Gartner’s $247.5B security forecast makes post-quantum firewall refreshes the only upgrade through 2030
The 3Q26 Gartner information security forecast raised exactly one growth rate.
Gartner now projects firewall equipment spending to grow 13.4% in 2027 in constant currency, up from the 7.8% in its June forecast. Network security equipment overall rises to 12.8% from 8.7%. Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is the cause. Many installed firewalls can’t run the new algorithms, which forces early replacement.
Every other business category in the 41-category forecast kept the constant-currency outlook it had 91 days earlier.
Published September 24, the forecast puts worldwide end-user spending at $247.5 billion in 2026, up 13.6% in current U.S. dollars and 12.7% in constant currency.
Spending reaches $372.8 billion by 2030. Gartner frames that as $373 billion and a 10.8% compound annual growth rate in constant currency from 2025 through 2030.
I built this analysis from Gartner’s 3Q26 report (G00862059), the full detailed dataset of 13,489 rows covering 47 countries, 9 regions, 41 categories and 7 years, and a line-by-line comparison against the 2Q26 file Gartner released in June (G00855892).
For the 2Q26 update that first counted securing AI inside the forecast, see Gartner’s $248.2B security forecast makes securing AI the only segment accelerating through 2030.
Each bar in the hero chart stacks four parts of Gartner’s forecast in current U.S. dollars. Navy is business security software, mid-blue is security services, sky blue is network security and light blue is consumer security software. Bold figures above the bars give each year’s total, with Gartner’s constant-currency growth rate in italics.
Six tiles underneath carry the 2026 and 2030 totals, the $125.4 billion in new spending between 2026 and 2030, the 2030 firewall revision in constant currency, the change in Gartner’s 2027 firewall growth forecast and the securing AI trajectory.
Both the 56% software share and the $80.5 billion software tile include consumer security software.
Read more
