at 37.8% a year.” It calls this “the fastest-moving segment in security.” The source is IDC’s Worldwide Artificial Intelligence Security Spending Forecast, 2025-2029. That 2027 figure is 3.6 times Gartner’s 2030 figure, three years earlier.

A gap of that size comes from definitions. IDC’s event page does not say what the $58.3 billion counts, and its scale points to a far broader set of spending than Gartner’s, plausibly including AI-enabled security tooling and services. Gartner’s securing-AI line covers only the spend on protecting AI models, agents and data. A third number, Gartner’s AI-amplified security forecast, reaches $204 billion by 2030 and is a different construct again. The firm’s February analysis says so itself, stating that AI-amplified security “is not additive spending and will not change security spending” (G00838442). I covered it in an earlier post linked below. Anyone quoting an “AI security market size” needs to say which of these three definitions they mean.

Bar chart comparing Gartner's securing AI forecast of $3 billion in 2026 and $16 billion in 2030 with IDC's $58.3 billion securing AI figure for 2027
Gartner’s securing-AI forecast against IDC’s. IDC’s 2027 figure is 3.6 times Gartner’s 2030 figure, a difference of definition rather than demand. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Nearly half of the gap sits in the United States

Regional detail shows where IDC’s extra scope lands. IDC’s March release put the United States at $150 billion for 2026. Gartner’s 3Q26 file has the United States at $119.5 billion, so the $30.5 billion difference is nearly half of the $63 billion gap between the two totals. Gartner then has the US rising to $133.6 billion in 2027 and $181.1 billion in 2030.

Europe is closer than the worldwide totals imply. IDC has Western Europe at $69 billion, while Gartner’s Europe region, which includes Central and Eastern European countries, sums to $64.0 billion. Even a broader Gartner region lands $5 billion below a narrower IDC one. In Asia/Pacific excluding Japan and China, IDC’s $26 billion sits $8.3 billion above the $17.7 billion in Gartner’s Mature and Emerging Asia/Pacific regions combined. As a ratio, that is the widest regional gap of the three. IDC runs at 1.47 times Gartner’s figure there, against 1.26 in the United States and 1.08 in Europe.

The US-heavy gap fits the scope story, because the United States has the deepest market for security hardware, managed services and industry-specific security spending. Those are also the three areas where IDC’s definitions extend furthest beyond Gartner’s.

Dumbbell chart comparing Gartner and IDC 2026 security spending by region: United States $119.5 billion versus $150 billion, Europe $64 billion versus $69 billion for Western Europe, Asia/Pacific excluding Japan and China $17.7 billion versus $26 billion
Gartner and IDC 2026 regional figures. The United States accounts for $30.5B of the $63B gap between the two firms’ worldwide totals. Analysis by Louis Columbus, softwarestrategiesblog.com.

How to use four cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027 that do not agree

  • Pick the forecast that matches your question, then stay with it. Vendor revenue planning and competitive share analysis belong on Gartner’s end-user spending basis, because that is how most public security vendors are benchmarked. Channel and services strategy belongs on Omdia’s partner-centric total, while hardware-inclusive or industry-vertical sizing belongs on IDC. Switching bases mid-analysis is how a 12% growth market gets misreported as a 30% one.
  • Quote growth rates before you quote totals. The four cybersecurity spending forecasts agree that 2026 grows 12.7% to 13.6% and 2027 grows 11.2% to 12.4%. Those are the defensible numbers, while totals carry scope assumptions that most audiences will not check.
  • Treat 2028 to 2030 as the open question. Gartner’s path heads for 9.6% growth by 2030 while IDC’s stays near 12.5%. Plans built on the IDC trajectory have about $140 billion more market to divide by 2030 than plans built on Gartner. Watch Gartner’s 4Q26 update and IDC’s next guide version for which way the 2028 numbers move.
  • Use Forrester as the demand-side check. The share of security leaders expecting at least a 5% budget increase rose from 55% to 60%. If it keeps rising, the vendor forecasts’ low-teens growth has budget support. A decline would instead make Gartner’s deceleration the base case.
  • Never cite an AI security market size without its definition. $3 billion, $16 billion, $58.3 billion and $204 billion are all current analyst figures for some version of “AI security.” They describe four different things.

Frequently asked questions

What do the cybersecurity spending forecasts say the market is worth in 2027?

Among the published cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027, Gartner’s is the lowest at $276.1 billion in worldwide information security end-user spending. That is up 11.6% in current dollars and 11.2% in constant currency. IDC’s published figure is $361.9 billion, up 12.4%. The $86 billion difference reflects IDC’s broader scope, which includes security hardware across 38 technology markets, and the two firms’ 2027 growth rates sit within 1.2 points of each other.

Why do IDC’s cybersecurity spending forecasts run higher than Gartner’s for 2027?

IDC’s Worldwide Security Spending Guide counts hardware, software and services across 38 markets, 28 industries and 48 countries. Gartner counts security software, security services and network security equipment in 41 categories. Nearly half of the 2026 gap, $30.5 billion of $63 billion, is in the United States, because hardware, managed services and industry-specific spending are largest there.

What does Omdia forecast for cybersecurity spending?

Omdia’s October 2026 figure is $315 billion for 2026, up 13%, with technology about one-third and services about two-thirds. Its earlier June 2026 breakdown was $106.4 billion for technology and $204.8 billion for services on a $311 billion total. Omdia’s 2027 and five-year figures remain available only to subscribers, unlike its 2026 headline.

What does Forrester say about 2027 security budgets?

In Forrester’s Budget Planning Guide 2027 survey, 60% of security decision-makers expect at least a 5% budget increase for 2027. Of those, 16% expect more than 10% and 44% expect 5% to 10%. The previous year’s survey for 2026 returned 55%, 15% and 40%.

Are the cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2026 and 2027 rising or falling?

For 2026, every firm’s number is higher than when the year began. Gartner’s went from $244.2 billion in 4Q25 to $248.2 billion in 2Q26, then eased to $247.5 billion in 3Q26. IDC’s rose from $308 billion to $310.42 billion, while Omdia’s rose from $311 billion to $315 billion. For the longer range, Gartner forecasts growth slowing to 9.6% by 2030, while IDC’s published five-year rate holds at 12.5%.

How I built this analysis

I computed the Gartner figures from the detailed data file behind Forecast: Information Security, Worldwide, 2024-2030, 3Q26 (G00862059). That file contains 13,489 rows of end-user spending by year, region, country, market, subsegment and category, in both current and constant currency. Its accompanying report confirms the totals and the 2029 and 2030 growth rates, and Forecast Analysis: Information Security, Worldwide, 2026 (G00838442) supplies the forecast assumptions quoted above. CISO and planning-guide statements come from CISO Agenda Priority: Align Cybersecurity Investment With Board Risk Appetite (G00862663), 2027 Planning Guide for Cybersecurity (G00856222) and The Cybersecurity Executive Outlook, 4Q26 (G00861818). Totals, growth rates, segment shares, regional sums and the 2025-2030 CAGR are my calculations from that file. Securing-AI figures come from Forecasting the $16.4 Billion Opportunity in Securing AI (G00853861), as carried into the 2Q26 and 3Q26 forecasts.

Where the IDC, Omdia and Forrester figures come from

IDC figures are as published in its March 3, 2026 press release, its October 28, 2026 blog on the V2 release of the 2026 Worldwide Security Spending Guide, and its IT Security event page. That page cites the spending guide and the Worldwide Artificial Intelligence Security Spending Forecast, 2025-2029. The implied 2026 base of about $322 billion in the event-page series is my calculation rather than an IDC figure.

Omdia figures come from its October 1, 2026 channel analysis as well as the June 2026 figures published by Omdia’s Jay McBain. The managed security figure is as cited by WithSecure from Omdia’s MSSP Trends and Predictions. Forrester figures come from its Budget Planning Guide 2027 press release and coverage, together with its July 2025 Security Planning 2026 blog and its Predictions 2027 release. The Forrester personnel share of about 29% reads Forrester’s statement that software exceeds personnel-related costs by 11% as a percentage-point gap below the 40% software share. Read as a relative 11%, personnel would be about 36%, and either reading leaves personnel as the second-largest budget line.

I built all charts comparing the cybersecurity spending forecasts for 2027 from these figures and labeled each with its sources. Where a figure is an estimate or a derived value, the chart and text say so.

Related comparisons

Sources

This post is my personal analysis and does not represent my employer.

Nov 5

Gartner’s secure AI Hype Cycle predicts twice the incidents without preproduction offensive GenAI testing

Secure AI Hype Cycle overview. Gartner forecasts twice as many incidents by 2028 without preproduction testing as among proactive users. Of 24 technologies, one is under two years from mainstream adoption, 17 are two to five years away and six are five to ten years away.
Gartner, Hype Cycle for Secure AI, 2026 (G00846820), October 12, 2026. Incident comparison is a forecast. Technology counts and shares are my calculations from the complete Priority Matrix. Analysis and graphic by Software Strategies Blog. Click to open full size.

Gartner’s secure AI Hype Cycle predicts that enterprises skipping preproduction offensive testing of generative AI deployments will face twice as many cybersecurity incidents by 2028 as proactive users. That is a forecast, not a measured outcome.

Funding is already a constraint. Among organizations piloting or implementing offensive AI security technologies, 50% have either not secured funding or diverted money from existing cybersecurity initiatives. This finding describes surveyed adopters, not half of all enterprises.

Meanwhile, my count of the complete Priority Matrix puts 23 of 24 technologies at least two years from mainstream adoption. Security teams therefore need to control deployed agents before most specialist markets mature. The immediate questions are what each agent can do, which controls enforce its limits and what a new product would add.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Secure AI, 2026 (G00846820), published October 12, 2026, separates controls for employee AI use, enterprise-built applications and agents acting across systems. Those distinctions make it useful for testing a security architecture, not simply compiling a vendor shortlist.

Gartner’s original Hype Cycle for Secure AI, 2026, with all technology labels, adoption markers and phase labels.
Gartner, Hype Cycle for Secure AI, 2026 (G00846820), October 12, 2026, Figure 1, page 6. © 2026 Gartner, Inc. Click to open the full-size graphic.

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Nov 2

Gartner’s $4.05T AI forecast and Forrester’s Predictions 2027 put the AI spending slowdown in 2028

Bar chart of Gartner's worldwide AI spending forecast rising from $1.80 trillion in 2025 to $7.01 trillion in 2030, with 2027 adding $1,304 billion, the most of any year, and growth slowing to 28% in 2028 and 15% in 2030
Gartner’s worldwide AI spending forecast, 2025 to 2030. The year 2027 adds $1.30 trillion, more than any other year, before growth falls to 28% in 2028. Click any graphic to open it full size. Source: Gartner (G00862061, Oct. 7, 2026), analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Gartner and Forrester both forecast AI spending rising in 2027. Gartner’s October 7 AI spending forecast puts worldwide AI spending at $4.05 trillion next year, up 47% from $2.75 trillion in 2026, while Forrester’s Predictions 2027, published October 21, says one dollar in five of business technology spending will go to AI.

Each firm places the slowdown somewhere specific. In Gartner’s model, 2027 adds $1.30 trillion in new AI spending, the most of any year through 2030, and growth then drops to 28% in 2028 and 15% by 2030. Forrester’s pressure lands on budgets instead. Only 53% of tech leaders expect their budgets to beat inflation, so leaders plan their deepest cuts in services.

I built this comparison from Gartner’s 3Q26 AI spending forecast (G00862061) and the workbook Gartner publishes with it, Gartner’s October 21 IT spending forecast and Forrester’s public Predictions 2027 materials. The subtractions, shares and dollars added are my calculations.

Four numbers that frame Gartner and Forrester AI spending in 2027

  • Gartner added $413 billion to its 2027 AI forecast in one quarter. AI infrastructure rose $420 billion from the July forecast, more than the total increase, because Gartner trimmed AI software by $8 billion.
  • 2027 is the peak year for new AI dollars in Gartner’s model. Spending adds $1.30 trillion in 2027, then $1.14 trillion in 2028, $920 billion in 2029 and $897 billion in 2030.
  • The two headline numbers measure different things. Gartner sizes the whole AI value chain, chips and consumer devices included. In contrast, Forrester sizes AI’s share of business technology spending.
  • Both firms see services absorbing the squeeze. Gartner forecasts IT services growing 4.9% in 2027 while data center systems grow 55.5%. Meanwhile, Forrester says leaders already plan their deepest cuts in services.

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Oct 29

AI revenue gap forecasts compared across Gartner, Goldman, Bain and JPMorgan

AI revenue gap comparison with Gartner’s cumulative shortfall above $6 trillion through 2032, Goldman’s $417 billion annual revenue requirement, Bain’s $6 trillion annual market in 2031 and JPMorgan’s older $650 billion annual estimate. Different scopes, not a ranking.
Four financial tests with different periods and revenue recipients. Gartner, Prepare for AI Market Consolidation: Capital Write-Downs Could Exceed $4 Trillion by 2032 (G00861169), September 14, 2026, alongside Goldman’s September 24 report, Bain’s Technology Report 2026 and J.P. Morgan’s January 2026 discussion. Shortfalls calculated from source inputs. Analysis and graphic by Software Strategies Blog. Click to open full size.

The AI revenue gap exceeds $6 trillion through 2032 in Gartner’s September consolidation model. Infrastructure owners need more than $14 trillion in cumulative revenue to cover capital, financing and a 12% return. Gartner forecasts no more than $8 trillion attributable to those assets. The difference is my calculation.

That shortfall is not a write-down forecast. Gartner separately estimates more than $4 trillion in asset value exposed to write-downs under that return assumption.

Meanwhile, Goldman’s $417 billion annual requirement and Bain’s $6 trillion annual 2031 market use different financial tests. My infrastructure comparison followed spending into the buildout. This analysis follows the returns.

  • Who earns the revenue matters. Application sales support infrastructure returns only insofar as they contribute to the owner’s economics.
  • The accounting clock changes the hurdle. Equipment lives, replacement cycles and financing affect how much revenue is needed, and when.
  • Higher demand can widen the funding gap. More sales may require more capacity, so spending growth alone does not establish returns.

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Oct 26

20 Cybersecurity Startups to Watch in 2027

Bar chart ranking the latest verified funding round of each of the 20 cybersecurity startups to watch in 2027, from Island and Cyera at $400 million to Opal Security at $23 million, colored by the six sections of the article
Eighteen of the 20 closed their latest round in 2026. Bars show announced rounds, not total funding or valuation. Click the chart to open it full size.

Cyera paid $1 billion for Oasis Security and closed the deal on Sept. 3, 2026, 37 days after Globes reported the agreement on July 28. In late June, Oasis had made CRN’s list of the 10 hottest cybersecurity startups of 2026 so far. Startup lists go stale fast. Notable Capital’s Rising in Cyber 2026 names 30 companies picked by 150 CISOs and security executives, with funding data as of Q1 2026. A CISO setting a 2027 budget needs something narrower from both lists. Which young vendors produced evidence this year that they will still be independent, shipping and staffed when the contract renews?

Dot chart of each company's latest 2026 funding round by announcement date, showing 14 of the 20 rounds landing after March 31 and 12 after CRN's June 26 list, with markers for Notable Capital's Q1 data, the CRN list and Cyera completing its Oasis acquisition on Sept. 3
Each dot is a company’s latest verified round, placed on its announcement date. Keycard and 7AI raised in late 2025 and are not shown.

That question picked these 20. Every company here produced at least one verified 2026 event beyond a valuation, whether a priced round, a named production customer, a shipped product or a public technical result. Valuation earned no one a spot. Eleven of the 20 appear on neither the CRN nor the Notable list.

Eighteen of the 20 closed their latest round in 2026. That money turns into hires, product launches and sales coverage next year, when buyers will feel it. Several companies here have already tied specific 2027 deliverables to the cash.

The research cutoff is Oct. 17, 2026. To qualify, a company had to be privately held and independent on that date. Late-stage companies qualify under the same rule as seed-stage ones, so Cyera and Island stay in. A completed acquisition disqualifies a company. So does an announced sale, which is why Oasis is out.

Securing AI agents company profiles for Onyx Security, HiddenLayer, Reco and Harmonic Security, showing each company's latest verified round, total funding where disclosed, buyer, 2027 watch item and what to validate
Securing AI agents at a glance. Bars share one scale across all six sections.

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Oct 22

AI infrastructure spending forecasts compared: every major firm raised its 2030 number in 2026

AI infrastructure spending forecasts compared, 2026 revisions: Dell'Oro raised 2030 data center capex from $1.7T to more than $3T, Gartner raised 2030 data center systems 58% to $2.16T, hyperscaler capex consensus rose 52% to $800B, IDC raised 2029 AI infrastructure 42% to $1.08T; Citi's $3.8T 2030 AI capex is 3.1x IDC's $1.21T
Four firms raised the same AI infrastructure forecast between editions, with 2030 figures from Dell’Oro, Gartner and IDC. Click any chart to open it full size. Sources linked below, analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Every major AI infrastructure spending forecast went up in 2026, and the biggest increases landed on 2029 and 2030. Dell’Oro Group nearly doubled its 2030 data center capex outlook in six months. Gartner raised its 2030 data center systems forecast 58% in a single quarter. IDC raised its 2029 AI infrastructure forecast 42% in nine months.

The firms still disagree on how big the build-out gets. For 2030, the published annual figures run from IDC’s $1.21 trillion to Citi’s $3.8 trillion, a 3.1x gap. Most of that gap comes from what each firm counts, not from different views of demand.

This post puts the public numbers from 12 firms side by side. They are Gartner, IDC, Dell’Oro, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Morgan Stanley, McKinsey, Bain, Forrester, JLL, the IEA and BloombergNEF. It shows what each one measures, how far each has moved, what the five largest buyers are actually spending, what the power grid can deliver and what the build-out has to earn back. Where a firm published only a range or a scenario, I say so.
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Oct 19

Gartner’s $9.76T IT spending forecast: servers will outspend all IT services by 2030

Gartner IT spending forecast 2024 to 2030 rising from $5.04 trillion to $9.76 trillion, stacked by data center systems, software, IaaS, IT services, communications services and devices, with six KPI tiles
Gartner’s 3Q26 worldwide IT spending forecast by segment, 2024-2030, with six tiles on the numbers that matter most. Click any chart to open it full size. Source: Gartner (G00862058, Sept. 25, 2026), analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Gartner’s latest IT spending forecast puts worldwide IT spending at $6.39 trillion in 2026 and $9.76 trillion by 2030. Spending grows 13.2% in 2026 in constant currency, or 14.5% in current dollars, and compounds at 11.2% a year from 2025 to 2030.

One subsegment drives that growth more than any other. Server spending grows from $386.5 billion in 2025 to $1.97 trillion in 2030. That $1.58 trillion gain is 38% of the $4.18 trillion the IT market adds over the period. By 2030, the world spends more on servers than on all IT services combined.

Gartner calls building AI compute capacity “the largest infrastructure build-out in history.” This edition makes the build-out bigger. Gartner raised its 2030 total by $816.8 billion from last quarter, and data center systems account for $794.9 billion of that increase.

I built this analysis from Gartner Market Databook, 3Q26 (G00862058), published September 25, 2026. Segment totals, growth rates and revisions come from the report. Subsegment and regional figures come from the 7,896-row dataset Gartner publishes with it, which covers 19 subsegments, nine regions and 47 countries. The shares, dollars added and comparisons are my calculations.
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Oct 15

Gartner’s $953B IoT forecast puts 81% of spending in endpoints and the fastest growth in software

Gartner IoT market opportunity forecast 2024 to 2030 rising from $620.9 billion to $953.3 billion, stacked by endpoint electronics, communication services, services, infrastructure software, application software and security, with six KPI tiles for 2026 and 2030 totals, new spending, application software growth, 5G growth and the 2028 revision
IoT market opportunity reaches $953.3B by 2030, with endpoint electronics carrying 81% of it. Click any chart to open it full size. Source: Gartner (G00858825, Sept. 25, 2026), analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

The new Gartner IoT forecast puts four out of every five dollars in devices, and the fastest growth in the software that runs them.

Published September 25, the forecast sizes the worldwide IoT market opportunity at $736.6 billion in 2026, up 9.6%, and $953.3 billion by 2030. That is a 7.2% compound annual growth rate from 2025 through 2030, landing just under $1 trillion.

Endpoint electronics account for $769.2 billion of the 2030 total, or 80.7%. Application software grows at 20.4% a year and infrastructure software at 14.8%. Together, the two software segments compound at 16.3%, 2.3 times the market.

The trillion-dollar mark also moved. Gartner’s previous edition, published in June 2024, put the 2028 market at $990.5 billion. The new edition puts 2028 at $850.3 billion, a $140.2 billion reduction, and does not cross $1 trillion before 2030.

I built this analysis from Gartner’s forecast report (G00858825) and the full detailed dataset behind it: 73,493 rows covering 6 technology segments, 28 subsegments, 12 sectors, 47 use cases, 9 regions and 7 years.

Each bar in the hero chart stacks Gartner’s six technology segments in current U.S. dollars. Navy is endpoint electronics, mid-blue is communication services, sky blue is services, teal is infrastructure software, purple is application software and red is security. Italic figures above each bar give year-over-year growth.

Six tiles underneath carry the 2026 and 2030 totals, the $281.0 billion in new spending between 2025 and 2030, the application software growth rate, the 5G growth rate and the 2028 revision against the 2024 edition.
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Oct 12

Gartner says frontier AI makes patch speed a vanity metric. Tolerable exposure time replaces it.

Gartner frontier AI vulnerability management hero chart showing 2026 and 2030 spending on managed security operations, vulnerability assessment, threat intelligence and network detection and response, with six tiles summarizing Gartner's findings on exploit timing, patch metrics, testing bottlenecks, actions, regulator deadlines and the 2026 trends
Gartner says frontier AI turns patch speed into a vanity metric. Spending bars show the exposure-focused categories in Gartner’s 3Q26 security forecast. Click any chart to open it full size. Sources: Gartner (G00859901, Aug. 6, 2026; G00862059, Sept. 24, 2026), analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Gartner’s new research on frontier AI vulnerability management says the patch-speed metric most security teams report to their boards no longer measures anything useful.

Gartner analysts Rob McMillan and Alex Michaels put it bluntly in a research note published August 6: “Measuring ‘how fast we patch’ is a vanity metric; the only metric that matters now is ‘tolerable exposure time.'”

The note covers one of Gartner’s nine top cybersecurity trends for 2026: frontier AI models transforming vulnerability management. Its central argument runs against most vendor messaging. The real shock from frontier AI is not faster attackers. It is the volume of vulnerabilities that vendors and open-source projects will now find in their own code, and the flood of urgent updates that follows.

Gartner calls it a supply side shock, one that “permanently breaks traditional volume-based patching processes.”

I built this analysis from Gartner’s research note (G00859901) and paired it with category data from Gartner’s 3Q26 information security forecast (G00862059), which sizes the markets security teams will buy from as they shift to exposure management.

The bars in the hero chart show 2026 and 2030 end-user spending for four exposure-focused categories. Six tiles underneath summarize the note’s core findings.
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Oct 8

Gartner’s $812.6B app software forecast sends 38% of new spending to CRM as agentic AI targets $116B of legacy apps

Gartner enterprise application software forecast 2024 to 2030 rising from $384.8 billion to $812.6 billion, stacked by CRM, ERP, other application software, email and authoring, analytic platforms, supply chain management, content services and project and portfolio management, with six KPI tiles
Gartner’s 3Q26 enterprise application software forecast by market, 2024-2030, with six tiles on the numbers that matter most. Click any chart to open it full size. Source: Gartner (G00862072, Sept. 22, 2026), analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Enterprise application software spending reaches $496.3 billion in 2026 and $812.6 billion by 2030, according to the latest Gartner application software forecast. That is a 12.8% compound annual growth rate in constant currency, revised up from 12.7% last quarter.

The headline growth rate hides a sharper story. CRM alone captures $119.2 billion, or 38%, of the $316.2 billion the market adds between 2026 and 2030. In the same report, Gartner says cross-functional agentic AI will cannibalize $116 billion from traditional application software spending by 2030.

Those two numbers are close in size, and they point to the same conclusion. Most of the new money in application software goes to the markets where agentic AI is proving value first. Legacy suites that do not embed agents compete for a shrinking slice.

I built this analysis from Gartner’s Forecast: Enterprise Application Software, Worldwide, 2024-2030, 3Q26 (G00862072), published September 22, 2026. All market, subsegment and regional figures come from the 7,567-row dataset Gartner publishes with the report. The shares, dollars added and comparisons are my calculations.
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