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Roundup of Cloud Computing Forecasts and Market Estimates, 2012

The latest round of cloud computing forecasts released by Cisco, Deloitte, IDC, Forrester, Gartner, The 451 Group and others show how rapidly cloud computing’s adoption in enterprises is happening.  The better forecasts quantify just how and where adoption is and isn’t occurring and why.

Overall, this year’s forecasts have taken into account enterprise constraints more realistically  than prior years, yielding a more reasonable set of market estimates.  There still is much hype surrounding cloud computing forecasts as can be seen from some of the huge growth rates and market size estimates.  With the direction of forecasting by vertical market and process area however, constraints are making the market estimates more realistic.

I’ve summarized the links below for your reference:

  • According to IDC, by 2015, about 24% of all new business software purchases will be of service-enabled software with SaaS delivery being 13.1% of worldwide software spending.  IDC further predicts that 14.4% of applications spending will be SaaS-based in the same time period. Source: http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=232239
  • The cloud computing marketplace will reach $16.7B in revenue by 2013, according to a new report from the 451 Market Monitor, a market-sizing and forecasting service from The 451 Group. Including the large and well-established software-as-a-service (SaaS) category, cloud computing will grow from revenue of $8.7B 2010 to $16.7B in 2013, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24%. https://451research.com/
  • Forrester forecasts that the global market for cloud computing will grow from $40.7 billion in 2011 to more than $241 billion in 2020. The total size of the public cloud market will grow from $25.5 billion in 2011 to $159.3 billion in 2020. Link to report excerpt is here.
  • Deloitte is predicting cloud-based applications will replace 2.34% of enterprise IT spending in 2014 rising 14.49% in 2020.  The  slide below  is from an excellent presentation by Deloitte titled Cloud Computing Forecast Change downloadable from this link.

  • Gartner predicts Small & Medium Business (SMB) in the insurance industry will have a higher rate of cloud adoption (34%) compared to their enterprise counterparts (27%).  Gartner cites that insurance industry’s opportunity to significant improve core process areas through the use of technology.  The following figure from the report, 2011 SMB Versus Enterprise Software Budget Allocation to Annual Subscriptions indicates the differences in software budget allocation for annual subscriptions by vertical market from the report:

2011 SMB Versus Enterprise Software Budget Allocation to Annual Subscriptions

  • Gartner is predicting that the cloud system infrastructure (cloud IaaS) market to grow by 47.8% through 2015. The research firm advises outsourcers not moving in that direction that consolidation and cannibalization will occur in the 2013 – 2014 timeframe  The providers named most often by respondents were Amazon (34%), SunGard (30%) and Verizon Business (30%). Of the global top 10 IT outsourcing market leaders, only CSC appears on the list. Source: User Survey Analysis: Infrastructure as a Service, the 2011 Uptake  Claudio Da Rold,  Allie Young.

External Service Providers Being Considered for IaaS (or Cloud IaaS)

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25 Comments Post a comment
  1. Very compelling piece Louis. I wonder if the symbiosis of Cloud and Mobile have been measured. Surely the acceptance of cloud has a positive effect on the expansion of mobility.

    January 17, 2012
  2. Louis Columbus #

    Hi Lou,

    Thanks for taking the time to read my blog, and I agree, the cloud is definitely a catalyst of growth for mobile services and platforms. What’s particularly interesting to me is how over time mobile devices of all kinds (phones, tablets, et.al.) will have the ability to prioritize all in-bound content and traffic according to the interests and needs of the devices’ owner. Patents in the area of location-based services show great potential for enriching travel experiences, making commutes more efficient and less stressful, and making the entire smart phone and smart device user experience more effective from the customers’ standpoint.

    Have a good evening and thanks again,

    Louis

    January 17, 2012
    • I was just doing some research and came across your blog. Very nice synopsis. In response to your comment, indeed. That is just what we do at Mozzo Analytics. We organize your content based your behaviors. We are automating the organization of embedded content like links and attachments in an effort to make organization in the cloud all the more scalable. Check us out at http://www.mozzoanalytics.com .

      July 22, 2012
  3. Vinay #

    Great compilation. Thanks for taking the effort. I was looking for a survey which rated the top cloud computing infrastructure vendors. It was a survey from infoworld but cant find it anywhere. It rated Vmware as #1 and Cisco and #2..

    August 14, 2012
    • Louis Columbus #

      Hi Vinay,

      Thanks for your kind words and for visiting this blog. Savvis purchased reprint rights to the Magic Quadrant for Public Cloud Infrastructure as a Service, which was published last December. You can find the entire document here: http://www.savvis.com/en-us/info_center/documents/magic_quadrant_for_public_cloud.pdf

      I hope this helps and let me know however I can help you, and also if you want an area written about on this blog.

      Best Regards,

      Louis

      August 14, 2012
  4. Very nice work Louis. As usual, I think Gartner is looking in the rear view mirror though. My company is already serving 30% of US schools with SaaS in the maintenance and IT adminstrative functions. I would argue Education has the highest adoption rates.

    But, nevertheless, thanks for compiling this info.

    August 17, 2012
    • Louis Columbus #

      Lee,

      Thanks for the kind words, and for visiting my blog and sharing your insights. Having taught for twelve years at the collegiate and post-graduate level, I’ve seen SaaS applications revolutionize the teaching process for the better. Students now have such a great opportunity to go further towards their learning goals because of these technologies. The future of SaaS specifically in education is brighter than Gartner suggests, I wholeheartedly agree.

      It is one of the most rewarding aspects of teaching to see a student believe in themselves and their ability to excel. Having learning applications and tools available online is instrumental in making that happen. I hope your company excels, and helps students get to their academic goals.

      Best of luck to you.

      Louis

      August 17, 2012
  5. Hi Louis,

    Just a quick question about Gartner’s cloud adoption data for the insurance industry. What time frame do those percentages refer to? Thanks.

    August 31, 2012
    • Louis Columbus #

      Hi Jason,

      Thanks for your time visiting this blog and for commenting as well. I went back and checked the Gartner report these statistics are from and re-read the methodology. Gartner is measuring 2011 purchases and projected 2012 IT investments in the insurance industry in this specific report. It was published January 16 of this year, hence the methodology including current installs and projected future investment. If you have any further questions don’t hesitate to contact me.

      Have a great weekend and best regards,

      Louis

      September 2, 2012
  6. Behzad #

    Hi Louis,
    Great job putting all these articles together.
    Does any of the above sources speak to where and how ERP solutions will be trending in the future? Let me know pls.

    Behzad

    September 25, 2012
  7. Great blog. Nice to see someone trying to compare the research. I don’t believe most of it. Sometimes I wonder if people just make stuff up.

    February 17, 2013
  8. Reblogged this on CAMTRIVE.

    February 27, 2013

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