Gartner’s $9.76T IT spending forecast: servers will outspend all IT services by 2030
Gartner’s latest IT spending forecast puts worldwide IT spending at $6.39 trillion in 2026 and $9.76 trillion by 2030. Spending grows 13.2% in 2026 in constant currency, or 14.5% in current dollars, and compounds at 11.2% a year from 2025 to 2030.
One subsegment drives that growth more than any other. Server spending grows from $386.5 billion in 2025 to $1.97 trillion in 2030. That $1.58 trillion gain is 38% of the $4.18 trillion the IT market adds over the period. By 2030, the world spends more on servers than on all IT services combined.
Gartner calls building AI compute capacity “the largest infrastructure build-out in history.” This edition makes the build-out bigger. Gartner raised its 2030 total by $816.8 billion from last quarter, and data center systems account for $794.9 billion of that increase.
I built this analysis from Gartner Market Databook, 3Q26 (G00862058), published September 25, 2026. Segment totals, growth rates and revisions come from the report. Subsegment and regional figures come from the 7,896-row dataset Gartner publishes with it, which covers 19 subsegments, nine regions and 47 countries. The shares, dollars added and comparisons are my calculations.
Servers take 38% of new IT spending
Server spending nearly doubles in 2026, up 84.4% in constant currency to $722.4 billion. It grows another 64.7% in 2027 to $1.19 trillion. After that the curve flattens: 26.8% in 2028, 16.0% in 2029 and 9.5% in 2030.
Even with the slowdown, servers reach $1.97 trillion in 2030, $45 billion more than the $1.93 trillion Gartner forecasts for all IT services. In 2025, IT services spending was nearly four times server spending.
Gartner explains why the numbers keep rising. Hyperscalers, sovereign AI initiatives and neocloud providers are all building next-generation data centers. Gartner says servers are increasingly viewed “as revenue-generating assets capable of monetizing AI workloads over many years,” not as ordinary hardware. Backed by hyperscaler capital spending, sovereign AI programs and private capital, AI infrastructure is becoming “both a technology platform and an investable asset class.”
The dataset does not separate AI-optimized servers from other servers, so I report the full server line. Gartner’s commentary leaves little doubt about where the growth comes from.
AI infrastructure and AI software take nearly half
Three subsegments map most directly to AI: servers, AI-optimized IaaS, and AI platforms and models. Together they add $1.96 trillion from 2025 to 2030, or 47% of all new IT spending.
AI-optimized IaaS grows fastest of all 19 subsegments, at a 55.3% CAGR. Spending more than doubles in 2026 and reaches $199.7 billion in 2030. AI platforms and models grow at a 42.8% CAGR, from $39.3 billion to $239.5 billion.
Traditional IaaS adds $287.4 billion at an 18.6% CAGR, so the cloud does not lose ground. Total IaaS reaches $687.7 billion in 2030.
Servers add more than the next five subsegments combined. Infrastructure software, enterprise application software, traditional IaaS, vertical-specific software, and AI platforms and models add $1.52 trillion together. Servers alone add $1.58 trillion.
| Segment | 2025 | 2026 | 2030 | 2026 growth | CAGR 2025-2030 | Added 2025-2030 | Share of new spending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data center systems | $505.5B | $878.5B | $2,157.6B | 71.5% | 32.6% | +$1,652.1B | 39.5% |
| Software | $1,270.9B | $1,464.5B | $2,500.9B | 14.1% | 14.0% | +$1,230.0B | 29.4% |
| IaaS | $222.2B | $291.6B | $687.7B | 29.1% | 24.6% | +$465.5B | 11.1% |
| IT services | $1,491.6B | $1,556.8B | $1,925.6B | 3.4% | 4.6% | +$434.0B | 10.4% |
| Communications services | $1,299.5B | $1,352.5B | $1,519.3B | 2.6% | 2.6% | +$219.8B | 5.3% |
| Devices | $790.3B | $847.2B | $970.1B | 5.9% | 3.8% | +$179.7B | 4.3% |
| Total IT spending | $5,580.0B | $6,391.1B | $9,761.2B | 13.2% | 11.2% | +$4,181.2B | 100% |
Spending in current U.S. dollars. Growth rates and CAGRs in constant currency. Dollars added and shares calculated by Software Strategies Blog from Gartner’s 3Q26 dataset (G00862058).
Data center systems account for 97% of the revision
The size of the revision shows how fast Gartner’s view of AI infrastructure is changing. Compared with the 2Q26 forecast published in June, data center systems rise $56.8 billion in 2026, $299 billion in 2027 and $794.9 billion in 2030. Their 2027 growth rate rises by 26.2 percentage points, to 55.1%.
Almost everything else moves sideways or down. Software is trimmed in every year, by $9.4 billion at most. IT services is cut every year, by $13.1 billion in 2026 and $24.4 billion in 2027, and Gartner slows its 2026 services growth by about half a percentage point. Gartner says enterprises are moving budgets toward AI infrastructure and software, so services revenue arrives more slowly.
Devices fall $20.8 billion in 2026. Gartner attributes that cut to “memflation.” Demand from data center systems has more than doubled memory prices over the past 12 months, and those costs are cascading into storage, servers, networking, PCs and other devices. Higher prices raise spending per unit but cut the number of units sold. Gartner expects the effect to last through 2027 before hardware prices start to normalize.
Four raises in a row for 2026
This is the fourth straight increase in Gartner’s 2026 forecast. In October 2025, Gartner expected 2026 IT spending to reach $6.08 trillion. It raised that to $6.15 trillion in February, $6.31 trillion in April and $6.37 trillion in July. The 3Q26 databook puts 2026 at $6.39 trillion, about $310 billion above the October 2025 forecast.
The September increase for 2026 is small, at $22.6 billion. The big change is in the outer years: 2028 rises $548.5 billion and 2030 rises $816.8 billion. Gartner now expects the AI build-out to run longer, not just faster.
Agentic arbitrage puts $234 billion of app spending at risk
Gartner says software spending is broadly stable this quarter, but “a structural shift is emerging beneath the top-line numbers.” It calls the shift agentic arbitrage, which it says is often described as the “SaaSpocalypse.”
Gartner estimates that about $234 billion of enterprise application spending is exposed to agentic arbitrage through 2030. AI agents increasingly run workflows without using a software interface, which weakens seat-based licensing.
Separately, Gartner expects cross-functional agentic AI to consume $116 billion of application software spending by 2030. Enterprises would shift from buying separate applications to agentic platforms that orchestrate work across CRM, ERP, supply chain management and other systems. Gartner expects the near-term impact to be modest because of adoption and switching constraints. It expects the shift to speed up in the later years, favoring vendors that control orchestration, workflow execution and enterprise context.
The databook’s enterprise application software line reaches $795.4 billion in 2030. Gartner’s standalone application software forecast, which I analyzed earlier this month, puts the market at $812.6 billion, because the two reports use different scopes.
Where the money goes
North America adds $1.99 trillion from 2025 to 2030, or 48% of new IT spending. It also takes $885.1 billion, or 56%, of new server spending. China adds $372.0 billion in servers, or 24%, and Europe adds $161.8 billion.
Business buyers account for 92.5% of the increase. Consumer spending grows $312.9 billion over five years, and phones and connectivity make up $300.2 billion of that.
Two subsegments lose ground. External controller-based storage peaks at $42.3 billion in 2027 and falls to $39.8 billion by 2030. Unified communications declines 1.8% a year and is the only subsegment smaller in 2030 than in 2025.
Gartner also flags risks outside the market. It expects disruption around the Strait of Hormuz to continue into 2027, with energy prices more than 50% above pre-war levels. Gartner expects companies to change sourcing, vendors and regional exposure rather than cut overall IT spending. It also warns that inflation and higher interest rates could return, which would weaken business and consumer confidence.
What technology leaders should do
- Budget for memflation now. Gartner expects memory-driven price increases on servers, storage, PCs and other devices to last through 2027. Lock in refresh pricing early or plan for fewer units per dollar.
- Treat AI infrastructure capacity as a sourcing decision. AI-optimized IaaS grows at a 55.3% CAGR. Compare neocloud, hyperscaler and on-premises capacity on total cost, not list price.
- Reprice seat-based software before renewals. Gartner’s $234 billion exposure estimate means agents will challenge per-user licensing. Ask vendors how pricing changes when agents do the work.
- Expect services partners to change their pitch. IT services grows at 4.6% a year and is revised down every year. Providers will push AI implementation work to grow, so ask for outcome-based contracts.
- Watch the outer years. Most of the $816.8 billion revision lands in 2028 to 2030. Server growth slows to 9.5% by 2030, so server growth peaks in 2026 and 2027.
Frequently asked questions
How much will the world spend on IT in 2026? Gartner forecasts $6.39 trillion, up 13.2% in constant currency and 14.5% in current dollars.
How much will the world spend on IT in 2030? Gartner forecasts $9.76 trillion, an 11.2% CAGR in constant currency from 2025.
Which segment grows fastest? Data center systems, at a 32.6% CAGR. Among subsegments, AI-optimized IaaS grows fastest at 55.3%.
How much of the growth comes from servers? Servers add $1.58 trillion from 2025 to 2030, or 38% of new IT spending.
What is memflation? Gartner’s term for memory price inflation driven by data center demand. Memory prices have more than doubled over the past 12 months, raising prices across hardware categories.
What is agentic arbitrage? Gartner’s term for AI agents running workflows without software user interfaces, which reduces reliance on seat-based licensing. Gartner estimates $234 billion of enterprise application spending is exposed through 2030.
How I built this analysis
Segment totals, growth rates, revisions and quotes come from Gartner Market Databook, 3Q26 (G00862058). Subsegment, regional and customer-type figures come from the dataset Gartner publishes with the report. I calculated constant-currency CAGRs from 2025 to 2030, dollars added from 2025 to 2030, and shares of new spending. Earlier 2026 forecast figures come from Gartner’s October 2025, February 2026, April 2026 and July 2026 press releases. Charts are my own work from that data.
Earlier analysis in this series:
- Gartner’s $247.5B security forecast makes post-quantum firewall refreshes the only upgrade through 2030
- Gartner’s $812.6B app software forecast sends 38% of new spending to CRM as agentic AI targets $116B of legacy apps
- Gartner’s $953B IoT forecast puts 81% of spending in endpoints and the fastest growth in software
- Gartner’s $239B AI forecast: Agentic workflows take half of GenAI model revenue
- Gartner’s $5.95 trillion AI forecast puts the chatbot era on a 2027 deadline
This post is my personal analysis of Gartner’s research and does not represent my employer.
Sources
- Gartner, Gartner Market Databook, 3Q26, John Lovelock, Linglan Wang and others, 25 September 2026, G00862058, including the accompanying dataset.
- Gartner press release, Gartner Forecasts Worldwide IT Spending to Grow 13.5% in 2026, Totaling $6.31 Trillion, 22 April 2026.
- Gartner press release, Gartner Forecasts Worldwide IT Spending to Grow 14.2% in 2026, Totaling $6.37 Trillion, 27 July 2026, via TelecomTV.
- Gartner press release, Gartner Forecasts Worldwide IT Spending to Grow 10.8% in 2026, Totaling $6.15 Trillion, 3 February 2026, via I-Connect007.
- Gartner press release, Gartner Forecasts Worldwide IT Spending to Grow 9.8% in 2026, Exceeding $6 Trillion for the First Time, 22 October 2025, via Barchart.
