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Posts tagged ‘Machine learning’

Gartner’s Top 10 Predictions For IT In 2018 And Beyond

  • In 2020, AI will become a positive net job motivator, creating 2.3M jobs while eliminating only 1.8M jobs.
  • By 2020, IoT technology will be in 95% of electronics for new product designs.
  • By 2021, 40% of IT staff will be versatilists, holding multiple roles, most of which will be business, rather than technology-related.

These and many other insights are being presented earlier this month at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2017 being held in Orlando, Florida. Gartner’s predictions and the series of assumptions supporting them illustrate how CIOs must seek out and excel in the role of business strategist first, technologist second. In 2018 and beyond CIOs will be more accountable than ever for revenue generation, value creation, and the development and launch of new business models using proven and emerging technologies. Gartner’s ten predictions point to the future of CIOs as collaborators in new business creation, selectively using technologies to accomplish that goal.

The following are Gartner’s ten predictions for IT organizations for 2018 and beyond:

  1. By 2021, early adopter brands that redesign their websites to support visual- and voice-search will increase digital commerce revenue by 30%. Gartner has found that voice-based search queries are the fastest growing mobile search type. Voice and visual search are accelerating mobile browser- and mobile app-based transactions and will continue to in 2018 and beyond. Mobile browser and app-based transactions are as much as 50% of all transactions on many e-commerce sites today. Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft’s investments in AI and machine learning will be evident in how quickly their visual- and voice-search technologies accelerate in the next two years.
  2. By 2020, five of the top seven digital giants will willfully “self-disrupt” to create their next leadership opportunity. The top digital giants include Alibaba, Amazon, Apple, Baidu, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and Tencent. Examples of self-disruption include AWS Lambda versus traditional cloud virtual machines, Alexa versus screen-based e-commerce, and Apple Face ID versus Touch ID.
  3. By the end of 2020, the banking industry will derive $1B in business value from the use of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies. Gartner estimates that the current combined value of cryptocurrencies in circulation worldwide is $155B (as of October 2017), and this value has been increasing as tokens continue to proliferate and market interest grows. Cryptocurrencies will represent more than half of worldwide blockchain global business value-add through year-end 2023 according to the Gartner predictions study.
  4. By 2022, most people in mature economies will consume more false information than true information. Gartner warns that while AI is proving to be very effective in creating new information, it is just as effective at distorting data to create false information as well. Gartner predicts that before 2020, untrue information will fuel a major financial fraud made possible through high-quality falsehoods moving the financial markets worldwide. By the same year, no significant internet company will fully succeed in its attempts to mitigate this problem. Within three years a significant country will pass regulations or laws seeking to curb the spread of AI-generated false information.
  5. By 2020, AI-driven creation of “counterfeit reality,” or fake content, will outpace AI’s ability to detect it, fomenting digital distrust. AI and machine learning systems today can categorize the content of images faster and more consistently accurate than humans. Gartner cautions that by 2018, a counterfeit video used in a satirical context will begin a public debate once accepted as real by one or both sides of the political spectrum. In the next year, there will be a 10-fold increase in commercial projects to detect fake news according to the predictions study.
  6. By 2021, more than 50% of enterprises will be spending more per annum on bots and chatbot creations than traditional mobile app developments. Gartner is predicting that by 2020, 55% of all large enterprises will have deployed (used in production) at least one bot or chatbot. Rapid advances in natural-language processing (NLP) make today’s chatbots much better at recognizing the user intent than previous generations. According to Gartner’s predictions study, NLP is used to determine the entry point for the decision tree in a chatbot, but a majority of chatbots still use scripted responses in a decision tree.
  7. By 2021, 40% of IT staff will be versatilists, holding multiple roles, most of which will be business, rather than technology-related. By 2019, IT technical specialist hires will fall by more than 5%. Gartner predicts that 50% of enterprises will formalize IT versatilist profiles and job descriptions. 20% of IT organizations will hire versatilists to scale digital business. IT technical specialist employees will fall to 75% of 2017 levels.
  8. In 2020, AI will become a positive net job motivator, creating 2.3M jobs while eliminating only 1.8M jobs. By 2020, AI-related job creation will cross into positive territory, reaching 2 million net-new jobs in 2025. Global IT services firms will have massive job churn in 2018, adding 100,000 jobs and dropping 80,000. By 2021 Gartner predicts, AI augmentation will generate $2.9T in business value and recover 6.2B hours of worker productivity.
  9. By 2020, IoT technology will be in 95% of electronics for new product designs. Gartner predicts IoT-enabled products with smartphone activation emerging at the beginning of 2019.
  10. Through 2022, half of all security budgets for IoT will go to fault remediation, recalls and safety failures rather than protection. Gartner predicts IoT spending will increase sharply after 2020 following better methods of applying security patterns cross-industry in IoT security architectures, growing at more than 50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over current rates.The total IoT security market for products will reach $840.5M by 2020, and a 24% CAGR for IoT security from 2013 through 2020. Combining IoT security services, safety systems, and physical security will lead to a fast-growing global market. Gartner predicts exponential growth in this area, exceeding more than $5B in global spending by year-end 2020.

Gartner has also made an infographic available of the top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2018, in addition to an insightful article on Smarter with Gartner.  You can find the article here, at Gartner Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2018.

Sources:

Gartner Reveals Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2018 and Beyond

Smarter With Gartner, Gartner Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2018

Top Strategic Predictions for 2018 and Beyond: Pace Yourself, for Sanity’s Sake (client access reqd)

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How Artificial Intelligence Is Revolutionizing Business In 2017

  • 84% of respondents say AI will enable them to obtain or sustain a competitive advantage.
  • 83% believe AI is a strategic priority for their businesses today.
  • 75% state that AI will allow them to move into new businesses and ventures.

These and many other fascinating insights are from the Boston Consulting Group and MIT Sloan Management Review study published this week, Reshaping Business With Artificial Intelligence. An online summary of the report is available here. The survey is based on interviews with more than 3,000 business executives, managers, and analysts in 112 countries and 21 industries. For additional details regarding the methodology, please see page 4.

The research found significant gaps between companies who have already adopted and understand Artificial Intelligence (AI) and those lagging. AI early adopters invest heavily in analytics expertise and ensuring the quality of algorithms and data can scale across their enterprise-wide information and knowledge needs. The leading companies who excel at using AI to plan new businesses and streamline existing processes all have solid senior management support for each AI initiative.

Key takeaways include the following:

  • 72% of respondents in the technology, media, and telecommunications industry expect AI to have a significant impact on product offerings in the next five years. The technology, media and telecommunications industry has the highest expectations for AI to accelerate new product and service offerings of all industries tracked in the study, projecting a 52% point increase in the next five years. AI-based improvements are expected to deliver Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) gains in the Financial Services and Professional Services industries as well. The following graphic compares expectations for AI’s expected contributions to business offerings and process improvements over the next five years by industry.

  • Customer-facing activities including marketing automation, support, and service in addition to IT and supply chain management are predicted to be the most affected areas by AI in the next five years. Demand management, supply chain optimization, more efficient distributed order management systems, and Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems that can scale to support new business models are a few of the many areas AI will make contributions to the in the next five years. The following graphic provides an overview of operations, IT, customer-facing, and corporate center functions where AI is predicted to contribute.

  • 84% of respondents say AI will enable them to obtain or sustain a competitive advantage. 75% state that AI will allow them to move into new businesses and ventures. The research shows that AI will be the catalyst of entirely new business models and change the competitive landscape of entire industries in the next five years. 69% of respondents expect incumbent competitors in their industry to use AI to gain an advantage. 63% believe the pressure to reduce costs will require their organizations to use AI in the next five years.

  • Despite high expectations for AI, only 23% of respondents have incorporated it into processes and product and service offerings today. An additional 23% have one or more pilots in progress, and 54% have no adoption plans in progress, 22% of which have no current plans. The following graphic provides insights into the current adoption of AI with survey respondents.

  • By completing a cluster analysis of survey respondents based on AI understanding and adoption questions, four distinct maturity groups emerged including Pioneers, Investigators, Experimenters, and Passives. 19% of the respondent base is Pioneers or those organizations who understand and are adopting AI. The study says that “these organizations are on the leading edge of incorporating AI into both their organization’s offerings and internal processes.” Investigators (32%) are organizations that understand AI but are not deploying it beyond the pilot stage. Experimenters (13%) are organizations that are piloting or adopting AI without deep understanding. Passives (36%) are organizations with no adoption or much knowledge of AI.

  • Pioneers and Investigators are finding new ways to use AI to create entirely new sources of business value. Pioneers (91%) and Investigators (90%) are much more likely to report that their organization recognizes how AI affects business value than Experimenters (32%) and Passives (23%). One of the most differentiating aspects of the four maturity clusters is understanding the differences and value of investing in high-quality data and advanced AI algorithms. Compared to Passives, Pioneers are 12 times more likely to understand the process for training algorithms and ten times more likely to comprehend the development costs of AI-based products and services.

  • Organizations in the Pioneer cluster excel at analytics expertise versus competitors and have exceptional data governance processes in place, further accelerating their AI-driven growth. Pioneers are excellent at change management, citing their senior management’s vision and leadership as a foundational strength in accomplishing their AI-based initiative Early adopter Pioneers are also adept at product development, capable of changing existing products and services to take advantage of new technologies.

  • 61% of all organizations interviewed see developing an AI strategy as urgent, yet only 50% have one done today. The research found that regarding company size, the largest companies (those with more than 100K employees) are the most likely to have an AI strategy, but only half (56%) have one. The following graphic compares the percentage of respondents by maturity cluster who say developing a plan for Al is urgent for their organization relative to those that have a strategy in place today.

  • 70% of respondents are personally looking forward to delegating the more mundane, repetitive aspects of their jobs to AI. 84% believe employees will need to change their skill sets to excel at delivering AI-based initiatives and strategies. Taking this approach provides career growth and a chance to become more marketable for many whose jobs that are being increasingly automated. Cautious optimism regarding AI’s effects on employment dominates early adopter organizations, not dire fatalism. The bottom line is that AI is providing opportunities for career growth that will only accelerate in the future. Those that seize the chance to learn and earn more will end up having AI removing the mundane tasks from their jobs, leaving more time for the most challenging and rewarding work.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2017 Adds 5G, Edge Computing For First Time

  • Gartner added eight new technologies to the Hype Cycle this year including 5G, Artificial General Intelligence, Deep Learning, Edge Computing, Serverless PaaS.
  • Virtual Personal Assistants, Personal Analytics, Data Broker PaaS (dbrPaaS) are no longer included in the Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies.

The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2017 provides insights gained from evaluations of more than 2,000 technologies the research and advisory firms tracks. From this large base of technologies, the technologies that show the most potential for delivering a competitive advantage over the next five to 10 years are included in the Hype Cycle.

The eight technologies added to the Hype Cycle this year include 5G, Artificial General Intelligence, Deep Learning, Deep Reinforcement Learning, Digital Twin, Edge Computing, Serverless PaaS and Cognitive Computing. Ten technologies not included in the hype cycle for 2017 include 802.11ax, Affective Computing, Context Brokering, Gesture Control Devices, Data Broker PaaS (dbrPaaS), Micro Data Centers, Natural-Language Question Answering, Personal Analytics, Smart Data Discovery and Virtual Personal Assistants.

The three most dominant trends include Artifical Intelligence (AI) Everywhere, Transparently Immersive Experiences, and Digital Platforms. Gartner believes that key platform-enabling technologies are 5G, Digital Twin, Edge Computing, Blockchain, IoT Platforms, Neuromorphic Hardware, Quantum Computing, Serverless PaaS and Software-Defined Security.

Key takeaways from this year’s Hype Cycle include the following:

  • Heavy R&D spending from Amazon, Apple, Baidu, Google, IBM, Microsoft, and Facebook is fueling a race for Deep Learning and Machine Learning patents today and will accelerate in the future – The race is on for Intellectual Property (IP) in deep learning and machine learning today. The success of Amazon Alexa, Apple Siri, Google’s Google Now, Microsoft’s Cortana and others are making this area the top priority for R&D investment by these companies today. Gartner predicts deep-learning applications and tools will be a standard component in 80% of data scientists’ tool boxes by 2018. Amazon Machine Learning is available on Amazon Web Services today, accessible here.  Apple has also launched a Machine Learning JournalBaidu Research provides a site full of useful information on their ongoing research and development as well. Google Research is one of the most comprehensive of all, with a wealth of publications and research results.  IBM’s AI and Cognitive Computing site can be found here. The Facebook Research site provides a wealth of information on 11 core technologies their R&D team is working on right now. Many of these sites also list open positions on their R&D teams.
  • 5G adoption in the coming decade will bring significant gains for security, scalability, and speed of global cellular networks – Gartner predicts that by 2020, 3% of network-based mobile communications service providers (CSPs) will launch 5G networks commercially. The Hype Cycle report mentions that from 2018 through 2022 organizations will most often utilize 5G to support IoT communications, high definition video and fixed wireless access. AT&T, NTT Docomo, Sprint USA, Telstra, T-Mobile, and Verizon have all announced plans to launch 5G services this year and next.
  • Artificial General Intelligence is going to become pervasive during the next decade, becoming the foundation of AI as a Service – Gartner predicts that AI as a Service will be the enabling core technology that leads to the convergence of AI Everywhere, Transparently Immersive Experiences and Digital Platforms. The research firm is also predicting 4D Printing, Autonomous Vehicles, Brain-Computer Interfaces, Human Augmentation, Quantum Computing, Smart Dust and Volumetric Displays will reach mainstream adoption.

Sources:

Gartner Identifies Three Megatrends That Will Drive Digital Business Into the Next Decade

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2017 (client access required)

McKinsey’s State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

  • Tech giants including Baidu and Google spent between $20B to $30B on AI in 2016, with 90% of this spent on R&D and deployment, and 10% on AI acquisitions.
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment has turned into a race for patents and intellectual property (IP) among the world’s leading tech companies.
  • U.S.-based companies absorbed 66% of all AI investments in 2016. China was second with 17% and growing fast.
  • By providing better search results, Netflix estimates that it is avoiding canceled subscriptions that would reduce its revenue by $1B annually.

These and other findings are from the McKinsey Global Institute Study, and discussion paper, Artificial Intelligence, The Next Digital Frontier (80 pp., PDF, free, no opt-in) published last month. McKinsey Global Institute published an article summarizing the findings titled   How Artificial Intelligence Can Deliver Real Value To Companies. McKinsey interviewed more than 3,000 senior executives on the use of AI technologies, their companies’ prospects for further deployment, and AI’s impact on markets, governments, and individuals.  McKinsey Analytics was also utilized in the development of this study and discussion paper.

Key takeaways from the study include the following:

  • Tech giants including Baidu and Google spent between $20B to $30B on AI in 2016, with 90% of this spent on R&D and deployment, and 10% on AI acquisitions. The current rate of AI investment is 3X the external investment growth since 2013. McKinsey found that 20% of AI-aware firms are early adopters, concentrated in the high-tech/telecom, automotive/assembly and financial services industries. The graphic below illustrates the trends the study team found during their analysis.

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  • AI is turning into a race for patents and intellectual property (IP) among the world’s leading tech companies. McKinsey found that only a small percentage (up to 9%) of Venture Capital (VC), Private Equity (PE), and other external funding. Of all categories that have publically available data, M&A grew the fastest between 2013 And 2016 (85%).The report cites many examples of internal development including Amazon’s investments in robotics and speech recognition, and Salesforce on virtual agents and machine learning. BMW, Tesla, and Toyota lead auto manufacturers in their investments in robotics and machine learning for use in driverless cars. Toyota is planning to invest $1B in establishing a new research institute devoted to AI for robotics and driverless vehicles.

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  • McKinsey estimates that total annual external investment in AI was between $8B to $12B in 2016, with machine learning attracting nearly 60% of that investment. Robotics and speech recognition are two of the most popular investment areas. Investors are most favoring machine learning startups due to quickness code-based start-ups have at scaling up to include new features fast. Software-based machine learning startups are preferred over their more cost-intensive machine-based robotics counterparts that often don’t have their software counterparts do. As a result of these factors and more, Corporate M&A is soaring in this area with the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) reaching approximately 80% from 20-13 to 2016. The following graphic illustrates the distribution of external investments by category from the study.

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  • High tech, telecom, and financial services are the leading early adopters of machine learning and AI. These industries are known for their willingness to invest in new technologies to gain competitive and internal process efficiencies. Many start-ups have also had their start by concentrating on the digital challenges of this industries as well. The\ MGI Digitization Index is a GDP-weighted average of Europe and the United States. See Appendix B of the study for a full list of metrics and explanation of methodology. McKinsey also created an overall AI index shown in the first column below that compares key performance indicators (KPIs) across assets, usage, and labor where AI could contribute. The following is a heat map showing the relative level of AI adoption by industry and key area of asset, usage, and labor category.

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  • McKinsey predicts High Tech, Communications, and Financial Services will be the leading industries to adopt AI in the next three years. The competition for patents and intellectual property (IP) in these three industries is accelerating. Devices, products and services available now and on the roadmaps of leading tech companies will over time reveal the level of innovative activity going on in their R&D labs today. In financial services, for example, there are clear benefits from improved accuracy and speed in AI-optimized fraud-detection systems, forecast to be a $3B market in 2020. The following graphic provides an overview of sectors or industries leading in AI addition today and who intend to grow their investments the most in the next three years.

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  • Healthcare, financial services, and professional services are seeing the greatest increase in their profit margins as a result of AI adoption. McKinsey found that companies who benefit from senior management support for AI initiatives have invested in infrastructure to support its scale and have clear business goals achieve 3 to 15% percentage point higher profit margin. Of the over 3,000 business leaders who were interviewed as part of the survey, the majority expect margins to increase by up to 5% points in the next year.

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  • Amazon has achieved impressive results from its $775 million acquisition of Kiva, a robotics company that automates picking and packing according to the McKinsey study. “Click to ship” cycle time, which ranged from 60 to 75 minutes with humans, fell to 15 minutes with Kiva, while inventory capacity increased by 50%. Operating costs fell an estimated 20%, giving a return of close to 40% on the original investment
  • Netflix has also achieved impressive results from the algorithm it uses to personalize recommendations to its 100 million subscribers worldwide. Netflix found that customers, on average, give up 90 seconds after searching for a movie. By improving search results, Netflix projects that they have avoided canceled subscriptions that would reduce its revenue by $1B annually.

Artificial Intelligence Will Enable 38% Profit Gains By 2035

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  • By 2035 AI technologies have the potential to increase productivity 40% or more.
  • AI will increase economic growth an average of 1.7% across 16 industries by 2035.
  • Information and Communication, Manufacturing and Financial Services will be the top three industries that gain economic growth in 2035 from AI’s benefits.
  • AI will have the most positive effect on Education, Accommodation and Food Services and Construction industry profitability in 2035.

Today Accenture Research and Frontier Economics published How AI Boosts Industry Profits and Innovation. The report is downloadable here (28 pp., PDF, no opt-in).The research compares the economic growth rates of 16 industries, projecting the impact of Artifical Intelligence (AI) on global economic growth through 2035. Using Gross Value Added (GVA) as a close approximation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the study found that the more integrated AI is into economic processes, the greater potential for economic growth.  One of the reports’ noteworthy findings is that AI has the potential to increase economic growth rates by a weighted average of 1.7% across all industries through 2035. Information and Communication (4.8%), Manufacturing (4.4%) and Financial Services (4.3%) are the three sectors that will see the highest annual GVA growth rates driven by AI in 2035. The bottom line is that AI has the potential to boost profitability an average of 38% by 2035 and lead to an economic boost of $14T across 16 industries in 12 economies by 2035.

Key takeaways from the study include the following:

  • AI will increase economic growth by an average of 1.7% across 16 industries by 2035 with Information and Communication, manufacturing and financial services leading all industries. Accenture Research found that the Information and Communication industry has the greatest potential for economic growth from AI. Integrating AI into legacy information and communications systems will deliver significant cost, time and process-related savings quickly. Accenture predicts the time, cost and labor savings will generate up to $4.7T in GVA value in 2035. High growth areas within this industry are cloud, network, and systems security including defining enterprise-wide cloud security strategies.

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  • AI will most increase profitability in Education, Accommodation and Food Services and Construction industries in 2035. Personalized learning programs and automating mundane, routine tasks to free up colleges, universities, and trade school instructors to teach new learning frameworks will accelerate profitability in the education through 2035.  Accommodation & Food Services and Construction are industries with manually-intensive, often isolated processes that will benefit from the increased insights and contextual intelligence from AI throughout the forecast period.

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  • Manufacturing’s adoption of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), smart factories and comparable initiatives are powerful catalysts driving AI adoption. Based on the proliferation of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) devices and the networks and terabytes of data they generate, Accenture predicts AI will contribute an additional $3.76T GVA to manufacturing by 2035. Supply chain management, forecasting, inventory optimization and production scheduling are all areas AI can make immediate contributions to this industry’s profits and long-term economic

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  • Financial Services’ greatest gains from AI will come automating and reducing the errors in mundane, manually-intensive tasks including credit scoring and first-level customer inquiries. Accenture forecasts financial services will benefit $1.2T in additional GVA in 2035 from AI. Follow-on areas of automation in Financial Services include automating market research queries through intelligent bots, and scoring and reviewing mortgages.

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  • By 2035 AI technologies could increase labor productivity 40% or more, doubling economic growth in 12 developed nations. Accenture finds that AI’s immediate impact on profitability is improving individual efficiency and productivity. The economies of the U.S. and Finland are projected to see the greatest economic gains from AI through 2035, with each attaining 2% higher GVA growth.The following graphic compares the 12 nations included in the first phase of the research.

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Machine Learning Is The New Proving Ground For Competitive Advantage

  • 50% of organizations are planning to use machine learning to better understand customers in 2017.
  • 48% are planning to use machine learning to gain greater competitive advantage.
  • Top future applications of machine learning include automated agents/bots (42%), predictive planning (41%), sales & marketing targeting (37%), and smart assistants (37%).

These and many other insights are from a recent survey completed by MIT Technology Review Custom and Google Cloud, Machine Learning: The New Proving Ground for Competitive Advantage (PDF, no opt-in, 10 pp.). Three hundred and seventy-five qualified respondents participated in the study, representing a variety of industries, with the majority being from technology-related organizations (43%). Business services (13%) and financial services (10%) respondents are also included in the study.  Please see page 2 of the study for additional details on the methodology.

Key insights include the following:

  • 50% of those adopting machine learning are seeking more extensive data analysis and insights into how they can improve their core businesses. 46% are seeking greater competitive advantage, and 45% are looking for faster data analysis and speed of insight. 44% are looking at how they can use machine learning to gain enhanced R&D capabilities leading to next-generation products.
If your organization is currently using ML, what are you seeking to gain?*

If your organization is currently using ML, what are you seeking to gain?

  • In organizations now using machine learning, 45% have gained more extensive data analysis and insights. Just over a third (35%) have attained faster data analysis and increased the speed of insight, in addition to enhancing R&D capabilities for next-generation products. The following graphic compares the benefits organizations who have adopted machine learning have gained. One of the primary factors enabling machine learning’s full potential is service oriented frameworks that are synchronous by design, consuming data in real-time without having to move data. enosiX is quickly emerging as a leader in this area, specializing in synchronous real-time Salesforce and SAP integration that enables companies to gain greater insights, intelligence, and deliver measurable results.
your organization is currently using machine learning, what have you actually gained?

If your organization is currently using machine learning, what have you actually gained?

  • 26% of organizations adopting machine learning are committing more than 15% of their budgets to initiatives in this area. 79% of all organizations interviewed are investing in machine learning initiatives today. The following graphic shows the distribution of IT budgets allocated to machine learning during the study’s timeframe of late 2016 and 2017 planning.
What part of your IT budget for 2017 is earmarked for machine learning?

What part of your IT budget for 2017 is earmarked for machine learning? 

  • Half of the organizations (50%) planning to use machine learning to better understand customers in 2017. 48% are adopting machine learning to gain a greater competitive advantage, and 45% are looking to gain more extensive data analysis and data insights. The following graphic compares the benefits organizations adopting machine learning are seeking now.
If your organization is planning to use machine learning, what benefits are you seeking?

If your organization is planning to use machine learning, what benefits are you seeking?

  • Natural language processing (NLP) (49%), text classification and mining(47%), emotion/behavior analysis (47%) and image recognition, classification, and tagging (43%) are the top four projects where machine learning is in use today.  Additional projects now underway include recommendations (42%), personalization (41%), data security (40%), risk analysis (41%), online search (41%) and localization and mapping (39%). Top future uses of machine learning include automated agents/bots (42%), predictive planning (41%), sales & marketing targeting (37%), and smart assistants (37%).
  • 60% of respondents have already implemented a machine learning strategy and committed to ongoing investment in initiatives. 18% have planned to implement a machine learning strategy in the next 12 to 24 months. Of the 60% of respondent companies who have implemented machine learning initiatives, 33% are in the early stages of their strategies, testing use cases. 28% consider their machine learning strategies as mature with between one and five use cases or initiatives ongoing today.

McKinsey’s 2016 Analytics Study Defines The Future Of Machine Learning

  • U.S. retailer supply chain operations who have adopted data and analytics have seen up to a 19% increase in operating margin over the last five years.
  • Design-to-value, supply chain management and after-sales support are three areas where analytics are making a financial contribution in manufacturing.
  • 40% of all the potential value associated with the Internet of Things requires interoperability between IoT systems.

These and many other insights are from the McKinsey Global Institute’s study The Age of Analytics: Competing In A Data-Driven World published in collaboration with McKinsey Analytics this month. You can get a copy of the Executive Summary here (28 pp., free, no opt-in, PDF) and the full report (136 pp., free, no opt-in, PDF) here. Five years ago the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) released Big Data: The Next Frontier For Innovation, Competition, and Productivity (156 pp., free no opt-in, PDF), and in the years since McKinsey sees data science adoption and value accelerate, specifically in the areas of machine learning and deep learning. The study underscores how critical integration is for gaining greater value from data and analytics.

Key takeaways from the study include the following:McKinsey Analytics

  • Location-based services and U.S. retail are showing the greatest progress capturing value from data and analytics. Location-based services are capturing up to 60% of data and analytics value today predicted by McKinsey in their 2011 report. McKinsey predicts there are growing opportunities for businesses to use geospatial data to track assets, teams, and customers across dispersed locations to generate new insights and improve efficiency. U.S. Retail is capturing up to 40%, and Manufacturing, 30%.  The following graphic compares the potential impact as predicted in McKinsey’s 2011 study with the value captured by segment today, including a definition of major barriers to adoption.

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  • Machine learning’s greatest potential across industries includes improving forecasting and predictive analytics. McKinsey analyzed the 120 use cases their research found as most significant in machine learning and then weighted them based on respondents’ mention of each. The result is a heat map of machine learning’s greatest potential impact across industries and use case types.  Please see the report for detailed scorecards of each industry’s use case ranked by impact and data richness.

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  • Machine learning’s potential to deliver real-time optimization across industries is just starting to evolve and will quickly accelerate in the next three years. McKinsey analyzed the data richness associated with each of the 300 machine learning use cases, defining this attribute as a combination of data volume and variety. Please see page 105 of the study for a thorough explanation of McKinsey’s definition of data volume and variety used in the context of this study The result of evaluating machine learning’s data richness by industry is shown in the following heat map:

rich-data-is-an-enabler

  • Enabling autonomous vehicles and personalizing advertising are two of the highest opportunity use cases for machine learning today. Additional use cases with high potential include optimizing pricing, routing, and scheduling based on real-time data in travel and logistics; predicting personalized health outcomes, and optimizing merchandising strategy in retail. McKinsey identified 120 potential use cases of machine learning in 12 industries and surveyed more than 600 industry experts on their potential impact. They found an extraordinary breadth of potential applications for machine learning.  Each of the use cases was identified as being one of the top three in an industry by at least one expert in that industry. McKinsey plotted the top 120 use cases below, with the y-axis shows the volume of available data (encompassing its breadth and frequency), while the x-axis shows the potential impact, based on surveys of more than 600 industry experts. The size of the bubble reflects the diversity of the available data sources.

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  • Designing an appropriate organizational structure to support data and analytics activities (45%), Ensuring senior management involvement (42%), and designing effective data architecture and technology infrastructure (36%) are the three most significant challenges to attaining data and analytics objectives. McKinsey found that the barriers break into the three categories: strategy, leadership, and talent; organizational structure and processes; and technology infrastructure. Approximately half of executives across geographies and industries reported greater difficulty recruiting analytical talent than any other kind of talent. 40% say retention is also an issue.

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  • U.S. retailer supply chain operations who have adopted data and analytics have seen up to a 19% increase in operating margin over the last five years. Using data and analytics to improve merchandising including pricing, assortment, and placement optimization is leading to an additional 16% in operating margin improvement. The following table illustrates data and analytics’ contribution to U.S. retail operations by area.

us-retail-data-sheet

  • Design-to-value, supply chain management and after-sales support are three areas where analytics are making a financial contribution in manufacturing. McKinsey estimates that analytics have increased manufacturer’s gross margins by as much as 40% when used in design-to-value workflows and projects. Up to 15% of after-sales costs have been reduced through the use of analytics that includes product sensor data analysis for after-sales service. There are several interesting companies to watch in this area, with two of the most innovative being Sight Machine and enosiX, with the latter enabling real-time integration between SAP and Salesforce systems. The following graphic illustrates the estimated impact of analytics on manufacturing financial performance by area.

manufacturing

10 Ways Machine Learning Is Revolutionizing Manufacturing

machine learningBottom line: Every manufacturer has the potential to integrate machine learning into their operations and become more competitive by gaining predictive insights into production.

Machine learning’s core technologies align well with the complex problems manufacturers face daily. From striving to keep supply chains operating efficiently to producing customized, built- to-order products on time, machine learning algorithms have the potential to bring greater predictive accuracy to every phase of production. Many of the algorithms being developed are iterative, designed to learn continually and seek optimized outcomes. These algorithms iterate in milliseconds, enabling manufacturers to seek optimized outcomes in minutes versus months.

The ten ways machine learning is revolutionizing manufacturing include the following:

  • Increasing production capacity up to 20% while lowering material consumption rates by 4%. Smart manufacturing systems designed to capitalize on predictive data analytics and machine learning have the potential to improve yield rates at the machine, production cell, and plant levels. The following graphic from General Electric and cited in a National Institute of Standards (NIST) provides a summary of benefits that are being gained using predictive analytics and machine learning in manufacturing today.

typical production improvemensSource: Focus Group: Big Data Analytics for Smart Manufacturing Systems

  • Providing more relevant data so finance, operations, and supply chain teams can better manage factory and demand-side constraints. In many manufacturing companies, IT systems aren’t integrated, which makes it difficult for cross-functional teams to accomplish shared goals. Machine learning has the potential to bring an entirely new level of insight and intelligence into these teams, making their goals of optimizing production workflows, inventory, Work In Process (WIP), and value chain decisions possible.

factory and demand analytics

Source:  GE Global Research Stifel 2015 Industrials Conference

  • Improving preventative maintenance and Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) performance with greater predictive accuracy to the component and part-level. Integrating machine learning databases, apps, and algorithms into cloud platforms are becoming pervasive, as evidenced by announcements from Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. The following graphic illustrates how machine learning is integrated into the Azure platform. Microsoft is enabling Krones to attain their Industrie 4.0 objectives by automating aspects of their manufacturing operations on Microsoft Azure.

Azure IOT Services

Source: Enabling Manufacturing Transformation in a Connected World John Shewchuk Technical Fellow DX, Microsoft

  • Enabling condition monitoring processes that provide manufacturers with the scale to manage Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) at the plant level increasing OEE performance from 65% to 85%. An automotive OEM partnered with Tata Consultancy Services to improve their production processes that had seen Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) of the press line reach a low of 65 percent, with the breakdown time ranging from 17-20 percent.  By integrating sensor data on 15 operating parameters (such as oil pressure, oil temperature, oil viscosity, oil leakage, and air pressure) collected from the equipment every 15 seconds for 12 months. The components of the solution are shown

OEE Graphic

Source: Using Big Data for Machine Learning Analytics in Manufacturing

  • Machine learning is revolutionizing relationship intelligence and Salesforce is quickly emerging as the leader. The series of acquisitions Salesforce is making positions them to be the global leader in machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI). The following table from the Cowen and Company research note, Salesforce: Initiating At Outperform; Growth Engine Is Well Greased published June 23, 2016, summarizes Salesforce’s series of machine learning and AI acquisitions, followed by an analysis of new product releases and estimated revenue contributions. Salesforce’s recent acquisition of e-commerce provider Demandware for $2.8B is analyzed by Alex Konrad is his recent post,     Salesforce Will Acquire Demandware For $2.8 Billion In Move Into Digital Commerce. Cowen & Company predicts Commerce Cloud will contribute $325M in revenue by FY18, with Demandware sales being a significant contributor.

Salesforce AI Acquisitions

Salesforce revenue sources

  • Revolutionizing product and service quality with machine learning algorithms that determine which factors most and least impact quality company-wide. Manufacturers often are challenged with making product and service quality to the workflow level a core part of their companies. Often quality is isolated. Machine learning is revolutionizing product and service quality by determining which internal processes, workflows, and factors contribute most and least to quality objectives being met. Using machine learning manufacturers will be able to attain much greater manufacturing intelligence by predicting how their quality and sourcing decisions contribute to greater Six Sigma performance within the Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control (DMAIC) framework.
  • Increasing production yields by the optimizing of team, machine, supplier and customer requirements are already happening with machine learning. Machine learning is making a difference on the shop floor daily in aerospace & defense, discrete, industrial and high-tech manufacturers today. Manufacturers are turning to more complex, customized products to use more of their production capacity, and machine learning help to optimize the best possible selection of machines, trained staffs, and suppliers.
  • The vision of Manufacturing-as-a-Service will become a reality thanks to machine learning enabling subscription models for production services. Manufacturers whose production processes are designed to support rapid, highly customized production runs are well positioning to launch new businesses that provide a subscription rate for services and scale globally. Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG), electronics providers and retailers whose manufacturing costs have skyrocketed will have the potential to subscribe to a manufacturing service and invest more in branding, marketing, and selling.
  • Machine learning is ideally suited for optimizing supply chains and creating greater economies of scale.  For many complex manufacturers, over 70% of their products are sourced from suppliers that are making trade-offs of which buyer they will fulfill orders for first. Using machine learning, buyers and suppliers could collaborate more effectively and reduce stock-outs, improve forecast accuracy and met or beat more customer delivery dates.
  • Knowing the right price to charge a given customer at the right time to get the most margin and closed sale will be commonplace with machine learning.   Machine learning is extending what enterprise-level price optimization apps provide today.  One of the most significant differences is going to be just how optimizing pricing along with suggested strategies to close deals accelerate sales cycles.

Additional reading:

Cisco Blog: Deus Ex Machina: Machine Learning Acts to Create New Business Outcomes

Enabling Manufacturing Transformation in a Connected World John Shewchuk Technical Fellow DX, Microsoft 

Focus Group: Big Data Analytics for Smart Manufacturing Systems

GE Predix: The Industrial Internet Platform

IDC Manufacturing Insights reprint courtesy of Cisco: Designing and Implementing the Factory of the Future at Mahindra Vehicle Manufacturers

Machine Learning: What It Is And Why It Matters

McKinsey & Company, An Executive’s Guide to Machine Learning

MIT Sloan Management Review, Sales Gets a Machine-Learning Makeover

Stanford University CS 229 Machine Learning Course Materials
The Economist Feature On Machine Learning

UC Berkeley CS 194-10, Fall 2011: Introduction to Machine Learning
Lecture slides, notes

University of Washington CSE 446 – Machine Learning – Winter 2014

Sources:

Lee, J. H., & Ha, S. H. (2009). Recognizing yield patterns through hybrid applications of machine learning techniques. Information Sciences, 179(6), 844-850.

Mackenzie, A. (2015). The production of prediction: What does machine learning want?. European Journal of Cultural Studies, 18(4-5), 429-445.

Pham, D. T., & Afify, A. A. (2005, July). Applications of machine learning in manufacturing. In Intelligent Production Machines and Systems, 1st I* PROMS Virtual International Conference (pp. 225-230).

Priore, P., de la Fuente, D., Puente, J., & Parreño, J. (2006). A comparison of machine-learning algorithms for dynamic scheduling of flexible manufacturing systems. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 19(3), 247-255.

Internet of Things, Machine Learning & Robotics Are High Priorities For Developers In 2016

  • 200213603-00156.4% of developers are building robotics apps today.
  • 45% of developers say that Internet of Things (IoT) development is critical to their overall digital strategy.
  • 27.4% of all developers are building apps in the cloud today.
  • 24.7% are using machine learning for development projects.

These and many other insights are from the Evans Data Corporation Global Development Survey, Volume 1 (PDF, client access) published earlier this month. The methodology was based on interviews with developers actively creating new applications with the latest technologies. The Evans Data Corporation (EDC), International Panel of Developers, were sent invitations to participate and complete the survey online. 1,441 developers completed the survey globally. Please see page 17 of the study for additional details on the methodology.

Key takeaways from the study include the following:

  • Big Data analytics developers are spending the majority of their time creating Internet of Things (IoT).  The second-most popular Big Data analytics applications are in professional, scientific and technical services (10%), telecommunications (10%), and manufacturing (non-computer related) (9.6%). The following graphic provides an overview of where Big Data analytics developers are investing their time building new applications.

Best Describes App

  • Robotics (56.4%), Arts, Entertainment and Recreation (56.3%), and Automotive (52.9%) are the three most popular industries data mining app developers are focusing on today. Additional high priority industries include telecommunications (48.3%), Internet of Things (47.1%) and manufacturing (46.7%). A graphic from the study is shown below for reference.

Data Mining adoption

  • Nearly one-third (27.4%) of all app developers globally are planning to build new apps on the cloud. 66.9% expect to have a new cloud app within 12 months. Overall, 81.3% of all developers surveyed are building cloud apps today. The following graphic compares developers’ predicted timeframes for cloud app development over the next two years.

Plans for Apps In the Clouds

  • Better security (51.9%), more reliability (42%) and better user experience (41%) are the top three areas that motivate developers to move to new cloud platforms. Additional considerations include a better breadth of services (39.4%), networking and data center speed (37.8%), better pricing options (37.5%), better licensing structures (34.6%) and completeness of vision (30.9%). The following graphic compares the key factors that most motivate developers to switch cloud platforms.

key factors

  • 45% of developers say that Internet of Things (IoT) development is very important to their overall digital strategy. 7% say that IoT is somewhat important to their digital strategy. The study also found that 29.5% of all developers are creating Internet of Things (IoT) apps today. The following graphic illustrates the relative level of importance of IoT to developers’ digital strategies.

importance of IoT strategy

  • 41% say that cognitive computing and artificial intelligence (AI) are very important to their digital strategies. In speaking with senior executives at services firms, the opportunity to provide artificial intelligence-based services using a subscription model is gaining momentum, with many beginning to fund development projects to accomplish this on a global scale.

AI Importance

  • Most frequently created machine learning apps include those for the Internet of Things (11.4%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (10%), and Manufacturing (9.4%) industries.  Additional industries include telecommunications (8.3%), utilities/energy (8.1%), robotics (7.2%) and finance or insurance (6.8%). The following graphic breaks out the industries where machine learning app development is happening today.

Machine learning industries final

  • The majority of developers (84.2%) say that analytics is important for enabling their organizations to operate today. Of that group, 45.7% say that analytics are very important for their organizations to attain their goals.

Machine Learning Is Redefining The Enterprise In 2016

machine learning imageBottom line: Machine learning is providing the needed algorithms, applications, and frameworks to bring greater predictive accuracy and value to enterprises’ data, leading to diverse company-wide strategies succeeding faster and more profitably than before.

Industries Where Machine Learning Is Making An Impact  

The good news for businesses is that all the data they have been saving for years can now be turned into a competitive advantage and lead to strategic goals being accomplished. Revenue teams are using machine learning to optimize promotions, compensation and rebates drive the desired behavior across selling channels. Predicting propensity to buy across all channels, making personalized recommendations to customers, forecasting long-term customer loyalty and anticipating potential credit risks of suppliers and buyers are Figure 1 provides an overview of machine learning applications by industry.

machine learning industries

Source: Tata Consultancy Services, Using Big Data for Machine Learning Analytics in Manufacturing – TCS

Machine Learning Is Revolutionizing Sales and Marketing  

Unlike advanced analytics techniques that seek out causality first, machine learning techniques are designed to seek out opportunities to optimize decisions based on the predictive value of large-scale data sets. And increasingly data sets are comprised of structured and unstructured data, with the global proliferation of social networks fueling the growth of the latter type of data.  Machine learning is proving to be efficient at handling predictive tasks including defining which behaviors have the highest propensity to drive desired sales and marketing outcomes. Businesses eager to compete and win more customers are applying machine learning to sales and marketing challenges first.  In the MIT Sloan Management Review article, Sales Gets a Machine-Learning Makeover the Accenture Institute for High Performance shared the results of a recent survey of enterprises with at least $500M in sales that are targeting higher sales growth with machine learning. Key takeaways from their study results include the following:

  • 76% say they are targeting higher sales growth with machine learning. Gaining greater predictive accuracy by creating and optimizing propensity models to guide up-sell and cross-sell is where machine learning is making contributions to omnichannel selling strategies today.
  • At least 40% of companies surveyed are already using machine learning to improve sales and marketing performance. Two out of five companies have already implemented machine learning in sales and marketing.
  • 38% credited machine learning for improvements in sales performance metrics. Metrics the study tracked include new leads, upsells, and sales cycle times by a factor of 2 or more while another 41% created improvements by a factor of 5 or more.
  • Several European banks are increasing new product sales by 10% while reducing churn 20%. A recent McKinsey study found that a dozen European banks are replacing statistical modeling techniques with machine learning. The banks are also increasing customer satisfaction scores and customer lifetime value as well.

Why Machine Learning Adoption Is Accelerating

Machine learning’s ability to scale across the broad spectrum of contract management, customer service, finance, legal, sales, quote-to-cash, quality, pricing and production challenges enterprises face is attributable to its ability to continually learn and improve. Machine learning algorithms are iterative in nature, continually learning and seeking to optimize outcomes.  Every time a miscalculation is made, machine learning algorithms correct the error and begin another iteration of the data analysis. These calculations happen in milliseconds which makes machine learning exceptionally efficient at optimizing decisions and predicting outcomes.
The economics of cloud computing, cloud storage, the proliferation of sensors driving Internet of Things (IoT) connected devices growth, pervasive use of mobile devices that consume gigabytes of data in minutes are a few of the several factors accelerating machine learning adoption. Add to these the many challenges of creating context in search engines and the complicated problems companies face in optimizing operations while predicting most likely outcomes, and the perfect conditions exist for machine learning to proliferate.
The following are the key factors enabling machine learning growth today:

  • Exponential data growth with unstructured data being over 80% of the data an enterprise relies on to make decisions daily. Demand forecasts, CRM and ERP transaction data, transportation costs, barcode and inventory management data, historical pricing, service and support costs and accounting standard costing are just a few of the many sources of structured data enterprises make decisions with today.   The exponential growth of unstructured data that includes social media, e-mail records, call logs, customer service and support records, Internet of Things sensing data, competitor and partner pricing and supply chain tracking data frequently has predictive patterns enterprises are completely missing out on today. Enterprises looking to become competitive leaders are going after the insights in these unstructured data sources and turning them into a competitive advantage with machine learning.
  • The Internet of Things (IoT) networks, embedded systems and devices are generating real-time data that is ideal for further optimizing supply chain networks and increasing demand forecast predictive As IoT platforms, systems, applications and sensors permeate value chains of businesses globally, there is an exponential growth of data generated. The availability and intrinsic value of these large-scale datasets are an impetus further driving machine learning adoption.
  • Generating massive data sets through synthetic means including extrapolation and projection of existing historical data to create realistic simulated data. From weather forecasting to optimizing a supply chain network using advanced simulation techniques that generate terabytes of data, the ability to fine-tune forecasts and attain greater optimizing is also driving machine learning adoption. Simulated data sets of product launch and selling strategies is a nascent application today and one that shows promise in developing propensity models that predict purchase levels.
  • The economics of digital storage and cloud computing are combining to put infrastructure costs into freefall, making machine learning more affordable for all businesses. Online storage and public cloud instances can be purchased literally in minutes online with a credit card. Migrating legacy data off of databases where their accessibility is limited compared to cloud platforms is becoming more commonplace as greatest trust in secure cloud storage increases. For many small businesses who lack IT departments, the Cloud provides a scalable, secure platform for managing their data across diverse geographic locations.

Further reading

Companies Are Reimagining Business Processes with Algorithms. Harvard Business Review. February 8, 2016.  H. James Wilson, Allan Alter, Prashant Shukla. Source: https://hbr.org/2016/02/companies-are-reimagining-business-processes-with-algorithms

Domingos, P. (2012). A Few Useful Things to Know About Machine Learning. Communications Of The ACM, 55(10), 78-87.

Pyle, D., & San José, C. (2015). An executive’s guide to machine learning. Mckinsey Quarterly, (3), 44-53. Link: http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/an-executives-guide-to-machine-learning

Sales Gets A Machine-Learning Makeover.  MIT Sloan Management Review, May 17, 2016. H. James Wilson, Narendra Mulani, Allan Alter. Source: http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/sales-gets-a-machine-learning-makeover/Sebag, M. (2014).

The Next Wave Of Enterprise Software Powered By Machine Learning.  TechCrunch, July 27, 2015. http://techcrunch.com/2015/07/27/the-next-wave-of-enterprise-software-powered-by-machine-learning/

What Every Manager Should Know About Machine Learning, Harvard Business Review,  July 7, 2015.  Link: https://hbr.org/2015/07/what-every-manager-should-know-about-machine-learning

What Is Machine Learning? Making The Complex Simple.  Mike Ferguson.  IBM Big Data & Analytics Hub. Link: http://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/blog/what-machine-learning

World Economic Forum White Paper Digital Transformation of Industries: In collaboration with Accenture Digital Enterprise, January 2016. Link: http://reports.weforum.org/digital-transformation-of-industries/wp-content/blogs.dir/94/mp/files/pages/files/digital-enterprise-narrative-final-january-2016.pdf

Yan, J., Zhang, C., Zha, H., Gong, M., Sun, C., Huang, J., & Yang, X. (2015, February). On machine learning towards predictive sales pipeline analytics. In Twenty-Ninth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence.  Link: http://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/AAAI/AAAI15/paper/viewFile/9444/9488

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