These and many other fascinating insights are from Stanford University’s inaugural AI Index (PDF, no opt-in, 101 pp.). Stanford has undertaken a One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI100) looking at the effects of AI on people’s lives, basing the inaugural report and index on the initial findings. The study finds “that we’re essentially “flying blind” in our conversations and decision-making related to Artificial Intelligence.” The AI Index is focused on tracking activity and progress on AI initiatives, and to facilitate informed conversations grounded with reliable, verifiable data. All data used to produce the AI Index and report is available at aiindex.org. Please see the AI Index for additional details regarding the methodology used to create each of the following graphs.
The following ten charts from the AI Index report provides insights into AI’s rapid growth:
- The number of Computer Science academic papers and studies has soared by more than 9X since 1996. Academic studies and research are often the precursors to new intellectual property and patents. The entire Scopus database contains over 200,000 (200,237) papers in the field of Computer Science that have been indexed with the key term “Artificial Intelligence.” The Scopus database contains almost 5 million (4,868,421) papers in the subject area “Computer Science.”
- There have been a 6X increase in the annual investment levels by venture capital (VC) investors into U.S.-based Ai startups since 2000. Crunchbase, VentureSource, and Sand Hill Econometrics were used to determine the amount of funding invested each year by venture capitalists into startups where AI plays an important role in some key function of the business. The following graphic illustrates the amount of annual funding by VC’s into US AI startups across all funding stages.
- There has been a 14X increase in the number of active AI startups since 2000. Crunchbase, VentureSource, and Sand Hill Econometrics were also used for completing this analysis with AI startups in Crunchbase cross-referenced to venture-backed companies in the VentureSource database. Any venture-backed companies from the Crunchbase list that were identified in the VentureSource database were included.
- The share of jobs requiring AI skills has grown 4.5X since 2013., The growth of the share of US jobs requiring AI skills on the Indeed.com platform was calculated by first identifying AI-related jobs using titles and keywords in descriptions. Job growth is a calculated as a multiple of the share of jobs on the Indeed platform that required AI skills in the U.S. starting in January 2013. The study also calculated the growth of the share of jobs requiring AI skills on the Indeed.com platform, by country. Despite the rapid growth of the Canada and UK. AI job markets, Indeed.com reports they are respectively still 5% and 27% of the absolute size of the US AI job market.
- Machine Learning, Deep Learning and Natural Language Processing (NLP) are the three most in-demand skills on Monster.com. Just two years ago NLP had been predicted to be the most in-demand skill for application developers creating new AI apps. In addition to skills creating AI apps, machine learning techniques, Python, Java, C++, experience with open source development environments, Spark, MATLAB, and Hadoop are the most in-demand skills. Based on an analysis of Monster.com entries as of today, the median salary is $127,000 in the U.S. for Data Scientists, Senior Data Scientists, Artificial Intelligence Consultants and Machine Learning Managers.
- Error rates for image labeling have fallen from 28.5% to below 2.5% since 2010. AI’s inflection point for Object Detection task of the Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge (LSVRC) Competition occurred in 2014. On this specific test, AI is now more accurate than human These findings are from the competition data from the leaderboards for each LSVRC competition hosted on the ImageNet website.
- Global revenues from AI for enterprise applications is projected to grow from $1.62B in 2018 to $31.2B in 2025 attaining a 52.59% CAGR in the forecast period. Image recognition and tagging, patient data processing, localization and mapping, predictive maintenance, use of algorithms and machine learning to predict and thwart security threats, intelligent recruitment, and HR systems are a few of the many enterprise application use cases predicted to fuel the projected rapid growth of AI in the enterprise. Source: Statista.
- 84% of enterprises believe investing in AI will lead to greater competitive advantages. 75% believe that AI will open up new businesses while also providing competitors new ways to gain access to their markets. 63% believe the pressure to reduce costs will require the use of AI. Source: Statista.
- 87% of current AI adopters said they were using or considering using AI for sales forecasting and for improving e-mail marketing. 61% of all respondents said that they currently used or were planning to use AI for sales forecasting. The following graphic compares adoption rates of current AI adopters versus all respondents. Source: Statista.
- By 2021, 40% of IT staff will be versatilists, holding multiple roles, most of which will be business, rather than technology-related.
These and many other insights are being presented earlier this month at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2017 being held in Orlando, Florida. Gartner’s predictions and the series of assumptions supporting them illustrate how CIOs must seek out and excel in the role of business strategist first, technologist second. In 2018 and beyond CIOs will be more accountable than ever for revenue generation, value creation, and the development and launch of new business models using proven and emerging technologies. Gartner’s ten predictions point to the future of CIOs as collaborators in new business creation, selectively using technologies to accomplish that goal.
The following are Gartner’s ten predictions for IT organizations for 2018 and beyond:
- By 2021, early adopter brands that redesign their websites to support visual- and voice-search will increase digital commerce revenue by 30%. Gartner has found that voice-based search queries are the fastest growing mobile search type. Voice and visual search are accelerating mobile browser- and mobile app-based transactions and will continue to in 2018 and beyond. Mobile browser and app-based transactions are as much as 50% of all transactions on many e-commerce sites today. Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft’s investments in AI and machine learning will be evident in how quickly their visual- and voice-search technologies accelerate in the next two years.
- By 2020, five of the top seven digital giants will willfully “self-disrupt” to create their next leadership opportunity. The top digital giants include Alibaba, Amazon, Apple, Baidu, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and Tencent. Examples of self-disruption include AWS Lambda versus traditional cloud virtual machines, Alexa versus screen-based e-commerce, and Apple Face ID versus Touch ID.
- By the end of 2020, the banking industry will derive $1B in business value from the use of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies. Gartner estimates that the current combined value of cryptocurrencies in circulation worldwide is $155B (as of October 2017), and this value has been increasing as tokens continue to proliferate and market interest grows. Cryptocurrencies will represent more than half of worldwide blockchain global business value-add through year-end 2023 according to the Gartner predictions study.
- By 2022, most people in mature economies will consume more false information than true information. Gartner warns that while AI is proving to be very effective in creating new information, it is just as effective at distorting data to create false information as well. Gartner predicts that before 2020, untrue information will fuel a major financial fraud made possible through high-quality falsehoods moving the financial markets worldwide. By the same year, no significant internet company will fully succeed in its attempts to mitigate this problem. Within three years a significant country will pass regulations or laws seeking to curb the spread of AI-generated false information.
- By 2020, AI-driven creation of “counterfeit reality,” or fake content, will outpace AI’s ability to detect it, fomenting digital distrust. AI and machine learning systems today can categorize the content of images faster and more consistently accurate than humans. Gartner cautions that by 2018, a counterfeit video used in a satirical context will begin a public debate once accepted as real by one or both sides of the political spectrum. In the next year, there will be a 10-fold increase in commercial projects to detect fake news according to the predictions study.
- By 2021, more than 50% of enterprises will be spending more per annum on bots and chatbot creations than traditional mobile app developments. Gartner is predicting that by 2020, 55% of all large enterprises will have deployed (used in production) at least one bot or chatbot. Rapid advances in natural-language processing (NLP) make today’s chatbots much better at recognizing the user intent than previous generations. According to Gartner’s predictions study, NLP is used to determine the entry point for the decision tree in a chatbot, but a majority of chatbots still use scripted responses in a decision tree.
- By 2021, 40% of IT staff will be versatilists, holding multiple roles, most of which will be business, rather than technology-related. By 2019, IT technical specialist hires will fall by more than 5%. Gartner predicts that 50% of enterprises will formalize IT versatilist profiles and job descriptions. 20% of IT organizations will hire versatilists to scale digital business. IT technical specialist employees will fall to 75% of 2017 levels.
- In 2020, AI will become a positive net job motivator, creating 2.3M jobs while eliminating only 1.8M jobs. By 2020, AI-related job creation will cross into positive territory, reaching 2 million net-new jobs in 2025. Global IT services firms will have massive job churn in 2018, adding 100,000 jobs and dropping 80,000. By 2021 Gartner predicts, AI augmentation will generate $2.9T in business value and recover 6.2B hours of worker productivity.
- By 2020, IoT technology will be in 95% of electronics for new product designs. Gartner predicts IoT-enabled products with smartphone activation emerging at the beginning of 2019.
- Through 2022, half of all security budgets for IoT will go to fault remediation, recalls and safety failures rather than protection. Gartner predicts IoT spending will increase sharply after 2020 following better methods of applying security patterns cross-industry in IoT security architectures, growing at more than 50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over current rates.The total IoT security market for products will reach $840.5M by 2020, and a 24% CAGR for IoT security from 2013 through 2020. Combining IoT security services, safety systems, and physical security will lead to a fast-growing global market. Gartner predicts exponential growth in this area, exceeding more than $5B in global spending by year-end 2020.
Gartner has also made an infographic available of the top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2018, in addition to an insightful article on Smarter with Gartner. You can find the article here, at Gartner Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2018.
Gartner Reveals Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2018 and Beyond
Smarter With Gartner, Gartner Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2018
Top Strategic Predictions for 2018 and Beyond: Pace Yourself, for Sanity’s Sake (client access reqd)
These and many other fascinating insights are from the Boston Consulting Group and MIT Sloan Management Review study published this week, Reshaping Business With Artificial Intelligence. An online summary of the report is available here. The survey is based on interviews with more than 3,000 business executives, managers, and analysts in 112 countries and 21 industries. For additional details regarding the methodology, please see page 4.
The research found significant gaps between companies who have already adopted and understand Artificial Intelligence (AI) and those lagging. AI early adopters invest heavily in analytics expertise and ensuring the quality of algorithms and data can scale across their enterprise-wide information and knowledge needs. The leading companies who excel at using AI to plan new businesses and streamline existing processes all have solid senior management support for each AI initiative.
Key takeaways include the following:
- 72% of respondents in the technology, media, and telecommunications industry expect AI to have a significant impact on product offerings in the next five years. The technology, media and telecommunications industry has the highest expectations for AI to accelerate new product and service offerings of all industries tracked in the study, projecting a 52% point increase in the next five years. AI-based improvements are expected to deliver Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) gains in the Financial Services and Professional Services industries as well. The following graphic compares expectations for AI’s expected contributions to business offerings and process improvements over the next five years by industry.
- Customer-facing activities including marketing automation, support, and service in addition to IT and supply chain management are predicted to be the most affected areas by AI in the next five years. Demand management, supply chain optimization, more efficient distributed order management systems, and Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems that can scale to support new business models are a few of the many areas AI will make contributions to the in the next five years. The following graphic provides an overview of operations, IT, customer-facing, and corporate center functions where AI is predicted to contribute.
- 84% of respondents say AI will enable them to obtain or sustain a competitive advantage. 75% state that AI will allow them to move into new businesses and ventures. The research shows that AI will be the catalyst of entirely new business models and change the competitive landscape of entire industries in the next five years. 69% of respondents expect incumbent competitors in their industry to use AI to gain an advantage. 63% believe the pressure to reduce costs will require their organizations to use AI in the next five years.
- Despite high expectations for AI, only 23% of respondents have incorporated it into processes and product and service offerings today. An additional 23% have one or more pilots in progress, and 54% have no adoption plans in progress, 22% of which have no current plans. The following graphic provides insights into the current adoption of AI with survey respondents.
- By completing a cluster analysis of survey respondents based on AI understanding and adoption questions, four distinct maturity groups emerged including Pioneers, Investigators, Experimenters, and Passives. 19% of the respondent base is Pioneers or those organizations who understand and are adopting AI. The study says that “these organizations are on the leading edge of incorporating AI into both their organization’s offerings and internal processes.” Investigators (32%) are organizations that understand AI but are not deploying it beyond the pilot stage. Experimenters (13%) are organizations that are piloting or adopting AI without deep understanding. Passives (36%) are organizations with no adoption or much knowledge of AI.
- Pioneers and Investigators are finding new ways to use AI to create entirely new sources of business value. Pioneers (91%) and Investigators (90%) are much more likely to report that their organization recognizes how AI affects business value than Experimenters (32%) and Passives (23%). One of the most differentiating aspects of the four maturity clusters is understanding the differences and value of investing in high-quality data and advanced AI algorithms. Compared to Passives, Pioneers are 12 times more likely to understand the process for training algorithms and ten times more likely to comprehend the development costs of AI-based products and services.
- Organizations in the Pioneer cluster excel at analytics expertise versus competitors and have exceptional data governance processes in place, further accelerating their AI-driven growth. Pioneers are excellent at change management, citing their senior management’s vision and leadership as a foundational strength in accomplishing their AI-based initiative Early adopter Pioneers are also adept at product development, capable of changing existing products and services to take advantage of new technologies.
- 61% of all organizations interviewed see developing an AI strategy as urgent, yet only 50% have one done today. The research found that regarding company size, the largest companies (those with more than 100K employees) are the most likely to have an AI strategy, but only half (56%) have one. The following graphic compares the percentage of respondents by maturity cluster who say developing a plan for Al is urgent for their organization relative to those that have a strategy in place today.
- 70% of respondents are personally looking forward to delegating the more mundane, repetitive aspects of their jobs to AI. 84% believe employees will need to change their skill sets to excel at delivering AI-based initiatives and strategies. Taking this approach provides career growth and a chance to become more marketable for many whose jobs that are being increasingly automated. Cautious optimism regarding AI’s effects on employment dominates early adopter organizations, not dire fatalism. The bottom line is that AI is providing opportunities for career growth that will only accelerate in the future. Those that seize the chance to learn and earn more will end up having AI removing the mundane tasks from their jobs, leaving more time for the most challenging and rewarding work.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment has turned into a race for patents and intellectual property (IP) among the world’s leading tech companies.
- By providing better search results, Netflix estimates that it is avoiding canceled subscriptions that would reduce its revenue by $1B annually.
These and other findings are from the McKinsey Global Institute Study, and discussion paper, Artificial Intelligence, The Next Digital Frontier (80 pp., PDF, free, no opt-in) published last month. McKinsey Global Institute published an article summarizing the findings titled How Artificial Intelligence Can Deliver Real Value To Companies. McKinsey interviewed more than 3,000 senior executives on the use of AI technologies, their companies’ prospects for further deployment, and AI’s impact on markets, governments, and individuals. McKinsey Analytics was also utilized in the development of this study and discussion paper.
Key takeaways from the study include the following:
- Tech giants including Baidu and Google spent between $20B to $30B on AI in 2016, with 90% of this spent on R&D and deployment, and 10% on AI acquisitions. The current rate of AI investment is 3X the external investment growth since 2013. McKinsey found that 20% of AI-aware firms are early adopters, concentrated in the high-tech/telecom, automotive/assembly and financial services industries. The graphic below illustrates the trends the study team found during their analysis.
- AI is turning into a race for patents and intellectual property (IP) among the world’s leading tech companies. McKinsey found that only a small percentage (up to 9%) of Venture Capital (VC), Private Equity (PE), and other external funding. Of all categories that have publically available data, M&A grew the fastest between 2013 And 2016 (85%).The report cites many examples of internal development including Amazon’s investments in robotics and speech recognition, and Salesforce on virtual agents and machine learning. BMW, Tesla, and Toyota lead auto manufacturers in their investments in robotics and machine learning for use in driverless cars. Toyota is planning to invest $1B in establishing a new research institute devoted to AI for robotics and driverless vehicles.
- McKinsey estimates that total annual external investment in AI was between $8B to $12B in 2016, with machine learning attracting nearly 60% of that investment. Robotics and speech recognition are two of the most popular investment areas. Investors are most favoring machine learning startups due to quickness code-based start-ups have at scaling up to include new features fast. Software-based machine learning startups are preferred over their more cost-intensive machine-based robotics counterparts that often don’t have their software counterparts do. As a result of these factors and more, Corporate M&A is soaring in this area with the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) reaching approximately 80% from 20-13 to 2016. The following graphic illustrates the distribution of external investments by category from the study.
- High tech, telecom, and financial services are the leading early adopters of machine learning and AI. These industries are known for their willingness to invest in new technologies to gain competitive and internal process efficiencies. Many start-ups have also had their start by concentrating on the digital challenges of this industries as well. The\ MGI Digitization Index is a GDP-weighted average of Europe and the United States. See Appendix B of the study for a full list of metrics and explanation of methodology. McKinsey also created an overall AI index shown in the first column below that compares key performance indicators (KPIs) across assets, usage, and labor where AI could contribute. The following is a heat map showing the relative level of AI adoption by industry and key area of asset, usage, and labor category.
- McKinsey predicts High Tech, Communications, and Financial Services will be the leading industries to adopt AI in the next three years. The competition for patents and intellectual property (IP) in these three industries is accelerating. Devices, products and services available now and on the roadmaps of leading tech companies will over time reveal the level of innovative activity going on in their R&D labs today. In financial services, for example, there are clear benefits from improved accuracy and speed in AI-optimized fraud-detection systems, forecast to be a $3B market in 2020. The following graphic provides an overview of sectors or industries leading in AI addition today and who intend to grow their investments the most in the next three years.
- Healthcare, financial services, and professional services are seeing the greatest increase in their profit margins as a result of AI adoption. McKinsey found that companies who benefit from senior management support for AI initiatives have invested in infrastructure to support its scale and have clear business goals achieve 3 to 15% percentage point higher profit margin. Of the over 3,000 business leaders who were interviewed as part of the survey, the majority expect margins to increase by up to 5% points in the next year.
- Amazon has achieved impressive results from its $775 million acquisition of Kiva, a robotics company that automates picking and packing according to the McKinsey study. “Click to ship” cycle time, which ranged from 60 to 75 minutes with humans, fell to 15 minutes with Kiva, while inventory capacity increased by 50%. Operating costs fell an estimated 20%, giving a return of close to 40% on the original investment
- Netflix has also achieved impressive results from the algorithm it uses to personalize recommendations to its 100 million subscribers worldwide. Netflix found that customers, on average, give up 90 seconds after searching for a movie. By improving search results, Netflix projects that they have avoided canceled subscriptions that would reduce its revenue by $1B annually.
- Information and Communication, Manufacturing and Financial Services will be the top three industries that gain economic growth in 2035 from AI’s benefits.
- AI will have the most positive effect on Education, Accommodation and Food Services and Construction industry profitability in 2035.
Today Accenture Research and Frontier Economics published How AI Boosts Industry Profits and Innovation. The report is downloadable here (28 pp., PDF, no opt-in).The research compares the economic growth rates of 16 industries, projecting the impact of Artifical Intelligence (AI) on global economic growth through 2035. Using Gross Value Added (GVA) as a close approximation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the study found that the more integrated AI is into economic processes, the greater potential for economic growth. One of the reports’ noteworthy findings is that AI has the potential to increase economic growth rates by a weighted average of 1.7% across all industries through 2035. Information and Communication (4.8%), Manufacturing (4.4%) and Financial Services (4.3%) are the three sectors that will see the highest annual GVA growth rates driven by AI in 2035. The bottom line is that AI has the potential to boost profitability an average of 38% by 2035 and lead to an economic boost of $14T across 16 industries in 12 economies by 2035.
Key takeaways from the study include the following:
- AI will increase economic growth by an average of 1.7% across 16 industries by 2035 with Information and Communication, manufacturing and financial services leading all industries. Accenture Research found that the Information and Communication industry has the greatest potential for economic growth from AI. Integrating AI into legacy information and communications systems will deliver significant cost, time and process-related savings quickly. Accenture predicts the time, cost and labor savings will generate up to $4.7T in GVA value in 2035. High growth areas within this industry are cloud, network, and systems security including defining enterprise-wide cloud security strategies.
- AI will most increase profitability in Education, Accommodation and Food Services and Construction industries in 2035. Personalized learning programs and automating mundane, routine tasks to free up colleges, universities, and trade school instructors to teach new learning frameworks will accelerate profitability in the education through 2035. Accommodation & Food Services and Construction are industries with manually-intensive, often isolated processes that will benefit from the increased insights and contextual intelligence from AI throughout the forecast period.
- Manufacturing’s adoption of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), smart factories and comparable initiatives are powerful catalysts driving AI adoption. Based on the proliferation of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) devices and the networks and terabytes of data they generate, Accenture predicts AI will contribute an additional $3.76T GVA to manufacturing by 2035. Supply chain management, forecasting, inventory optimization and production scheduling are all areas AI can make immediate contributions to this industry’s profits and long-term economic
- Financial Services’ greatest gains from AI will come automating and reducing the errors in mundane, manually-intensive tasks including credit scoring and first-level customer inquiries. Accenture forecasts financial services will benefit $1.2T in additional GVA in 2035 from AI. Follow-on areas of automation in Financial Services include automating market research queries through intelligent bots, and scoring and reviewing mortgages.
- By 2035 AI technologies could increase labor productivity 40% or more, doubling economic growth in 12 developed nations. Accenture finds that AI’s immediate impact on profitability is improving individual efficiency and productivity. The economies of the U.S. and Finland are projected to see the greatest economic gains from AI through 2035, with each attaining 2% higher GVA growth.The following graphic compares the 12 nations included in the first phase of the research.