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Oct 22

AI infrastructure spending forecasts compared: every major firm raised its 2030 number in 2026

AI infrastructure spending forecasts compared, 2026 revisions: Dell'Oro raised 2030 data center capex from $1.7T to more than $3T, Gartner raised 2030 data center systems 58% to $2.16T, hyperscaler capex consensus rose 52% to $800B, IDC raised 2029 AI infrastructure 42% to $1.08T; Citi's $3.8T 2030 AI capex is 3.1x IDC's $1.21T
Four firms raised the same AI infrastructure forecast between editions, with 2030 figures from Dell’Oro, Gartner and IDC. Click any chart to open it full size. Sources linked below, analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Every major AI infrastructure spending forecast went up in 2026, and the biggest increases landed on 2029 and 2030. Dell’Oro Group nearly doubled its 2030 data center capex outlook in six months. Gartner raised its 2030 data center systems forecast 58% in a single quarter. IDC raised its 2029 AI infrastructure forecast 42% in nine months.

The firms still disagree on how big the build-out gets. For 2030, the published annual figures run from IDC’s $1.21 trillion to Citi’s $3.8 trillion, a 3.1x gap. Most of that gap comes from what each firm counts, not from different views of demand.

This post puts the public numbers from 12 firms side by side. They are Gartner, IDC, Dell’Oro, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Morgan Stanley, McKinsey, Bain, Forrester, JLL, the IEA and BloombergNEF. It shows what each one measures, how far each has moved, what the five largest buyers are actually spending, what the power grid can deliver and what the build-out has to earn back. Where a firm published only a range or a scenario, I say so.
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