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Gartner’s Top 10 Predictions For IT In 2018 And Beyond

  • In 2020, AI will become a positive net job motivator, creating 2.3M jobs while eliminating only 1.8M jobs.
  • By 2020, IoT technology will be in 95% of electronics for new product designs.
  • By 2021, 40% of IT staff will be versatilists, holding multiple roles, most of which will be business, rather than technology-related.

These and many other insights are being presented earlier this month at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2017 being held in Orlando, Florida. Gartner’s predictions and the series of assumptions supporting them illustrate how CIOs must seek out and excel in the role of business strategist first, technologist second. In 2018 and beyond CIOs will be more accountable than ever for revenue generation, value creation, and the development and launch of new business models using proven and emerging technologies. Gartner’s ten predictions point to the future of CIOs as collaborators in new business creation, selectively using technologies to accomplish that goal.

The following are Gartner’s ten predictions for IT organizations for 2018 and beyond:

  1. By 2021, early adopter brands that redesign their websites to support visual- and voice-search will increase digital commerce revenue by 30%. Gartner has found that voice-based search queries are the fastest growing mobile search type. Voice and visual search are accelerating mobile browser- and mobile app-based transactions and will continue to in 2018 and beyond. Mobile browser and app-based transactions are as much as 50% of all transactions on many e-commerce sites today. Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft’s investments in AI and machine learning will be evident in how quickly their visual- and voice-search technologies accelerate in the next two years.
  2. By 2020, five of the top seven digital giants will willfully “self-disrupt” to create their next leadership opportunity. The top digital giants include Alibaba, Amazon, Apple, Baidu, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and Tencent. Examples of self-disruption include AWS Lambda versus traditional cloud virtual machines, Alexa versus screen-based e-commerce, and Apple Face ID versus Touch ID.
  3. By the end of 2020, the banking industry will derive $1B in business value from the use of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies. Gartner estimates that the current combined value of cryptocurrencies in circulation worldwide is $155B (as of October 2017), and this value has been increasing as tokens continue to proliferate and market interest grows. Cryptocurrencies will represent more than half of worldwide blockchain global business value-add through year-end 2023 according to the Gartner predictions study.
  4. By 2022, most people in mature economies will consume more false information than true information. Gartner warns that while AI is proving to be very effective in creating new information, it is just as effective at distorting data to create false information as well. Gartner predicts that before 2020, untrue information will fuel a major financial fraud made possible through high-quality falsehoods moving the financial markets worldwide. By the same year, no significant internet company will fully succeed in its attempts to mitigate this problem. Within three years a significant country will pass regulations or laws seeking to curb the spread of AI-generated false information.
  5. By 2020, AI-driven creation of “counterfeit reality,” or fake content, will outpace AI’s ability to detect it, fomenting digital distrust. AI and machine learning systems today can categorize the content of images faster and more consistently accurate than humans. Gartner cautions that by 2018, a counterfeit video used in a satirical context will begin a public debate once accepted as real by one or both sides of the political spectrum. In the next year, there will be a 10-fold increase in commercial projects to detect fake news according to the predictions study.
  6. By 2021, more than 50% of enterprises will be spending more per annum on bots and chatbot creations than traditional mobile app developments. Gartner is predicting that by 2020, 55% of all large enterprises will have deployed (used in production) at least one bot or chatbot. Rapid advances in natural-language processing (NLP) make today’s chatbots much better at recognizing the user intent than previous generations. According to Gartner’s predictions study, NLP is used to determine the entry point for the decision tree in a chatbot, but a majority of chatbots still use scripted responses in a decision tree.
  7. By 2021, 40% of IT staff will be versatilists, holding multiple roles, most of which will be business, rather than technology-related. By 2019, IT technical specialist hires will fall by more than 5%. Gartner predicts that 50% of enterprises will formalize IT versatilist profiles and job descriptions. 20% of IT organizations will hire versatilists to scale digital business. IT technical specialist employees will fall to 75% of 2017 levels.
  8. In 2020, AI will become a positive net job motivator, creating 2.3M jobs while eliminating only 1.8M jobs. By 2020, AI-related job creation will cross into positive territory, reaching 2 million net-new jobs in 2025. Global IT services firms will have massive job churn in 2018, adding 100,000 jobs and dropping 80,000. By 2021 Gartner predicts, AI augmentation will generate $2.9T in business value and recover 6.2B hours of worker productivity.
  9. By 2020, IoT technology will be in 95% of electronics for new product designs. Gartner predicts IoT-enabled products with smartphone activation emerging at the beginning of 2019.
  10. Through 2022, half of all security budgets for IoT will go to fault remediation, recalls and safety failures rather than protection. Gartner predicts IoT spending will increase sharply after 2020 following better methods of applying security patterns cross-industry in IoT security architectures, growing at more than 50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over current rates.The total IoT security market for products will reach $840.5M by 2020, and a 24% CAGR for IoT security from 2013 through 2020. Combining IoT security services, safety systems, and physical security will lead to a fast-growing global market. Gartner predicts exponential growth in this area, exceeding more than $5B in global spending by year-end 2020.

Gartner has also made an infographic available of the top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2018, in addition to an insightful article on Smarter with Gartner.  You can find the article here, at Gartner Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2018.

Sources:

Gartner Reveals Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2018 and Beyond

Smarter With Gartner, Gartner Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2018

Top Strategic Predictions for 2018 and Beyond: Pace Yourself, for Sanity’s Sake (client access reqd)

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73% of Executives Are Researching & Launching IoT Projects In 2017

  • Manufacturing-based IoT connections grew 84% between 2016 and 2017, followed by energy & utilities (41%).
  • 73% of executives are either researching or currently launching IoT projects.
  • The IoT platform market is expected to grow 35% per year to $1.16B by 2020.
  • B2B uses can generate nearly 70% of the potential value enabled by IoT.

These and many other fascinating findings are from Verizon’s State of the Market: Internet of Things 2017, Making way for the enterprise (16 pp., PDF, free, opt-in). The Verizon study found that the Internet of Things (IoT) gained significant momentum in 2016, with 2017 IoT investments accelerating. The majority of investments today are in IoT projects that are still in the concept or pilot phase, concentrating on tracking data and sending alerts. While easier to initiate and manage, the majority of pilots aren’t providing the depth of analytics data and insights IoT has the potential to deliver.

Key takeaways from the study include the following:

  • Manufacturing-based IoT connections grew 84% between 2016 and 2017, followed by energy & utilities (41%). Transportation and distribution (40%), smart cities and communities (19%) and healthcare and pharma (11%) are the remaining three industries tracked in the study who had positive growth in the number of IoT connections. The following graphic compares year-over-year growth by industry for the 2016 to 2017 timeframe.

  • Manufacturing is predicted to lead IoT spending in 2017 with $183B invested this year. Verizon’s study predicts that transportation and utilities will have the second and third-largest capital expenses in IoT this year. Insurance, consumer and cross-industry IoT investments including connected vehicles and smart buildings will see the fastest overall growth in 2017.

  • The IoT platform market is expected to grow 35% per year to $1.16B by 2020. From well-established enterprise service providers to startups, the platform market is becoming one of the most competitive within the global IoT ecosystem. The design objective of all IoT platforms is to provide a single environment for enabling API, Web Services and custom integrations that securely support enterprise-wide applications. Please see the post What Makes An Internet Of Things (IoT) Platform Enterprise-Ready? for an overview of the Boston Consulting Group’s recent IoT study, Who Will Win The IoT Platform Wars?
  • Improving the customer experience and excel at customer service by gaining greater insights using IoT leaders enterprises’ investment priorities. 33% of enterprises interviewed prioritize using IoT technologies and the insights it’s capable of providing to excel at customer service. 26% intend to use IoT technologies to improve asset management and increase Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). Consistent with how dominant manufacturing’s investment plans are for IoT this year, production and delivery capabilities are the top deployment priority for 25% of all businesses interviewed.
  • IoT has the potential to revolutionize pharmaceutical supply chains by drastically reducing drug counterfeiting globally. It’s estimated that counterfeit drugs cost the industry between $75B to $200B annually. The human costs of treating those who have been sold counterfeit drugs back to health are incalculable. IoT platforms and systems have the potential to drastically reduce the costs of counterfeiting, both on a personal impact and market standpoint. Drug manufacturers operating in the United States have until November 2017 to mark packages with a product identifier, serial number, lot number and expiration date, plus electronically store and transfer all transaction histories, including shipment information, across their distribution supply chains. Pharmaceutical manufacturers have a high level of urgency to make this happen and stay in compliance with the US Drug Supply Chain Security Act. IoT solutions are flourishing in this industry as a result.
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