Calling the hype around cloud computing “deafening”, Gartner released their annual hype cycle for the 34 different technologies in a 75 page analysis today. You can find the Hype Cycle at the end of this post and I’ve provided several of the take-aways below:
- The industry is just beyond the Peak of Inflated Expectations, and headed for the Trough of Disillusionment. The further up the Technology Trigger and Peak of Inflated Expectations curve, the greater the chaotic nature of how technologies are being positioned with widespread confusion throughout markets. The team of analysts who wrote this at Gartner share that conclusion across the many segments of the Hype Cycle.
- Gartner states that nearly every vendor who briefs them has a cloud computing strategy yet few have shown how their strategies are cloud-centric. Cloudwashing on the part of vendors across all 34 technology areas is accelerating the entire industry into the trough of disillusionment. The report cites the Amazon Web Services outage in April, 2011 as a turning point on the hype cycle for example.
- Gartner predicts that the most transformational technologies included in the Hype Cycle will be the following: virtualization within two years; Big Data, Cloud Advertising, Cloud Computing, Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS), and Public Cloud computing between two and five years; and Community Cloud, DevOps, Hybrid Cloud Computing and Real-time Infrastructure in five to ten years.
- There continues to be much confusion with clients relative to hybrid computing. Gartner’s definition is as follows ”Hybrid cloud computing refers to the combination of external public cloud computing services and internal resources (either a private cloud or traditional infrastructure, operations and applications) in a coordinated fashion to assemble a particular solution”. They provide examples of joint security and management, workload/service placement and runtime optimization, and others to further illustrate the complex nature of hybrid computing.
- Big Data is also an area of heavy client inquiry activity that Gartner interprets as massive hype in the market. They are predicting that Big Data will reach the apex of the Peak of Inflated Expectations by 2012. Due to the massive amount of hype surrounding this technology, they predict it will be in the Trough of Disillusionment eventually, as enterprises struggle to get the results they expect.
- By 2015, those companies who have adopted Big Data and extreme information management (their term for this area) will begin to outperform their unprepared competitors by 20% in every available financial metric. Early use cases of Big Data are delivering measurable results and strong ROI. The Hype Cycle did not provide any ROI figures however, which would have been interesting to see.
- PaaS is one of the most highly hyped terms Gartner encounters on client calls, one of the most misunderstood as well, leading to a chaotic market. Gartner does not expect comprehensive PaaS offerings to be part of the mainstream market until 2015. The point is made that there is much confusion in the market over just what PaaS is and its role in the infrastructure stack.
- SaaS performs best for relatively simple tasks in IT-constrained organizations. Gartner warns that the initial two years may be low cost for any SaaS-based application, yet could over time be even more expensive than on-premise software.
- Gartner estimates there are at least 3M Sales Force Automation SaaS users globally today.
Bottom line: The greater the hype, the more the analyst inquiries, and the faster a given technology ascends to the Peak of Inflated Expectations. After reading this analysis it becomes clear that vendors who strive to be accurate, precise, real and relevant are winning deals right now and transcending the hype cycle to close sales. They may not being getting a lot of attention, but they are selling more because enterprises clearly understand their value.
Source: Gartner, Hype Cycle for Cloud Computing, 2011 David Mitchell Smith Publication Date: 27 July 2011 ID Number: G00214915 © 2011
From conservative, single digit adoption rates to hockey-stick projections of exceptional growth, analyst firms, venture capitalists and government ministries are weighing in on how they see cloud adoption progressing.
While each of the adoption rate predictions vary significantly in terms of their methodologies and results, all rely on the assumption that SaaS applications including CRM will continue to gain momentum. The user adoption rates vary on how fast the momentum is, yet all share this assumption. Speed, increased user adoption rates, and the ability to more closely align software to business goals are cited most often as the biggest benefits.
Where the projections vary most is whether enterprises will eventually migrate the majority of their applications to the cloud or not. Forrester, Gartner and others see a hybrid cloud architecture emerging in the enterprise and forcing the issue of legacy systems migration by 2015. As would be expected, vendor-driven research sees an “all or nothing” world in the near future.
Wanting to see how reliable the figures were showing rapid cloud adoption in the enterprise, I did a quick sanity check. Taking the distribution of sales by segment for Salesforce.com and their annual revenue growth rate, then normalizing it across all segments, enterprise emerges as their strongest segment by a wide margin in 2015. It had a 15%+ compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2011 – 2015 just taking their current sales by segment distribution of sales and extrapolating forward. Data points like this and the market factors behind them is why SaaS is often used in these studies as a leading indicator of broader cloud adoption.
Adoption Rate Round-Up
- Forrester found that SaaS will outgrow all other cloud services, achieving 37% adoption in 2011 growing to 50% by 2012. In previous studies Forrester has shown that SaaS is a major growth catalyst of ongoing investment in IaaS and PaaS in enterprises. Source: Source: Forrsights: The Software Market In Transformation, 2011 And Beyond Shifting Buying Preferences Lead To New Software Priorities by Holger Kisker, Ph.D. with Pascal Matzke, Stefan Ried, Ph.D., Miroslaw Lisserman Link: http://bit.ly/ijJy70 The following table is from the report:
- Microsoft Global SMB Cloud Adoption Study released in March, 2011 is one of the most comprehensive done this year on this topic. Of the many findings, the study predicts 39 % of SMBs expect to be paying for one or more cloud services within three years). One of the best studies on cloud adoptions done this year Source: Study Results Document (PDF (22 pages): http://bit.ly/gN8yTx
- North Bridge Venture Partners, GigaOM PRO and over a dozen research partners completed the study The Future of Cloud Computing 2011. The study found 13% expressed high level of confidence in cloud computing for enterprise applications, with 40% experimenting and 10% saying they will never use cloud-based platforms as they are too risky. A presentation of the results can be found here:
- Springboard Research (Forrester) completed a study of cloud computing adoption in Asia finding 31% of companies with 50 or fewer PCs will adopt cloud-based applications in 18 months, 56% with up to 500 PCs. The key findings are available for download from the source URL below the infographic.
Microsoft Asia is making this available for download here: http://bit.ly/jWjOj1
- TechTarget published their analysis of virtualization and cloud computing adoption in the study, State of virtualization and cloud computing: 2011. Of the many findings, a few of the most significant is how pervasive VMware ESXi 4 and later (vSphere) is throughout enterprises today. The study also shows that 7% of those interviewed had implemented cloud computing in 2010, growing to 9% in 2011 – quite conservative compared to many of the other adoption rate analyses completed. You can find the results here: http://searchdatacenter.techtarget.com/feature/State-of-virtualization-and-cloud-computing-2011
- Yankee Group has found that in 2011, 41 percent of very large enterprises (more than 10,000 employees) have already deployed or are considering deployment of platform as a service (PaaS) within the next 12 months, compared to just 32 percent in 2010. They have also found that mobility is most significant factor driving cloud adoption in the enterprise. Source: http://professional.wsj.com/article/TPCHWKNW0020110722e77q0004d.html
Gartner’s latest forecast of the public cloud services market predicts that by 2015, this worldwide market will be worth $176.8 billion, achieving a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.9%.
Their latest forecast is based on defining the public cloud services market from revenue generation, not an IT spending perspective. This is in contrast to the public cloud services forecast IDC also released this week, stating that public IT cloud services spending would reach $72.9B by 2015. Of the two approaches, the one that is revenue-based delivers a more granular, detailed look at Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) and Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) challenges and opportunities for growth (see tables below for details). The Gartner report, Public Cloud Services, Worldwide and Regions, Industry Sectors, 2010-2015, 2011 Update, was published on June 29, 2011.
Gartner’s decision to base their methodology on revenue generated versus pure IT spending opens up the potential to evaluate entirely new business models based on services growth. The forecast is based on revenue either directly or indirectly generated from the sales of services and from sales to enterprise or consumers. Business process services are defined in this forecast as any process that can be delivered as a service over a scalable, elastic and secure connection over the web. This includes advertising, payroll, printing, e-c0mmerce, in addition to applying applications and systems infrastructure. Presented below are key take-aways and analysis from the reports.
- By 2015, the total market will be worth $176.8 billion, which represents a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2010 of 18.9%. The largest part of this is revenue derived from advertising that is used to provide IT services ($77.1 billion in 2015), which represents an addition to the total size of the IT market.
- The transition of software from licensed to service models continues, but it has yet to reach breakthrough proportions (9.6% in 2010, rising to 13.8% in 2015). Traditional outsourcing services also continue to transition to cloud delivery models, involving a high degree of service standardization. Gartner continues to take a conservative view of revenue recognition in terms of SaaS adoption compared to other research firms as is shown in the following table.
- Application and systems infrastructure are projected to grow the fastest in terms of revenue generation through 2015, with advertising-related revenue being a significant proportion of the total public cloud services market through the forecast period. The following table breaks out public cloud revenue globally by business process services, applications, application infrastructure and systems infrastructure.
- The high-tech, manufacturing and financial services sectors and the public sector will continue to be the most-aggressive adopters of cloud services through 2015. Presented below is a table comparing cloud services revenue by industry sector.
- The North American market continues to be, by far, the largest regional market representing 60% of the global market currently, but growth in China remains of interesting potential.
- Financial services organizations in aggregate represent the largest users of public cloud services.
- Some smaller countries will demonstrate very high growth (more than 25%) in e-commerce cloud services, because of high growth in underlying retail e-commerce. The Census Bureau of the U.S. Department of Commerce estimates that e-commerce sales in the fourth quarter of 2010 accounted for 4.3% of total U.S. retail sales.
Bottom line: Taking a revenue-based approach to defining cloud services shows how critical the application and system infrastructure is to overall market growth. Gartner predicts the fastest growing revenue generating segment of public clouds will be storage services (89.5%) followed by Compute Services (47.8%) and supply management (39.5%).
Today Cloud.com, Zenoss and BitNami released the results of a recent survey to determine the key IT objectives and obstacles to cloud adoption. The survey respondent base consisted of the development communities from BitNami, CloudStack and Zenoss Core, all open source projects, and included more than 500 IT professionals. For an analysis of the results see Cloud Computing Survey Finds Scalability and Cost Savings Driving Cloud Adoption on CloudTweaks.com. The following Infographic is based on the survey results.
Forecasting the global public cloud market is growing from $25.5B in 2011 to $159.3B in 2020 in the report Sizing the Cloud, Understanding And Quantifying the Future of Cloud Computing (April, 2011), Forrester Research has taken on the ambitious task of forecasting each subsegment of their cloud taxonomy. Forrester defines the public cloud as IT resources that are delivered as services via the public Internet in a standardized, self-service and pay-per-use way. The aggregate results of their forecasts are shown in the attached graphic.
The forecast range is from 2008 to 2020 and I’ve included several of the highlights from the study below:
- Forrester breaks out Business Process-as-a-Service (BPaaS) in their public cloud taxonomy, not aggregating this area of cloud computing into IaaS or PaaS. This is unique as other research firms have not broken out this component in their cloud market taxonomies, choosing to include Business Process Management (BPM) as part of either infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) or platform-as-a-service (PaaS) subsegments. Forrester is predicting this category will grow from $800M in 2012 to $10.02B in 2020.
- SaaS is quickly becoming a catalyst of PaaS and IaaS growth, growing from $33B in 2012 to $132.5B in 2020, representing 26% of the total packaged software market by 2016. Forrester is predicting that SaaS will also be the primary innovative force in public cloud adoption, creating applications that can be tailored at the user level. Forrester is bullish on public cloud growth overall, and their optimistic outlook can be attributed to the assumption of cloud-based applications being configurable at the user level, with little to no enterprise-wide customization required.
- PaaS is forecasted to grow from $2.08B in 2012 to $11.91B in 2020. Forrester is defining PaaS as a complete preintegrated platform used for the development and operations of general purpose business applications. The research firm sees the primary growth catalyst of PaaS being corporate application development beginning this year. By the end of the forecast period, 2020, up to 15% of all corporate application development will be on this platform according to the report findings.
- IaaS will experience rapid commoditization during the forecast period, declining after 2014. Forrester reports that this is the second-largest public cloud subsegment today globally, valued at $2.9B, projected to grow to $5.85B by 2015. After that point in the forecast, Forester predicts consolidation and commoditization in the market, leading to a forecast of $4.7B in 2020.
Frank Gens, Senior Vice President & Chief Analyst for IDC, shares insights from his firm’s predictions for 2011 and beyond in the areas of cloud computing, Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS), public and private cloud services.
Here are a few of the many take-aways in this 5 minute video:
- Public cloud services adoption will grow at over five times the rate of the IT industry to $29B in 2011, up 30% from 2010 reaching $55B by 2014. E-mail and collaboration will be the foundation, and entirely new application segments will drive incremental growth.
- Private cloud services will grow to $13B in 2011, growing much faster than public cloud. IDC predicts that Salesforce.com and Google will partner with infrastructure providers to create private cloud appliances of their public cloud offerings.
- 15% of industry revenue and 30% of industry growth will be from public and private cloud services in 2011.
- Cloud management systems and solutions will embrace public and private clouds and will see Accenture, Cisco, CA, IBM, Microsoft, Oracle and others enter this market with enterprise-ready solutions in the next year.
- On-premise applications will go through a transformation of supporting private cloud integration, providing enterprise accounts with the option of migrating to the cloud if they choose to.
- The term “cloud computing” as a buzzword will be gone by 2012, as these technologies are expected to become ubiquitous.
Mark Russinovich is a Technical Fellow working on the Windows Azure team and is considered one of the leading experts on its architecture. He is currently working on the Windows Azure Fabric Controller, which handles kernel-level tasks for the platform. He explains the functions of the Fabric Controller in detail during the following video, illustrating concepts with references to data centers and legacy Microsoft operating systems.
Windows Azure: Platform as a Service
This discussion also highlights how Windows Azure is being designed to scale for HPC-based instances and applications. At 45 minutes, this is a great overview of the latest status on Windows Azure platform development from one of the leading software architects at Microsoft. Despite how technical the discussion becomes at times, Mark Russinovich does a great job of referring back to what it means to data center requirements and simplifying complex concepts through examples.
Source attribution: http://channel9.msdn.com/Shows/Going+Deep/Mark-Russinovich-Windows-Azure-Cloud-Operating-Systems-and-Platform-as-a-Service