Roundup of Cloud Computing Forecasts and Market Estimates, 2012

The latest round of cloud computing forecasts released by Cisco, Deloitte, IDC, Forrester, Gartner, The 451 Group and others show how rapidly cloud computing’s adoption in enterprises is happening.  The better forecasts quantify just how and where adoption is and isn’t occurring and why.

Overall, this year’s forecasts have taken into account enterprise constraints more realistically  than prior years, yielding a more reasonable set of market estimates.  There still is much hype surrounding cloud computing forecasts as can be seen from some of the huge growth rates and market size estimates.  With the direction of forecasting by vertical market and process area however, constraints are making the market estimates more realistic.

I’ve summarized the links below for your reference:

• According to IDC, by 2015, about 24% of all new business software purchases will be of service-enabled software with SaaS delivery being 13.1% of worldwide software spending.  IDC further predicts that 14.4% of applications spending will be SaaS-based in the same time period. Source: http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=232239

•  Mobile SaaS Market will reach $1.2 billion in 2011 and grow to $3.7 billion by 2016, with a five-year compound growth rate (CAGR) of 25.8 percent. The ability to integrate business applications on smartphones, tablets and other wireless devices is predicted to accelerate SaaS adoption in the corporate business environment. Source: http://www.analytics-magazine.org/special-articles/454-corporate-mobile-software-as-a-service-forecast-

• The cloud computing marketplace will reach $16.7B in revenue by 2013, according to a new report from the 451 Market Monitor, a market-sizing and forecasting service from The 451 Group. Including the large and well-established software-as-a-service (SaaS) category, cloud computing will grow from revenue of $8.7B 2010 to $16.7B in 2013, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24%. https://451research.com/

• The US cloud computing market for medical imagery was at $56.5M in 2010 and is forecast to grow at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 27% during 2010-2018. Link: http://www.medicaldevice-network.com/features/featuresnapshot-the-us-cloud-computing-market-for-medical-imaging/

• The U.S. Federal Government cloud computing market enters into double-digit growth phase – at about 16% CAGR over the period 2013-2018, with annual federal cloud computing market to hit $10 billion landmark by 2018. Link: http://www.marketresearchmedia.com/2009/05/20/us-federal-cloud-computing-market-forecast-2010-2015/

• Forrester forecasts that the global market for cloud computing will grow from $40.7 billion in 2011 to more than $241 billion in 2020. The total size of the public cloud market will grow from $25.5 billion in 2011 to $159.3 billion in 2020. Link to report excerpt is here.

• Deloitte is predicting cloud-based applications will replace 2.34% of enterprise IT spending in 2014 rising 14.49% in 2020.  The  slide below  is from an excellent presentation by Deloitte titled Cloud Computing Forecast Change downloadable from this link.

• Cisco predicts that Global cloud IP traffic will increase twelvefold over the next 5 years, accounting for  more than one-third (34 percent) of total data center traffic by 2015. Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2010–2015.   The following graphic is from the analysis:

2011 SMB Versus Enterprise Software Budget Allocation to Annual Subscriptions

• Gartner is predicting that the cloud system infrastructure (cloud IaaS) market to grow by 47.8% through 2015. The research firm advises outsourcers not moving in that direction that consolidation and cannibalization will occur in the 2013 – 2014 timeframe  The providers named most often by respondents were Amazon (34%), SunGard (30%) and Verizon Business (30%). Of the global top 10 IT outsourcing market leaders, only CSC appears on the list. Source: User Survey Analysis: Infrastructure as a Service, the 2011 Uptake  Claudio Da Rold,  Allie Young.

External Service Providers Being Considered for IaaS (or Cloud IaaS)