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Posts tagged ‘AI Spending’

Sep 21

Gartner’s $239B AI forecast: Agentic workflows take half of GenAI model revenue

Detailed 2024–2030 GenAI revenue chart with annual spending, agentic shares and dollar allocations; intermediate agentic shares are explicitly labeled SSB scenarios.
Gartner publishes the agentic share of GenAI model revenue for 2025 (5%) and 2030 (50%). The 2024 and 2026 to 2029 bars are my estimates and are labeled SSB. By 2030, agentic revenue reaches about $69.6 billion of $139.2 billion. Source: Gartner, G00855897 and G00861842. Chart and analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Agentic workflows will drive 50% of generative AI model revenue by 2030, up from 5% in 2025. Gartner published that projection on September 17, 2026, in its forecast analysis of the generative AI models market (G00861842). The number changes how every enterprise buyer should read the firm’s $239 billion AI platforms and models forecast.

Multistep reasoning, tool integration, and repeated validation steps multiply the inference events behind every completed business process. Gartner puts the impact at $38 billion in additional spending by 2030 from scaling agentic workflows alone.

Falling inference prices won’t offset it. Cheaper units unlock deeper automation, and deeper automation drives up token volume per task faster than prices fall. Gartner calls this a structural tailwind for GenAI model spending.

That consumption flywheel sits inside a market growing from $39 billion in 2025 to $239 billion by 2030 at a 42.8% compound rate, per Gartner’s June 25 forecast (G00855897). I built this analysis from both Gartner reports and Gartner’s country-level dataset, which covers 1,316 rows across 9 regions and 7 years. For the agentic spending crossover that sets up this post, see Gartner’s $5.95 trillion AI forecast puts the chatbot era on a 2027 deadline (August 5, 2026).

$239 Billion by 2030 and Where It Breaks Down

Dollar figures are current U.S. dollars. Gartner reports growth in constant currency, so its rates won’t always match growth calculated from the dollar totals. The regional CAGRs here are my calculations from Gartner’s dollar data.

Gartner splits the market into two halves. AI platforms grow from $26.3 billion in 2025 to $100 billion by 2030, a 30.0% CAGR. GenAI models grow from $13 billion to $139.2 billion, a 59.9% CAGR.

GenAI models overtake AI platforms in 2027. By 2030, models command 58% of total spending.Four-segment annual AI market breakdown from 2024 to 2030, with exact annual levels, constant-currency growth, dollar additions, and GenAI market share.

Source: Gartner, G00855897. Chart and analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.
  • Total market 2026. $64.3 billion, up 60.7% year over year, adding $25 billion in net new spending.
  • AI platforms 2026. $36 billion, growing 34.7%. Data science and ML platforms account for $26.4 billion and app development platforms for $9.5 billion.
  • GenAI models 2026. $28.3 billion, growing 113.5%. Foundation models reach $23.4 billion and DSLMs and specialized models $4.9 billion.
  • 2030 total. $239.2 billion. GenAI models reach $139.2 billion and AI platforms $100 billion.

Where platform and model spending goes

Gartner maps all four segments by 2030 market size and CAGR. Foundation GenAI models reach $105.4 billion at a 55.2% CAGR. DSLMs reach $33.9 billion at 83.4%, the fastest growth rate in the forecast.

AI Platforms and Models Opportunities.
Source: Gartner, AI Platforms and Models Opportunities, G00855897 (June 2026). Commentary by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Data science and ML platforms carry roughly three times the spending of app development platforms. The ratio rises from about 2.8 to 1 in 2025 to 3.3 to 1 in 2030.

All annual platform subsegment spending, ratios, market shares, and constant-currency growth rates from 2024 to 2030.
Source: Gartner, G00855897. Chart and analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

DSLMs Are the Fastest-Growing Segment in This Forecast

Domain-specific language models and specialized GenAI models grow at an 83.4% CAGR from 2025 to 2030. That outpaces foundation models at 55.2% and AI platforms at 30.0%. The segment goes from $1.6 billion in 2025 to $33.9 billion by 2030.

GenAI Models Spending Segmented Into Foundation Models, and DSLMs and Specialized Models, 2024–2030.
Source: Gartner, GenAI Models Spending Segmented, G00861842 (September 2026). Commentary by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

The share shift tells the structural story. DSLMs were 5.5% of GenAI model spending in 2024. By 2030 they will command 24.3%.

Detailed annual foundation-model and DSLM spending, segment shares, growth rates, and DSLM dollar additions for 2024–2030.
Source: Gartner, G00855897 and G00861842. Chart and analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Slower percentage growth, larger dollar additions

Gartner’s growth rates for DSLMs decelerate from 452.0% in 2025 to 34.5% in 2030. The dollar additions do the opposite. Each year adds more net new spending than the last, climbing from $1.3 billion to $8.6 billion.

Six annual DSLM growth rates in both constant currency and current dollars, annual dollar additions, and a complete 2024–2030 table.
Source: Gartner, G00855897 and G00861842. Chart and analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

The 2Q26 revisions confirm the direction. Gartner raised its 2030 DSLM forecast by $14.3 billion and cut its 2030 foundation model forecast by $32.1 billion. The pattern holds in every year. DSLM revisions climb from $189 million for 2025 to $1.3 billion for 2026 to $14.3 billion for 2030. Foundation model revisions run negative every year, from $2.7 billion for 2025 to $32.1 billion for 2030.

All 2025–2030 forecast revisions for foundation models, DSLMs, and combined GenAI, with reconstructed first-quarter and second-quarter levels.
Source: Gartner, G00855897, Table 2. Chart and analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Agentic AI Rewrites Inference Economics

Gartner’s September analysis names agentic workflows as the single largest driver of GenAI model spending growth through 2030. The mechanism runs on volume, not price.

Agentic workflows consume more tokens per completed task than conversational AI. Each autonomous process generates multiple inference events as task complexity rises, demanding advanced reasoning, larger context windows, and repeated validation. I tracked the agentic spending crossover in Gartner forecasts agentic AI will overtake chatbot spending by 2027 (February 16, 2026). The September data shows the trajectory accelerating.

Forecast Driver Impact on GenAI Model Spending.
Source: Gartner, Forecast Driver Impact on GenAI Model Spending, G00861842 (September 2026). Commentary by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Gartner identifies three forces operating at once. Agentic workflows add $38 billion. Multimodal expansion adds $32 billion. Open-weight substitution and inference internalization remove $25 billion. The net effect grows the revenue pool while shifting where the money lands.

  • Agentic share of GenAI revenue. 5% in 2025, growing to 50% by 2030.
  • Spending impact. $38 billion in additional spending by 2030 from scaling agentic workflows.
  • Token economics. Consumption shifts from model calls per user interaction to model calls per completed business process.
  • Production commitments. 75% of foundation model monetization locked into multiyear commitments by 2030, up from 20% in 2025.

Gartner Forecasts Frontier Revenue Will Concentrate by 2030

Gartner expects two or three suppliers to dominate the GenAI LLM marketplace in North America and Asia/Pacific by 2030. It forecasts the top two vendors will hold 85% of the foundation model revenue pool in those regions. The firm’s 2025 market share data shows Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google together accounted for 63% of enterprise spending.

The concentration thesis goes beyond model quality. Sustained investment in model development, inference capacity, reliability, security, integration, and global distribution creates a cost structure that favors vendors able to keep reinvesting at scale.

Gartner places GenAI in the Trough of Disillusionment in 2026. In that phase, enterprises lean toward frontier models delivered through their incumbent SaaS providers. That preference narrows the field for standalone frontier model companies and sets up a winner-take-all race to become the model provider software vendors choose. For how every credible forecast sizes this market, see my roundup of agentic AI forecasts and market estimates, 2026.

North America Commands 54% of the Market Through 2030

All nine regional forecasts for 2024–2030 with annual dollar amounts, 2030 shares, and current-dollar versus constant-currency CAGRs.
Gartner’s China region includes China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Source: Gartner country-level dataset, G00855897. Chart and analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

North America holds near 54% of worldwide spending from 2024 through 2030. Spending rises from $13.2 billion in 2024 to $130 billion in 2030, a 43.4% CAGR from a 2025 base of $21.5 billion.

Detailed 2024–2030 spending trajectories for the U.S., Europe, and Gartner’s China region, with annual growth, world shares, and both CAGR bases.
Source: Gartner, G00855897. Chart and analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

The United States alone reaches $33.1 billion in 2026 and $123 billion by 2030. Gartner’s China region, which includes Hong Kong and Taiwan, grows fastest of the three at a 58.3% CAGR, from $4.1 billion in 2025 to $40.9 billion in 2030. Europe grows at 40.8% to $45.1 billion, with the United Kingdom at $4.8 billion in 2026, France at $2.2 billion, and Germany at $1.9 billion.

  • North America 2030. $130 billion (54.4% share), 43.4% CAGR (2025 to 2030).
  • Europe 2030. $45.1 billion (18.8% share), 40.8% CAGR (2025 to 2030).
  • China region 2030. $40.9 billion (17.1% share), 58.3% CAGR (2025 to 2030).

Open-Weight Models Are Eroding the Paid Revenue Pool

Gartner projects 30% of routine, high-volume enterprise GenAI inference will run on open or enterprise-controlled models by 2030, up from 5% in 2025. That substitution takes $25 billion out of the GenAI model revenue pool by 2030.

Production traffic already shows the split. Vercel’s AI Gateway routes tens of trillions of tokens a month between production applications and AI labs. In August, open-weight models processed 56% of gateway tokens but accounted for 14% of estimated spending, according to Vercel’s September production index. In December 2025, open-weight token share was 7%.

Vercel monthly open-weight shares in December, April, and August; August token and spending split; calculated spend-per-token indices.
Source: Vercel AI Gateway Production Index, September 2026. Chart and analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

The mix is moving fast. In a post Chamath Palihapitiya amplified on September 19, Guillermo Rauch reported a snapshot of 78.4% open-weight and 21.6% closed-weight token volume.

Tokens versus spending on a single day

Vercel’s September 18 daily export shows DeepSeek V4.1 Flash at 59.3% of all token volume. GLM 5.3 Flash took 7.5%, DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 took 2.7%, and Kimi K3 took 2.5%.

Spending looks different. Anthropic accounted for 64% of estimated gateway spend in August. In July, Anthropic took 65.1% of spend on 30% of token volume, and its average price per token ran 4.4 times the average across every other lab.

The September 18 export makes the gap concrete. Claude Opus 4.8 accounted for 13.7% of estimated spend, Claude Opus 5 for 9.0%, Claude Sonnet 5 for 5.5%, and Claude Sonnet 4.6 for 4.3%. DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, with 59.3% of tokens, accounted for 5.1% of spend.

Complete daily Vercel rankings with ten named models plus Other for both token volume and spending, and four-model spending-per-token comparisons.
Source: Vercel AI Gateway dated export, CC BY 4.0. Chart and analysis by softwarestrategiesblog.com.

Vercel’s data covers traffic routed through its gateway, not the whole market. Its spend figures are estimates based on list prices. It shows the same pattern Gartner forecasts but doesn’t prove Gartner’s $25 billion number.

For buyers, the lesson is to budget for workload mix, not token volume alone. The models moving the most tokens aren’t the ones capturing the most spend. Route suitable workloads to lower-cost models and save premium models for work that justifies the price.

Palihapitiya went further on September 19, predicting the top three models would be open source within 12 months. He named Nebius, Iren, Baseten, Together, and Fireworks as the clouds he expects to benefit. That’s his forecast, not something the usage data establishes.

What This Means for Enterprise Buyers

Gartner reports AI budgets are getting a harder look, and money is moving to providers that can prove their value on cost, speed, and reliability. Here are five takeaways for leaders making AI platform and model decisions over the next 12 months. For how security spending fits this picture, see Gartner’s $248.9B security forecast makes securing AI the only segment accelerating through 2030 (July 6, 2026).

  1. Build for model routing, not model loyalty. The market is fragmenting by workload. Enterprises locked into a single provider risk overpaying for tasks a smaller, specialized model handles at the required quality. The DSLM forecast makes the case for evaluating specialized models before assuming every task needs a frontier model.
  2. Budget for agentic inference volumes. Agentic workflows consume far more tokens per completed task than conversational AI. A budget sized for chatbot-level consumption won’t survive production agentic workloads.
  3. Evaluate open-weight alternatives for routine workloads. Gartner expects 30% of high-volume enterprise inference to shift to open or enterprise-controlled models by 2030. The Vercel data shows that shift underway. Start identifying which production workloads can move now.
  4. Watch the consolidation timeline. If frontier revenue concentrates in North America and Asia/Pacific as Gartner forecasts, assess provider resilience and migration options now.
  5. Demand platform-level governance and cost attribution. The AI platform market reaches $100 billion by 2030 because enterprises need orchestration, evaluation, cost visibility, and policy enforcement. For more on the governance gap, see Gartner’s $244.2B security forecast shows enterprises spend 17x more on AI tools than securing AI itself (March 24, 2026).

Bottom line

Gartner’s forecast puts a number on the tension running through every enterprise AI budget. The market nearly quadruples from $64 billion in 2026 to $239 billion by 2030. Agentic workflows drive half of GenAI model revenue by the end of that window.

Open-weight models absorb a growing share of token volume while frontier providers keep the lion’s share of spend. The $38 billion agentic addition and the $25 billion revenue pool reduction pull the market in two directions at once.

Enterprises that build for model routing, budget for agentic consumption, and negotiate multiyear commitments with the surviving frontier providers will be better positioned in 2030. Enterprises that treat AI spending as a single-vendor procurement decision will not.

Related on Software Strategies Blog

This post is my personal analysis of Gartner’s AI platforms, models, and generative AI research and does not represent my employer.

Sources

Aug 5

Gartner’s $5.95 trillion AI forecast puts the chatbot era on a 2027 deadline

Spending on the chatbots and assistants embedded in enterprise software peaks at $272.6 billion in 2027 and then shrinks every year through 2030. Gartner buried that projection inside the 2Q26 update of its worldwide AI spending forecast, published July 24, and it matters more than the headline total. By 2030, embedded chatbot spending falls back to $205.8 billion, a hair above its 2025 starting point.

Embedded agenticAI takes the money instead, growing from $88.2 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2030, an 11.4x expansion inside a single software category.

None of that slows the topline. Worldwide AI spending reaches $2.67 trillion in 2026, up 49.5% from 2025, on its way to $5.95 trillion by 2030. The figure Gartner published in May was $2.59 trillion for this year. Ninety days later, the client-facing number runs $74.8 billion higher, and the firm added $496.8 billion to its comparable 2025 through 2030 outlook in a single quarter.

Four tables below show where the money lands, which segments stall, and what Gartner changed its mind about between April and July.

Where $5.95 trillion lands

Infrastructure stays the biggest line through 2030 at $2.79 trillion, even as its share of total spending slides from 55% in 2025 to 46.9% at the end of the window. AI-optimized servers alone reach $981.7 billion by 2030, a 3.4x jump from 2025, and AI processing semiconductors add another $656.4 billion. O

One caution before quoting the total anywhere. Gartner’s note flags the forecast as a view across the whole AI value chain, so the chip and the server it ships inside both get counted. Read $5.95 trillion as the size of the AI economy, not as net end-user budgets.

Devices carry more of the infrastructure number than most readers expect. Business and consumer AI devices combine for $904.4 billion in 2030, and $647.4 billion of that is consumer hardware, the AI PCs and phones landing in shopping carts rather than data centers.

Growth flattens fast after next year. Total spending rises 49% in 2026 and 36% in 2027, then steps down to 21%, 18% and 15% through 2030, while infrastructure decelerates from 51% growth this year to 9% at the end of the forecast.

Of the $883.8 billion in net-new AI spending arriving in 2026, infrastructure absorbs $502.5 billion, or 57 cents of every new dollar. The shape of the curve says the buildout peaks now and software inherits the growth.

Farther down the board, AI cybersecurity at $220.9 billion and AI agents and assistants at $219.9 billion finish 2030 within $1 billion of each other. Gartner created the agents category only this quarter.

Agentic AI crosses $1 trillion inside enterprise software

Gartner rebuilt its segmentation this quarter, splitting cross-functional and consumer agents out of AI software and adding consumer agents to the forecast for the first time. The new structure exposes a replacement cycle the old rollup hid. Inside enterprise software, agentic AI overtakes chatbots in 2027, the same year chatbot spending tops out, and from that peak to 2030 the embedded chatbot line surrenders $66.8 billion.

Cross-functional agents, the ones that work across software from multiple vendors, start from a base of zero. Gartner books $347 million for cross-functional agentic AI in 2026 and $78.1 billion in 2030, a number it raised this quarter on the thesis that these agents begin cannibalizing traditional SaaS by decade’s end. The ceiling matters as much as the curve. Against $1.21 trillion in total 2030 AI software spending, $78.1 billion says the incumbents hold the decade, because data access, integration complexity and execution reliability hold the category back from serious SaaS competition until 2030, in Gartner’s read.

The buy-versus-build verdict is just as lopsided. Agent builder platforms, the tooling for constructing your own agents, reach only $12.6 billion by 2030, so embedded agentic AI outspends them nearly 80 to 1. The first production agent most companies run will ship inside software they already own. Gartner describes exactly that race, with vendors across software categories embedding agentic AI to defend their installed bases against cross-functional challengers.

Consumer agents barely register yet in dollar terms. Gartner carries $26.9 million for consumer agentic AI in 2026, then $17.7 billion in 2027 as paid consumer agents arrive at scale, building to $51.8 billion by 2030. Adding consumer agents and assistants lifted Gartner’s 2030 total by $133 billion. For how these agent numbers stack against other analyst estimates, see my roundup of agentic AI forecasts and market estimates, 2026.

AI security expands 8.5x and splits in two

AI cybersecurity grows from $25.9 billion in 2025 to $220.9 billion in 2030, an 8.5x expansion at a 53.5% compound rate. Spending in the category grew 140% in 2025, and Gartner models another 98% jump this year. AI cybersecurity and AI data were also the only two markets left completely untouched between the 1Q26 and 2Q26 forecasts, which makes security the steadiest conviction in the entire model. For the standalone security spending outlook, see my breakdown of Gartner’s 2Q26 information security forecast.

Two markets move at different speeds inside the category. AI-amplified security, meaning AI capability inside security tooling, carries the volume and reaches $204.5 billion by 2030. Securing AI, the discipline of protecting AI systems themselves, runs smaller and faster, from $1.5 billion in 2025 to $16.4 billion in 2030 at a 60.4% compound rate.

Set the security numbers against the agent forecast and an exposure gap opens. The 2030 outlook has enterprises running $1.08 trillion of embedded and cross-functional agentic software while spending $16.4 billion to secure AI systems, roughly $66 of agentic software for every $1 of securing-AI budget. AI observability and governance tooling adds just $3.9 billion more. A software wave that large riding on a security ratio that thin is the budget argument CISOs should be starting now.

The fastest growth goes to whatever cuts the bill

Rank every segment by compound growth and one pattern jumps out, because the fastest-growing lines are the ones that make AI cheaper. Synthetic data generation leads the entire forecast at a 142.5% compound rate, expanding 84x from $146 million in 2025 to $12.2 billion in 2030. AI-ready datasets, the licensed real-data alternative, peak at $583 million in 2029 and then decline, leaving synthetic data outselling licensed data 22 to 1 by 2030. Gartner is forecasting the substitution of purchased data itself.

Domain-specific language models tell the same cost story at larger scale. DSLMs and specialized models grow 210% in 2026 and compound at 84.5% through 2030, rising from 12.2% of all model spend to 24.3%. Cost pressure also explains the strangest revision in the update. Gartner cut $57.8 billion in cumulative dollars from its generative AI model forecast while raising the segment’s 2026 growth rate from 110% to 117%, which nets out to more deployments running on cheaper models and smaller checks. Arunasree Cheparthi, a senior principal research analyst at Gartner and one of the forecast’s authors, said in the firm’s July 20 platforms and models announcement that spending “is shifting toward providers who can demonstrate clear value.”

What Gartner changed in 90 days

Between the April forecast and this one, Gartner added $500.8 billion to AI infrastructure across the 2025 through 2030 window, the largest revision in the update, and did it while flagging memory-related price increases. The note calls infrastructure demand inelastic to that pricing pressure, because hyperscalers keep buying AI-optimized servers on the conviction that model capabilities improve through 2030.

Software took the other side of the trade. AI software gained $191.9 billion and application development platforms picked up $10.7 billion. Gartner lifted the 2026 app-dev growth rate from 28% to 39% as enterprises build custom AI applications and demand usage tracking to prove the spend. The cuts land on everything that resembles consulting or plumbing. AI services lost $80.7 billion across the window, with every single year revised down, and platforms for data science and machine learning lost $68.2 billion, including an 8% cut to 2027 alone.

The services cut hides a structural shift rather than a retreat. Gartner still sizes AI services at $1.25 trillion in 2030, but the growth belongs to indirect services, which compound at 34.5% and pass direct, consulting-led engagements in 2028. Direct AI services compound at 15.7%, less than half the indirect rate. Buyers are routing transformation budgets through software and cloud purchases instead of billable hours.

Three dates to plan against

2027 is the year chatbot spending tops out and agentic AI takes over inside enterprise software, which gives any vendor still selling assistant-branded features through the end of next year to ride what growth remains. By 2028, indirect services pass consulting-led engagements and infrastructure growth drops to 15%, so the buildout stops flattering everyone’s numbers. And 2030 arrives with $1.08 trillion of agentic software guarded by $16.4 billion of securing-AI spend. The first two dates decide where the money goes, and the third decides what happens when it arrives unprotected.

This post is my personal reflection on Gartner’s AI spending research from an industry analyst perspective. It does not represent my employer.

Source: Gartner, Forecast: AI Spending, Worldwide, 2025-2030, 2Q26, Kay Arnott, Jon Erensen, Amarendra, Adrian O’Connell, Arunasree Cheparthi, Naresh Singh, Peter Middleton, Hardeep Singh, Shailendra Upadhyay, Rishi Padhi, 24 July 2026, G00855896.

Jan 22

1 Comment

Gartner 4Q25: $4.71T AI market proves agentic AI and data readiness are the only race that matters

Only 43% of organizations say their data is ready for AI. Meanwhile, AI Data spending is compounding at 155% annually. That’s six times faster than the infrastructure buildouts grabbing headlines. That disconnect defines the enterprise AI landscape in 2025.

Gartner’s 4Q25 AI Spending Forecast (December 17, 2025) projects $4.71 trillion by 2029. But I’ve been digging through the segment data, and the story isn’t the topline number. Four subsegments within Gartner’s AI Data market are growing between 136% and 178% CAGR. AI Infrastructure? Just 29.25%. The money is following the bottlenecks.

“Nearly everything today, from the way we work to how we make decisions, is directly or indirectly influenced by AI,” says Carlie Idoine, VP Analyst at Gartner. “But it doesn’t deliver value on its own. AI needs to be tightly aligned with data, analytics, and governance to enable intelligent, adaptive decisions and actions across the organization.”

McKinsey’s 2025 State of AI survey (1,993 participants, 105 countries) found 88% of organizations now use AI in at least one business function. But two-thirds remain stuck in pilot mode. Just 6% qualify as “AI high performers,” meaning organizations where more than 5% of EBIT comes from AI. The gap between adoption and value creation is where the real spending story unfolds.

Where the bottlenecks are breaking

Every high-growth segment in the forecast eliminates a constraint that stalls production of AI.

Synthetic data generation addresses the labeled data shortage. You can’t train models without it, and real world data comes with privacy constraints, bias problems, and collection costs that don’t scale. Data governance enforces quality standards because ungoverned data produces ungoverned outputs. Hallucinations, compliance violations, and bias incidents trace directly back to data quality failures. Data integration software connects fragmented sources. Most enterprise data sits across dozens of systems that don’t communicate.

“With AI investment remaining strong this year, a sharper emphasis is being placed on using AI for operational scalability and real-time intelligence,” says Haritha Khandabattu, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner. This has led to a gradual pivot from generative AI as a central focus toward the foundational enablers that support sustainable AI delivery, such as AI-ready data and AI agents. Infrastructure enables these capabilities. Data readiness and agentic AI determine whether they generate returns.

The $14.6 billion data readiness bet

Gartner tracks AI Data as a unified market with four subsegments. The aggregate grows from $134.35 million in 2024 to $14.59 billion by 2029. That’s 109x, making it the fastest-growing major category in the forecast.

Synthetic Data Generation: 178.29% CAGR, $40.71M to $6.80B. The fastest-growing subsegment adds $6.76 billion in new spending by 2029. A 167x increase from a small 2024 base. Gartner predicts 60% of data and analytics leaders will encounter failures in managing synthetic data by 2027, which explains why governance spending is accelerating in parallel.

AI Data Governance: 163.75% CAGR, $14.82M to $1.89B. Starting from just $14.82 million in 2024, this subsegment grows 128x by 2029. Legal and compliance teams won’t accept the alternative. When AI systems produce ungoverned outputs, the liability exposure is unacceptable.

AI Data Integration Software: 137.13% CAGR, $71.73M to $5.38B. The largest AI Data subsegment by 2029. Connects fragmented data sources, delivering context that transforms generic models into systems that understand specific business operations.

AI Ready Datasets: 136.16% CAGR, $7.09M to $520.45M. These are prepackaged, curated datasets structured for AI and ML workflows. Think labeled image libraries for computer vision, cleaned financial datasets for forecasting, and domain-specific corpora for fine-tuning LLMs. Organizations buy them to skip the months of data collection, cleaning, and annotation that delay projects. Smallest subsegment by revenue, but 73x growth signals enterprises are willing to pay for time to production shortcuts.

The 2027 crossover: When agents overtake chatbots

Agentic AI: 118.73% CAGR, $15.04B to $752.73B. This is the single most dramatic dollar growth in the forecast. Agentic AI expands from $15 billion to $753 billion by 2029. That’s 50x. Nothing else comes close.

Gartner predicts the crossover will happen in 2027. Chatbots peak at $264.75 billion that year, while Agentic AI surges to $371.40 billion. By 2029, Agentic AI is 3.3x larger ($752.73B vs. $228.50B).

McKinsey’s data reinforces the trajectory: 62% of organizations are experimenting with AI agents, 23% report scaling them in at least one function. But scaling remains limited. Most organizations deploying agents are only doing so in one or two functions, primarily IT service desk and knowledge management.

Organizations building chatbot-only strategies should note that the category dominating 2025 and 2026 is projected to decline after 2027.

The Security Tax on Agentic AI

AI Cybersecurity: 73.90% CAGR, $10.82B to $172.01B. AI agents introduce attack surfaces that traditional security architectures weren’t built for. Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Application Security, 2025 (July 2025) projects that through 2029, over 50% of successful attacks against AI agents will exploit access control issues via direct or indirect prompt injection. The 16x growth in AI Cybersecurity spending reflects enterprises grappling with that exposure.

Production AI deployment requires security architectures designed for agentic systems. That’s a capability most organizations don’t have yet.

Infrastructure: Dominant but decelerating

AI Infrastructure remains the largest absolute spending category: $624.76 billion in 2024, growing to $2.25 trillion by 2029. McKinsey (August 2025) projects hyperscalers alone will spend $300 billion in capex over 2025. Their April 2025 analysis projects $5.2 trillion in data center investment by 2030.

But at 29.25% CAGR, infrastructure grows slower than every other major AI market except Services (26.93%). Market share drops from 54.6% of total AI spending in 2024 to 47.8% by 2029. The buildout is real. Differentiation happens elsewhere.

The 6% problem

Only 6% of organizations qualify as AI high performers despite 88% adoption. McKinsey’s analysis shows high performers are 3x more likely to redesign workflows around AI rather than layering it onto existing processes. They’re also 3x more likely to have committed executive leadership driving AI as a strategic priority.

The 155% CAGR for AI Data reflects organizations investing to close that gap. The 2027 chatbot-to-agent crossover marks the inflection point when autonomous capabilities surpass conversational interfaces in market size.

Gareth Herschel, VP Analyst at Gartner, frames the pressure: “D&A is going from the domain of the few to ubiquity. At the same time, D&A leaders are under pressure not to do more with less, but to do a lot more with a lot more, and that can be even more challenging because the stakes are being raised.”

Where the value accrues

Organizations positioned to capture value from this transformation may not be the ones building the biggest data centers. The Gartner data suggests they’re investing in capabilities that make AI systems work at enterprise scale: data readiness, governance, integration, and security.

AI Data Market (aggregate): 155% CAGR, $134M to $14.6B (109x)

  • Synthetic Data Generation: 178% CAGR, $41M to $6.8B (167x)
  • AI Data Governance: 164% CAGR, $15M to $1.9B (128x)
  • AI Data Integration: 137% CAGR, $72M to $5.4B (75x)
  • AI Ready Datasets: 136% CAGR, $7M to $520M (73x)

Other High-Growth Segments:

  • Agentic AI: 119% CAGR, $15B to $753B (50x)
  • AI Cybersecurity: 74% CAGR, $11B to $172B (16x)
  • AI Infrastructure: 29% CAGR, $625B to $2.25T (4x)

Gartner’s 4Q25 data points to a directional shift: AI spending is moving from infrastructure-first to data and capabilities-first architectures. The organizations treating data readiness as an afterthought are the ones most likely to stay stuck in the 94% that never make it past pilot.

Dec 22

Gartner Projects $4.7 Trillion AI Market by 2029 as Security and Data Drive Growth

Data readiness and security are driving AI’s $4.7 trillion run

Gartner Projects $4.7 Trillion AI Market by 2029 as Security and Data Drive Growth

Gartner’s most comprehensive AI spending forecast reveals the fundamental growth catalysts. AI-ready data predicted to deliver a 155% CAGR. Cybersecurity at 74%. Agentic capabilities crossing 50% of software spend by 2028.

Infrastructure gets the headlines. Hyperscalers are spending over $300 billion on data centers in 2025. McKinsey projects $5.2 trillion in data center investment by 2030. NVIDIA Blackwell deployments are driving 76% growth in accelerated server spending.

Gartner’s newly released Forecast Analysis: AI Spending, 4Q25 (December 17, 2025) tells a different story about where the acceleration is happening. Global AI spending reaches $1.8 trillion in 2025 and $4.7 trillion by 2029 at 33% CAGR. The growth catalysts:

  • AI Data. 155.4% CAGR. Spending increases 7x as enterprises recognize AI-ready data is non-negotiable for scaling.
  • AI Cybersecurity. 73.9% CAGR. From $26 billion to $172 billion. Over 50% of successful AI agent attacks will exploit prompt injection through 2029.
  • AI Models. 67.7% CAGR. Reasoning models underpin 70%+ of agentic AI applications by 2029.
  • AI Software. 47.0% CAGR. Agentic capabilities cross 50% of application software spend by the end of 2028. Non-agentic spending declines starting in 2027.

Infrastructure dominates absolute spending ($965 billion in 2025, growing to $2.25 trillion by 2029). At 29.2% CAGR, it’s the slower-growth segment. The acceleration is in data, security, and agentic capabilities.

The infrastructure buildout in context

The hyperscalers are building at a pace that strains global power grids. Dell’Oro Group’s Q2 2025 analysis shows worldwide data center capex up 43% year-over-year, with accelerated server spending surging 76% on NVIDIA Blackwell deployments. Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are collectively spending over $300 billion on data center infrastructure in 2025. CreditSights estimates aggregate hyperscaler capex reaches $602 billion in 2026, with approximately 75% earmarked for AI.

Gartner’s forecast aligns with infrastructure volume. AI-optimized server spending jumps 49% in 2026, representing 17% of total AI spending. GPUs account for over 90% of AI-optimized server spending on training throughout the forecast period. Infrastructure is table stakes. The differentiation is elsewhere.

Gartner’s bubble chart mapping 2026 growth rate (X-axis) against 2024-2029 CAGR (Y-axis), with bubble size representing 2025 spending. AI Data sits alone in the upper right quadrant. AI Cybersecurity and AI Models cluster at 70%+ CAGR. AI Infrastructure anchors the center as the dominant bubble. Source: Gartner Forecast Analysis: AI Spending, 4Q25, December 2025.

Gartner’s AI spending forecast by market, 2024-2029

The maturity gap

McKinsey’s 2025 State of AI survey explains why growth rates matter more than absolute spending for most organizations. 88% of organizations now use AI in at least one business function, up from 78% a year ago. Only 6% qualify as “AI high performers”, capturing meaningful enterprise-wide financial impact. Only 1% describe themselves as “mature” in AI deployment. Gartner’s CFO survey found just 11% of finance leaders from organizations implementing AI reported seeing actual financial returns.

The bottleneck is rarely compute. Gartner identifies three categories of readiness: infrastructure, data, and human. For every 100 days of AI implementation, 25 or more days may be consumed solely by change management and workforce resistance. Sharing work tasks with an AI agent, trusting results, and managing handoffs. That’s a fundamental shift in how employees work.

What the growth rates signal

AI cybersecurity’s 73.9% CAGR reflects a threat model shift. Security teams are spending because AI agents introduce attack surfaces that traditional security architectures weren’t designed to address. Gartner projects that over 50% of successful attacks against AI agents will exploit access control issues via prompt injection through 2029. By 2028, over 75% of enterprises will use AI-amplified cybersecurity products for most use cases, up from less than 25% in 2025.

AI data’s 155.4% CAGR signals enterprises are finally investing in foundations. The smallest segment by absolute spending is the fastest-growing because organizations scaling beyond pilots are discovering that AI-ready data isn’t optional. Labeled, annotated, quality-checked. By 2029, 61% of data integration software spend will focus on delivering GenAI-ready data, up from 8% in 2025. Synthetic data becomes dominant. 77% of data used for LLM training will be synthetic by 2029, up from 4% in 2025.

Agentic AI is reshaping software economics. By the end of 2028, software with agentic capabilities crosses 50% of total application software spend, up from 2% in 2024. Starting in 2027, non-agentic software spending declines. Investment in reasoning models underpins 70%+ of agentic AI applications by 2029. Open-source agentic frameworks will power more than 75% of enterprise AI agent deployments by 2028, eroding proprietary platform pricing power.

The inference shift is underway. By 2029, 66% of AI-optimized IaaS spending supports inference, not training. The balance shifts as embedded fine-tuned models become the norm in production applications.

Forecast assumptions by segment

AI Services. By 2029, 50% of all AI projects moving into production will be GenAI-centric, up from 12% in 2025. POC abandonment rates improve from 60% in 2024 to 35% in 2029. Specialized AI services command 20-30% price premiums.

AI Software. From 2027, spending on software without agentic capabilities starts declining. By 2027, one-third of agentic AI implementations will use combinations of agents with different skills for complex tasks.

AI Models. Starting in 2027, the shift toward in-house domain-specific language models constrains new spending in the specialized model market. Open-source model adoption erodes proprietary pricing power through 2029.

AI Platforms. By 2029, over 60% of enterprises will adopt AI agent development platforms to automate complex workflows. By 2030, enterprise application portfolios will include 40% custom applications built using AI-native development platforms, up from 2% in 2025.

AI Infrastructure. Export restrictions keep Chinese ASPs at about 50% of North American levels throughout the forecast. By 2026, NVL72 will become the de facto standard for large clusters. By the end of 2027, all hyperscalers will have reaffirmed Ethernet as their primary networking choice for AI workloads.

Devices. By 2029, more than 99% of PC microprocessors will have integrated on-device AI functionality, up from 15% in 2024. By 2027, efficient small language models will enable advanced GenAI to run locally on smartphones without cloud reliance.

The capital flow

The 2026 Gartner CIO Survey found GenAI and traditional AI among the most common technology areas selected for funding increases. 84% and 81% respectively. Nearly two-thirds of U.S. VC deal value went to AI companies in the first three quarters of 2025.

By 2027, the majority of AI buyers will define business outcomes from project launch. The market matures from technology-first experimentation to outcome-driven deployment. That shift from supply-push to demand-pull separates organizations capturing value from those still running pilots.

The infrastructure buildout continues. The growth signal is clear. Data readiness, security architecture, and agentic capabilities are where the acceleration is happening.

Jan 24

Gartner Predicts AI Software Will Grow To $297 Billion By 2027

Gartner Predicts AI Software Will Grow To $297 Billion By 2027

Gartner Predicts AI Software Will Grow To $297 Billion By 2027

Image created by DALL-E

Predicting global spending on AI software will surge from $124 billion in 2022 to $297 billion in 2027, Gartner forecasts the market will grow at a 19.1% compound annual growth rate in the next six years.

Generative AI (GenAI) software spending is expected to skyrocket from 8% in 2023 to 35% by 2027. GenAI’s rapid growth is attributed to enterprise software vendors integrating AI tools into current and future releases, streamlining the widespread adoption of GenAI-based features and new apps, emerging as the fastest-growing category of AI software.

Gartner predicts the integration of AI tools will be most prevalent in marketing, product design, and customer service, reflecting a shift towards more personalized and efficient operations. The research firm provides an extensive analysis of AI software’s growth areas and opportunities in their recently published report, Forecast Analysis: Artificial Intelligence Software, 2023-2027, Worldwide (client access required). The forecast is based on over 500 AI use cases sourced from Gartner’s AI use case prisms and related research.

What Driving The AI Market Boom?

Key assumptions that are driving the forecast include the prediction that greater than 70% of independent software vendors (ISVs) will have embedded GenAI capabilities in their enterprise applications by 2026, a major jump from fewer than 1% today.

Thirty-nine percent of worldwide organizations will be in the experimentation phase of Gartner’s AI adoption curve by 2025, with 14% being in the expansion phase. Gartner predicts that by 2027, 36% of organizations in the experimentation phase will also start to adopt use cases with high business value but low time-to-financial impact (TOFI).

Another factor driving long-term market growth is how spending on AI software increases with organizational maturity. Gartner notes that organizational maturity is lower today versus the higher hype levels and market interest in AI technologies. As organizations gain greater maturity with AI experimentation, spending will increase.

Gartner Predicts AI Software Will Grow To $297 Billion By 2027

Source: Gartner, Forecast Analysis: Artificial Intelligence Software, 2023-2027, Worldwide

“We expect to see ongoing demand for more AI enhancements within software applications and more opportunities for providers to deliver software to build AI. However, do not expect these markets to become saturated (where supply outstrips demand) during the forecast period,” Gartner’s analysts write in the forecast analysis.

Application areas growing the fastest

Gartner predicts AI spending on financial management system (FMS) components will be the largest application market overall. FMS supports the office of finance with capabilities for forecasting, planning, cash application and collections, balance reconciliation, and others.

FMS vendors are doubling down on AI already to provide proven productivity and optimization support, integrating AI-based features in their apps and platforms. AI’s inherent advantages quickly lead to quantified performance and productivity gains with FMS systems, which are table stakes for building a solid business case for potential customers.

Digital commerce applications are the highest-growth AI application market. Digital commerce applications are designed to streamline commerce operations and related areas, including optimization, customer segmentation, image categorization, and others. Gartner defines the AI capabilities in digital commerce to include personalization, automated execution, and content generation.

Gartner Predicts AI Software Will Grow To $297 Billion By 2027

Source: Gartner, Forecast Analysis: Artificial Intelligence Software, 2023-2027, Worldwide

Predicting Generative AI’s Growth

Gartner is predicting that GenAI will eventually become a cornerstone of all AI software spending, reaching 35% of worldwide revenues by 2027.

The report’s authors point to the proliferation of AI copilots being integrated into a wide variety of enterprise systems as a primary catalyst driving this area of the market’s growth. Copilot systems are in use today within email systems, customer support chatbots, and a wide variety of marketing applications, with content creation and personalization vendors fast-tracking copilots into their apps and platforms.

One of the many data points that support the optimistic growth forecast for GenAI is Microsoft’s success with their Microsoft Dynamics 365 Copilot, launched in March of last year. Since then, more than 130,000 organizations have experienced copilot capabilities in Microsoft Dynamics 365 and Microsoft Power Platform.

Gartner Predicts AI Software Will Grow To $297 Billion By 2027

Source: Gartner, Forecast Analysis: Artificial Intelligence Software, 2023-2027, Worldwide

Large Language Models (LLMs) are the growth catalyst natural language platforms need

Gartner is predicting that the data science and AI platform market will see the greatest amount of software spending in the forecast period. They’ve defined the market as including machine learning (ML) platforms and cloud AI developer services. “The data science and AI platforms market is accelerated by the growth of AI and the democratization of technology, where capabilities like ease of use, workflow, collaboration, and deployment provide support for citizen data scientists,” writes Gartner’s analysts in the report.

The leading AI platforms seeing the greatest growth are natural language technologies (which include LLMs), data science and AI platforms, computer vision platforms, and analytics and BI platforms. LLMs will be the fuel that keeps natural language technology-based platforms growing for the next three years. They’re the emerging workhouses of the AI software market.

Gartner Predicts AI Software Will Grow To $297 Billion By 2027

Source: Gartner, Forecast Analysis: Artificial Intelligence Software, 2023-2027, Worldwide